The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the Muslim population in China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.06.2020182

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of six national censuses, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the county-level Muslim population in China by using spatial statistical analysis methods. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of Muslim population density in China is characterized by "patch-point-area" structure. The traditional agglomeration area is a high-value area of Muslim population. The sporadic high-value areas are mainly concentrated in the North China Plain, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Liaohe Plain and the southeastern coastal areas, while the other areas in the country are low-value areas of Muslim population density. (2) The spatial distribution of Muslim population in China has a certain spatial correlation characteristics. It is a hot spot in Xinjiang, Ningxia Plain, Huangshui Valley, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces and Beijing. (3) The distribution of the Muslim population is highly unbalanced. With the development of the migration and spread of the Muslim population across the country, the degree of imbalance tends to weaken; the shift in the growth of the Muslim population among the major regions of China has experienced an increase first. In the process of declining and rapid growth, the Muslim population in various places has shown a trend of differentiated development. (4) The distribution and evolution of the Muslim population is affected by multiple factors such as the fertility level and population migration status. Differentiated fertility levels and population migration affect the spatial redistribution of the Muslim population.

Key words: Muslim population, spatial distribution pattern, spatial autocorrelation, shift share analysis

摘要：

基于六次全国人口普查数据资料，通过运用空间统计分析方法，对中国县级行政单元穆斯林人口的空间分布及演变特征进行分析。结果发现：（1）中国穆斯林人口密度的空间分布具有“片-点-区”的结构特征，即在穆斯林人口传统分布区形成高值片区，华北平原、云贵高原、辽河平原和东南沿海等区域形成零星分布的高值点区，在全国其他区域形成穆斯林人口密度低值区；（2）中国穆斯林人口空间分布具有一定的空间关联特征，在新疆、宁夏、青海东部、甘肃西南云贵两省交汇处及北京市等区域形成热点分布区；（3）穆斯林人口分布处于高度不均衡的状态，随着穆斯林人口向全国迁移扩散的发展，其不均衡程度趋于减弱；中国各大区之间的穆斯林人口偏移增长量经历了先增后减又迅速增长的过程，各地穆斯林人口表现出差异化发展趋势；（4）穆斯林人口分布及演变受生育水平和人口迁移状况等多种因素的综合影响，差异化的生育水平和人口迁移流动影响着穆斯林人口的空间再分布。

关键词: 穆斯林人口, 空间分布格局, 空间自相关, 偏移-分享分析

Xinxian WANG, Xiangdong GAO. The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the Muslim population in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(6): 1297-1307.

王新贤, 高向东. 中国穆斯林人口空间分布及演变特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(6): 1297-1307.

Figures/Tables 9

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民族	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000	2010
回族	353.05	447.31	722.84	861.20	981.68	1058.61
维吾尔族	361.05	399.63	596.35	720.70	839.94	1006.93
哈萨克族	50.94	49.16	90.75	111.08	125.05	146.26
东乡族	15.58	14.74	27.95	37.37	51.38	62.15
柯尔克孜族	7.09	7.02	11.34	14.35	16.08	18.67
撒拉族	3.07	3.47	6.91	8.75	10.45	13.06
塔吉克族	1.45	1.62	2.66	3.32	4.10	5.11
乌孜别克族	1.36	0.77	1.22	1.48	1.24	1.06
保安族	0.50	0.51	0.90	1.17	1.65	2.01
塔塔尔族	0.69	0.23	0.41	0.51	0.49	0.36
穆斯林人口	794.77	924.47	1461.34	1759.93	2032.06	2314.21
穆斯林人口占全国人口比重	1.38%	1.34%	1.46%	1.56%	1.64%	1.74%

民族	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000	2010
回族	353.05	447.31	722.84	861.20	981.68	1058.61
维吾尔族	361.05	399.63	596.35	720.70	839.94	1006.93
哈萨克族	50.94	49.16	90.75	111.08	125.05	146.26
东乡族	15.58	14.74	27.95	37.37	51.38	62.15
柯尔克孜族	7.09	7.02	11.34	14.35	16.08	18.67
撒拉族	3.07	3.47	6.91	8.75	10.45	13.06
塔吉克族	1.45	1.62	2.66	3.32	4.10	5.11
乌孜别克族	1.36	0.77	1.22	1.48	1.24	1.06
保安族	0.50	0.51	0.90	1.17	1.65	2.01
塔塔尔族	0.69	0.23	0.41	0.51	0.49	0.36
穆斯林人口	794.77	924.47	1461.34	1759.93	2032.06	2314.21
穆斯林人口占全国人口比重	1.38%	1.34%	1.46%	1.56%	1.64%	1.74%

参数	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000	2010
Moran's I	0.0979	0.1088	0.0983	0.0988	0.0665	0.0715
E(I)	-0.0004	-0.0005	-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0004
Z-Value	12.4965	10.0161	11.9941	9.4862	7.0686	9.542
P-value	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003	0.004

参数	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000	2010
Moran's I	0.0979	0.1088	0.0983	0.0988	0.0665	0.0715
E(I)	-0.0004	-0.0005	-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0004
Z-Value	12.4965	10.0161	11.9941	9.4862	7.0686	9.542
P-value	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003	0.004

指标/地区	1953—1964	1964—1982	1982—1990	1990—2000	2000—2010
全国穆斯林人口增长总量/万人	123.76	555.42	299.47	271.6	282.15
占初始年份人口比重/%	0.16%	0.61%	0.2%	0.15%	0.14%
区域之间的偏移增长量/万人	40.01	44.15	10.02	25.49	50.61
东北^*	8.58(0.4)	-6.52(-0.19)	-4.76(-0.1)	-8.8(-0.17)	-12.03(-0.23)
华北^*	22.3(0.42)	-37.35(-0.45)	-5.06(-0.05)	-5.62(-0.05)	-10.79(-0.09)
华东^*	-20.27(-0.46)	32.75(1.05)	4.31(0.05)	-4.26(-0.04)	-6.34(-0.05)
华中^*	5.09(0.12)	2.16(0.04)	0.14(0.00)	-6.81(-0.06)	-16.07(-0.14)
华南^*	0.59(0.4)	-0.28(-0.12)	0.08(0.02)	2.35(0.56)	2.5(0.35)
西南^*	3.45(0.11)	2.08(0.05)	-0.21(0.00)	6.33(0.08)	-5.37(-0.06)
西北^*	-19.73(-0.03)	7.15(0.01)	5.49(0.01)	16.81(0.01)	48.1(0.03)
上海市	3.95	-1.97	-0.24	0.05	1.79
广东省	0.39	-0.11	-0.39	1.81	2.55
海南省	0.01	0.07	0.07	0.23	0.25
宁夏回族自治区	6.4	19.09	3.95	10.13	5.19
新疆维吾尔自治区	-19.34	-20.18	4.84	4.65	51.76