Decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in BRICS countries: Based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model analysis

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.03.2019470

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on BRICS carbon emission panel data in 1987-2017, Tapio index model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, and combines IPAT equation and LMDI model were used to decompose driving factors affecting carbon emissions. Result showed that BRICS countries generally showed a trend of decoupling from weak decoupling to strong decoupling.Decoupling relationships of carbon emissions in China, India and Russia were weak decoupling, while that of South Africa and Brazil were strong and expansion negative decoupling. Economic strength and population factor were main positive drivers of carbon emissions, and energy intensity factor had a restraining effect on carbon emissions. Therefore, increasing technology input, improving energy efficiency and strictly controlling high-energy consumption industries is vital for emission reduction work.

Key words: carbon emissions, Tapio decoupling model, LMDI model, BRICS countries

摘要：

在金砖国家低碳转型的压力之下，把握碳排放驱动因素、明确碳排放与经济增长的相关性从而完善减排政策迫在眉睫。基于1987—2017年金砖国家碳排放面板数据，采用Tapio脱钩模型分析经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系变化，进一步结合IPAT方程和LMDI模型分解影响碳排放量变化的驱动因素。研究表明：金砖国家整体上呈现由负脱钩到弱脱钩再到强脱钩的变化趋势，现阶段中国、印度和俄罗斯碳排放脱钩关系为弱脱钩，南非和巴西的碳排放脱钩分别为强脱钩和扩张负脱钩，金砖国家之间脱钩关系存在阶段性差异；经济强度因素和人口因素是碳排放的主要正向驱动因素，能源强度因素则对碳排放具有抑制作用，金砖国家之间驱动因素的作用程度存在显著差异。因此，可以从增加技术投入、提高能源利用效率、严控高能耗产业、构建减排工作国际合作平台等方面入手促进金砖国家减排。

关键词: 碳排放, Tapio脱钩, LMDI模型, 金砖国家

Jie WANG, Zhiguo LI, Jijian GU. Decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in BRICS countries: Based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model analysis[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(3): 501-508.

王杰, 李治国, 谷继建. 金砖国家碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性及驱动因素——基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI模型的分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(3): 501-508.

Figures/Tables 6

Tab.1 Decoupling state division

脱钩状态		∆C/C	∆GDP/GDP	$φ C, G D P$
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	+	+	(1.2, +∞)
	强负脱钩	+	-	(-∞,0)
	弱负脱钩	-	-	[0,0.8)
脱钩	弱脱钩	+	+	[0,0.8)
	强脱钩	-	+	(-∞,0)
	衰退脱钩	-	-	(1.2,+ ∞)
连结	扩张连结	+	+	[0.8,1.2]
	衰退连结	-	-	[0.8,1.2]

Tab.1 Decoupling state division

脱钩状态		∆C/C	∆GDP/GDP	$φ C, G D P$
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	+	+	(1.2, +∞)
	强负脱钩	+	-	(-∞,0)
	弱负脱钩	-	-	[0,0.8)
脱钩	弱脱钩	+	+	[0,0.8)
	强脱钩	-	+	(-∞,0)
	衰退脱钩	-	-	(1.2,+ ∞)
连结	扩张连结	+	+	[0.8,1.2]
	衰退连结	-	-	[0.8,1.2]

Fig.1 Total carbon emissions and global share of BRICS countries

Fig.2 Growth rate of carbon emissions in the BRICS， 1987 -2017

Tab.2 Decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth and decoupling elastic change of driving factors in BRICS countries

阶段	国家	C变化率	GDP变化率	脱钩指数	脱钩类型	ΔEp弹性	ΔEg弹性	ΔEe弹性	ΔEc弹性
1987—1992	中国	0.056344	0.09458	0.595732	弱脱钩	0.198737	0.781805	-0.40361	0.018798
	印度	0.101719	0.053998	1.88377	扩张负脱钩	0.628737	0.373544	0.805283	0.076205
	南非	0.001434	0.084685	0.016931	弱脱钩	0.442012	0.526136	0.368511	-1.31973
	俄罗斯	-0.0212	-0.05469	0.387686	弱负脱钩	-0.17309	1.05078	-0.74628	0.256284
	巴西	0.042561	-0.00963	-4.42083	强负脱钩	-4.08225	5.087223	-9.55606	4.130251
1992—1998	中国	0.021202	0.097667	0.217081	弱脱钩	0.104495	0.861617	-0.76047	0.011436
	印度	0.056902	0.068105	0.83551	扩张连接	0.301547	0.692098	-0.15366	-0.00448
	南非	0.04395	0.026965	1.629908	扩张负脱钩	1.02434	-0.02503	-0.63268	1.263276
	俄罗斯	0.013433	-0.02969	-0.45245	强负脱钩	-0.01074	1.008644	-1.81605	0.365697
	巴西	0.103426	0.038295	2.700789	扩张负脱钩	1.112982	-0.10549	1.91527	-0.22197
1998—2004	中国	0.10122	0.095881	1.055686	扩张负脱钩	0.07186	0.933624	0.072157	-0.02195
	印度	0.036105	0.060312	0.598634	弱脱钩	0.31809	0.669609	-0.5681	0.179038
	南非	0.023707	0.038898	0.609459	弱脱钩	0.32922	0.662719	-0.70071	0.318233
	俄罗斯	0.017173	0.067806	0.253262	弱脱钩	-0.06548	1.035752	-0.81833	0.101322
	巴西	0.008693	0.020527	0.423494	弱脱钩	0.462871	0.536219	-0.19364	-0.38196
2004—2010	中国	0.074871	0.110331	0.678604	弱脱钩	0.047908	0.936853	-0.28276	-0.02339
	印度	0.079099	0.067286	1.175566	扩张连接	0.251441	0.749864	0.241782	-0.06752
	南非	0.035932	0.032985	1.089341	扩张连接	1.263745	-0.29676	-0.9766	-0.44447
	俄罗斯	0.019051	0.038184	0.498935	弱脱钩	0.254221	0.698502	0.32511	-0.63912
	巴西	0.356983	0.04418	8.080175	扩张负脱钩	-0.91394	1.915206	0.667419	6.41149
2010—2017	中国	0.007729	0.072201	0.107045	弱脱钩	0.072812	0.896699	-0.62236	-0.2401
	印度	0.052997	0.070325	0.753613	弱脱钩	0.286205	0.704815	-0.2996	0.062189
	南非	-0.03006	0.066204	-0.45408	强脱钩	1.263745	-0.29676	-0.9766	-0.44447
	俄罗斯	0.083405	0.130583	0.638714	弱脱钩	0.254221	0.698502	0.32511	-0.63912
	巴西	0.002035	0.000631	3.223295	扩张负脱钩	0.403176	0.605097	0.549841	1.66518

