“一带一路”建设对沿线国家经济增长的影响效果与中介路径

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.03.2020004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学评估“一带一路”建设对沿线国家经济增长的影响效果与中介路径，对理解国际合作模式、推动“一带一路”建设向高质量发展转变具有重要意义。基于2003—2017年“一带一路”沿线64个国家的相关数据，采用固定效应面板模型和中介效应检验程序，实证检验了“一带一路”建设对沿线国家经济增长的总体性影响效果，并分析对外直接投资、进出口贸易、交通运输、就业等中介因素之间的作用关系。研究结果表明：2013—2017年间“一带一路”建设能够显著地促进沿线国家的经济增长，但新建交通基础设施线路长度、中国对外直接投资等对沿线国家GDP增长的直接促进作用并不显著。它主要通过推动中国与沿线国家之间的贸易增长，对沿线国家内部的货物资源流动、人口就业率、就业结构等产生积极影响，进而促进沿线国家的GDP增长。

关键词: “一带一路”建设, 沿线国家, 经济增长, 中介效应, 面板数据模型, 区域合作

Abstract:

A scientific assessment of the effect and mediating paths of the "Belt and Road Initiative"(BRI) on the economic growth of the Belt and Road (B&R) countries is of great guiding significance to optimize the international cooperation mode, enhance the sense of gain for people in the B&R countries, and promote the transformation of BRI construction to high-quality development in the future. Based on relevant data for the 64 B&R countries during 2003-2017, using fixed effect panel model and mediation effect test, this article empirically tested the effects of the BRI on the economic growth and analyzed relationships among the mediating variables including foreign direct investment, import and export trade, transportation, and employment. Results show that the BRI construction could significantly promote the economic growth of the B&R countries,by promoting the import and export trade between China and the B&R countries,especially China's export trade, which had a significant and positive impact on flow of goods and resources, the employment rate of the population aged more than 15 and the employment structure. As for the mediating path consisting of the BRI, China's export trade, and economic growth of the B&R countries, it might be due to development stage of the BRI and characteristics of the Chinese enterprises invested in the B&R countries. At early stage of the BRI, the Chinese enterprise would like to import relevant machinery and equipment from China in order to complete the infrastructure constructions as soon as possible. The trade between China and the B&R countries had significantly increased the number of employees in the service industry. Another interesting finding is that the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from China did not have a significant impact on the economic growth of the B&R countries. The main reason for explaining this effect may be that in the early stage of the BRI, the OFDI from China was mainly used for infrastructure constructions, such as the highways, industrial parks and factory buildings, which had not been put into use.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, B&R countries, economic growth, mediation effect, panel data model, regional cooperation

公丕萍, 姜超. “一带一路”建设对沿线国家经济增长的影响效果与中介路径[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(3): 465-477.

Peiping GONG, Chao JIANG. The effect and mediating path of the "Belt & Road Initiative" (BRI) on the economic growth of BRI countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(3): 465-477.

图/表 7

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变量类型	具体变量	单位	N	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	GDP	十亿美元	949	156.54	308.01	0.54	2600.82
核心解释变量	“一带一路”建设虚拟变量	/	960	0.33	0.47	0.00	1.00
中介变量	中国对外直接投资存量	千万美元	896	83.41	278.36	0.00	4456.81
	中国出口额	千万美元	953	600.14	1100.39	0.02	7161.73
	中国进口额	千万美元	952	481.00	996.06	0.00	6213.66
	中国进出口总额	千万美元	952	1081.77	1975.05	0.02	12199.19
	铁路线路长度	百千米	535	79.83	160.10	2.51	855.42
	铁路货运周转量	千吨公里	545	84.00	338.72	0.00	2400.00
	航空货运周转量	百吨公里	861	6.71	19.09	0.00	165.17
	15岁以上人口就业率	/	960	54.83	12.56	29.36	87.42
	农业从业人员占比	%	960	24.83	20.43	0.12	80.69
	工业从业人员占比	%	960	23.90	9.17	2.72	59.58
	服务业从业人员占比	%	960	51.27	15.39	14.92	83.59
控制变量	人口数量	百万人	960	46.99	156.09	0.30	1339.18
	人口密度	人/平方公里	960	280.95	907.22	1.59	7915.73
	人口抚养比	/	960	52.07	15.29	16.45	109.82
	政府效能百分位排名	/	958	47.77	24.30	0.98	100.00

