基于GDELT事件数据的东南亚国家地缘政治风险测度与分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.04.20222102

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着我国“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡议的持续推进，对海外地缘政治风险研究的需求也与日俱增。东南亚地区是“一带一路”建设重点地区，地缘环境十分复杂，地缘政治事件频发。通过事件分析刻画东南亚国家地缘政治风险的等级，并分析其时空特征有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究发现：①东南亚地缘政治风险总体稳定可控，但内部时空差异较大。菲律宾和缅甸的地缘风险水平相对较高，老挝、新加坡、东帝汶和越南较低，其他国家则处于波动状态。②印尼、柬、泰、马等四国地缘政治风险受内部事件影响高于其他五国，国家内部问题亟待解决；文莱、老挝、东帝汶、越南和新加坡等五国地缘政治风险受外部事件影响较高，内部环境相对较为稳定。③东南亚国家地缘政治风险受外部事件影响远高于内部事件影响，其中外部事件主要来自美国、中国和澳大利亚等域外国家，域内国家占比较低，主要来自泰国和马来西亚。研究结果为掌握东南亚地缘政治风险情况与保障“一带一路”建设提供科学支撑。

关键词: 地缘政治, 地缘政治风险, 风险测度, GDELT, 东南亚

Abstract:

With the continuous promotion of China's " going out " strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative, the demand for overseas geopolitical risk research is also increasing. Southeast Asia is a key region for the Belt and Road Initiative, with a complicated geographical environment and frequent geopolitical incidents. Based on geopolitical events, this paper proposes a geopolitical risk measurement method, taking Southeast Asia as an example to measure and analyze its spatio-temporal characteristics. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) Geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia are generally stable and controllable, but the spatio-temporal differences are large. It is relatively high in the Philippines and Myanmar, low in Laos, Singapore, Timor-Leste and Vietnam, and fluctuating in other countries. (2) The geopolitical risks of Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia are more affected by internal events than those of the other five countries. Internal problems need to be solved urgently. Brunei, Laos, Timor-Leste, Vietnam and Singapore have high geopolitical risks affected by external events and relatively stable internal environments. (3) The geopolitical risks of South Asian countries are much more affected by external events than internal events, among which external events mainly come from countries outside the region such as the United States, China and Australia, while countries within the region account for a relatively low proportion, mainly from Thailand and Malaysia. The results of this study provide scientific support for grasping the geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia and ensuring the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: geopolitics, geopolitical risk, risk evaluation, GDELT, Southeast Asia

杜树坤, 张晶, 韩志军, 王琳洁, 唐代红. 基于GDELT事件数据的东南亚国家地缘政治风险测度与分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(4): 13-23.

Shukun DU, Jing ZHANG, Zhijun HAN, Linjie WANG, Daihong TANG. Measurement and analysis of geopolitical risk in Southeast Asian countries based on GDELT event data[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(4): 13-23.

图/表 5

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类型	地缘政治风险事件的CAMEO编码
外部事件	024呼吁政治改革、025呼吁妥协、028呼吁接受调解、09调查、104要求政治改革、105要求目标妥协、11批评、13威胁、15展示军事力量、16降低关系、17胁迫、18攻击、19军事对抗、20非传统大规模暴力
内部事件	024呼吁政治改革、025呼吁妥协、104要求政治改革、105要求目标妥协、112谴责、113集体反对、123拒绝政治改革、124拒绝让步、125拒绝开会讨论谈判、127拒绝协议解决争端、128公然反抗准则法律、13威胁、14抗议、15展示军事力量、17胁迫、18攻击、19军事对抗、20非传统大规模暴力

类型	地缘政治风险事件的CAMEO编码
外部事件	024呼吁政治改革、025呼吁妥协、028呼吁接受调解、09调查、104要求政治改革、105要求目标妥协、11批评、13威胁、15展示军事力量、16降低关系、17胁迫、18攻击、19军事对抗、20非传统大规模暴力
内部事件	024呼吁政治改革、025呼吁妥协、104要求政治改革、105要求目标妥协、112谴责、113集体反对、123拒绝政治改革、124拒绝让步、125拒绝开会讨论谈判、127拒绝协议解决争端、128公然反抗准则法律、13威胁、14抗议、15展示军事力量、17胁迫、18攻击、19军事对抗、20非传统大规模暴力

国家	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	平均值
文莱	95:5	95:5	97:3	96:4	96:4	98:2	98:2	98:2	95:5	99:1	97:3
越南	92:8	94:6	93:7	95:5	94:6	94:6	94:6	93:7	93:7	92:8	97:3
老挝	94:6	89:11	88:12	93:7	92:8	93:7	93:7	93:7	93:7	93:7	92:8
东帝汶	93:7	85:15	90:10	90:10	95:5	94:6	95:5	94:6	91:9	96:4	92:8
新加坡	88:12	91:9	89:11	90:10	88:12	89:11	89:11	90:10	88:12	89:11	89:11
马来西亚	87:13	86:14	84:16	87:13	84:16	83:17	83:17	81:19	84:16	83:17	84:16
缅甸	78:22	83:17	82:18	81:19	81:19	80:20	87:13	87:13	84:16	83:17	83:17
泰国	83:17	84:16	82:18	81:19	79:21	81:19	79:21	84:16	81:19	77:23	81:19
菲律宾	82:18	84:16	84:16	80:20	79:21	79:21	79:21	78:22	79:21	78:22	80:20
印度尼西亚	81:19	81:19	80:20	80:20	81:19	79:21	80:20	79:21	77:23	76:24	79:21
柬埔寨	81:19	77:23	74:26	76:24	76:24	76:24	74:26	71:29	76:24	77:23	76:24

国家	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	平均值
文莱	95:5	95:5	97:3	96:4	96:4	98:2	98:2	98:2	95:5	99:1	97:3
越南	92:8	94:6	93:7	95:5	94:6	94:6	94:6	93:7	93:7	92:8	97:3
老挝	94:6	89:11	88:12	93:7	92:8	93:7	93:7	93:7	93:7	93:7	92:8
东帝汶	93:7	85:15	90:10	90:10	95:5	94:6	95:5	94:6	91:9	96:4	92:8
新加坡	88:12	91:9	89:11	90:10	88:12	89:11	89:11	90:10	88:12	89:11	89:11
马来西亚	87:13	86:14	84:16	87:13	84:16	83:17	83:17	81:19	84:16	83:17	84:16
缅甸	78:22	83:17	82:18	81:19	81:19	80:20	87:13	87:13	84:16	83:17	83:17
泰国	83:17	84:16	82:18	81:19	79:21	81:19	79:21	84:16	81:19	77:23	81:19
菲律宾	82:18	84:16	84:16	80:20	79:21	79:21	79:21	78:22	79:21	78:22	80:20
印度尼西亚	81:19	81:19	80:20	80:20	81:19	79:21	80:20	79:21	77:23	76:24	79:21
柬埔寨	81:19	77:23	74:26	76:24	76:24	76:24	74:26	71:29	76:24	77:23	76:24

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