Tab.2 Decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth and decoupling elastic change of driving factors in BRICS countries

阶段	国家	C变化率	GDP变化率	脱钩指数	脱钩类型	ΔEp弹性	ΔEg弹性	ΔEe弹性	ΔEc弹性
1987—1992	中国	0.056344	0.09458	0.595732	弱脱钩	0.198737	0.781805	-0.40361	0.018798
	印度	0.101719	0.053998	1.88377	扩张负脱钩	0.628737	0.373544	0.805283	0.076205
	南非	0.001434	0.084685	0.016931	弱脱钩	0.442012	0.526136	0.368511	-1.31973
	俄罗斯	-0.0212	-0.05469	0.387686	弱负脱钩	-0.17309	1.05078	-0.74628	0.256284
	巴西	0.042561	-0.00963	-4.42083	强负脱钩	-4.08225	5.087223	-9.55606	4.130251
1992—1998	中国	0.021202	0.097667	0.217081	弱脱钩	0.104495	0.861617	-0.76047	0.011436
	印度	0.056902	0.068105	0.83551	扩张连接	0.301547	0.692098	-0.15366	-0.00448
	南非	0.04395	0.026965	1.629908	扩张负脱钩	1.02434	-0.02503	-0.63268	1.263276
	俄罗斯	0.013433	-0.02969	-0.45245	强负脱钩	-0.01074	1.008644	-1.81605	0.365697
	巴西	0.103426	0.038295	2.700789	扩张负脱钩	1.112982	-0.10549	1.91527	-0.22197
1998—2004	中国	0.10122	0.095881	1.055686	扩张负脱钩	0.07186	0.933624	0.072157	-0.02195
	印度	0.036105	0.060312	0.598634	弱脱钩	0.31809	0.669609	-0.5681	0.179038
	南非	0.023707	0.038898	0.609459	弱脱钩	0.32922	0.662719	-0.70071	0.318233
	俄罗斯	0.017173	0.067806	0.253262	弱脱钩	-0.06548	1.035752	-0.81833	0.101322
	巴西	0.008693	0.020527	0.423494	弱脱钩	0.462871	0.536219	-0.19364	-0.38196
2004—2010	中国	0.074871	0.110331	0.678604	弱脱钩	0.047908	0.936853	-0.28276	-0.02339
	印度	0.079099	0.067286	1.175566	扩张连接	0.251441	0.749864	0.241782	-0.06752
	南非	0.035932	0.032985	1.089341	扩张连接	1.263745	-0.29676	-0.9766	-0.44447
	俄罗斯	0.019051	0.038184	0.498935	弱脱钩	0.254221	0.698502	0.32511	-0.63912
	巴西	0.356983	0.04418	8.080175	扩张负脱钩	-0.91394	1.915206	0.667419	6.41149
2010—2017	中国	0.007729	0.072201	0.107045	弱脱钩	0.072812	0.896699	-0.62236	-0.2401
	印度	0.052997	0.070325	0.753613	弱脱钩	0.286205	0.704815	-0.2996	0.062189
	南非	-0.03006	0.066204	-0.45408	强脱钩	1.263745	-0.29676	-0.9766	-0.44447
	俄罗斯	0.083405	0.130583	0.638714	弱脱钩	0.254221	0.698502	0.32511	-0.63912
	巴西	0.002035	0.000631	3.223295	扩张负脱钩	0.403176	0.605097	0.549841	1.66518

Fig.3 The decomposition of carbon emission driving factors in BRICS

Fig.4 Carbon emission driving effect accumulation in BRICS

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