变量类型	具体变量	单位	N	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	GDP	十亿美元	949	156.54	308.01	0.54	2600.82
核心解释变量	“一带一路”建设虚拟变量	/	960	0.33	0.47	0.00	1.00
中介变量	中国对外直接投资存量	千万美元	896	83.41	278.36	0.00	4456.81
	中国出口额	千万美元	953	600.14	1100.39	0.02	7161.73
	中国进口额	千万美元	952	481.00	996.06	0.00	6213.66
	中国进出口总额	千万美元	952	1081.77	1975.05	0.02	12199.19
	铁路线路长度	百千米	535	79.83	160.10	2.51	855.42
	铁路货运周转量	千吨公里	545	84.00	338.72	0.00	2400.00
	航空货运周转量	百吨公里	861	6.71	19.09	0.00	165.17
	15岁以上人口就业率	/	960	54.83	12.56	29.36	87.42
	农业从业人员占比	%	960	24.83	20.43	0.12	80.69
	工业从业人员占比	%	960	23.90	9.17	2.72	59.58
	服务业从业人员占比	%	960	51.27	15.39	14.92	83.59
控制变量	人口数量	百万人	960	46.99	156.09	0.30	1339.18
	人口密度	人/平方公里	960	280.95	907.22	1.59	7915.73
	人口抚养比	/	960	52.07	15.29	16.45	109.82
	政府效能百分位排名	/	958	47.77	24.30	0.98	100.00

变量	被解释变量：GDP
变量	回归系数	标准误	T统计量	P值
“一带一路”建设	21.079	6.855	3.08	0.002
人口数量	8.372	0.310	26.96	0.000
人口密度	0.073	0.031	2.35	0.019
人口抚养比	-1.313	0.762	-1.72	0.085
政府效能百分位排名	1.461	0.546	2.67	0.008
F统计量	159.23		Prob>F	0.000
R²	0.925		调整R²	0.919
N	947
Hausman检验	Chi²=287.97		Prob>Chi²	0.000

变量	被解释变量：GDP
变量	回归系数	标准误	T统计量	P值
“一带一路”建设	21.079	6.855	3.08	0.002
人口数量	8.372	0.310	26.96	0.000
人口密度	0.073	0.031	2.35	0.019
人口抚养比	-1.313	0.762	-1.72	0.085
政府效能百分位排名	1.461	0.546	2.67	0.008
F统计量	159.23		Prob>F	0.000
R²	0.925		调整R²	0.919
N	947
Hausman检验	Chi²=287.97		Prob>Chi²	0.000

因素	（1） GDP	（2）中国 OFDI存量	（3）中国进口	（4）中国出口	（5）中国进出口	（6）GDP	（7）GDP	（8）GDP	（9）GDP	（10）GDP	（11）GDP
“一带一路”建设	21.079^*** （6.855）	90.369^*** (12.174)	180.601^*** (34.607)	291.489^*** (36.019)	472.292^*** (65.927)	9.960 (7.312)	1.923 （5.859）	-9.631 （5.919）	-7.619 （5.711）	-10.190 （6.134）	-10.445 （6.181）
中国OFDI存量						0.126^*** (0.020)				0.019 （0.017）	0.019 （0.017）
中国进口							0.106^*** （0.006）				0.057^*** （0.008）
中国出口								0.104^*** （0.005）			10.39^*** (0.52)
中国进出口									0.060^*** （0.003）	0.060^*** （0.003）
Sobel 检验										1.080 （1.580）	1.100 （1.577）
控制变量	有	有	有	有	有	有	有	有	有	有	有
N	947	896	952	953	952	885	941	942	941	885	885
调整R²	0.919	0.688	0.795	0.818	0.811	0.922	0.943	0.944	0.947	0.947	0.947