Analysis and modeling of the long-term population migration from the perspective of social security relations transfer

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.05.2020528

Abstract

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal differentiation and impact mechanism of population migration has always been the focus of population research, and the research at home and abroad is mainly based on short-term population migration such as communication and commuting. From the perspective of social security relations transfer, this paper explores the characteristics of the medium and long-term migration and spatial and temporal differentiation of urban working population in Heilongjiang Province. Combined with the population push and pull theory and OD model, taking into account the economic and employment policy factors, a long-term population migration dynamics model is established to reflect the social security labor relations in this paper. The theoretical contributions of this paper are mainly reflected as follows: firstly, The temporal and spatial migration of population based on social security relations supplements and enriches the research content of medium and long-term population migration. Secondly, This article takes urban employees as the research object, considering economic, policy, transportation, geography, and time effects, and focuses on the migration mechanism of urban labor within the region, enriching the research on labor-related migration theory. Finally, This article uses social security big data to study the spatial flow of population, expands the existing literature based on census data research, and enriches relevant empirical research on population mobility.The researches indicate: firstly, the migration of urban working population based on social security relations is consistent with the power-law distribution of the cutoff index, showing the characteristics of Levi's flight. Secondly, population migration shows a multi-level and cross-regional distribution pattern. Thirdly, there is a certain degree of similarity in space between the population migration and relocation. Fourthly, the disorder of the migration of urban workers is increasing and the frequency of migration is higher and higher. Finally, through the simulation, the migration system of urban workers tends to a balance development.

Key words: social security relations, urban population, migration, push and pull theory, structural entropy

摘要：

人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角，从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征，并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型，综合考虑经济和就业政策因素，建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布，呈现列维飞行特点；该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局，人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局，人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性；黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重；城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大，迁移的频率较高；但是经过通过模拟，该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。

关键词: 社保关系, 城镇人口, 迁移, 推拉理论, 结构熵, 大数据

Ningning WANG, Xiaoyong ZHAO. Analysis and modeling of the long-term population migration from the perspective of social security relations transfer[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(5): 1096-1107.

王宁宁, 赵晓永. 黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1096-1107.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Power law distribution of population migration

Fig.2 Population migration curvef(x)=(x+x0)-βe(-x/k) （2）

Fig.3 Population emigration（a） and immigration（b） network of Heilongjiang Province

Fig.4 Population emmigration（a） and immigration（b） pattern of Heilongjiang Province

Fig.5 Regional distribution of population migration difference （a） and liveness （b） of Heilongjiang Province

Fig.6 Comparison of trends between actual migration and simulated migration at different time steps

Fig.7 Simulated emigration（a） and immigration（b） networknetwork in Harbin in 2019

References 26

1	郝睿,宋佳,霍杰,等. 一种人口迁移行为的动力学模拟与结构熵分析. 河北大学学报(自然科学版),2014,34(6):597-602.
	HAO R, SONG J, HUO J, et al. Dynamic simulation and structure entropy analysis of a kind of human migration. Journal of Hebei University(Natural Science Edition),2014,34(6):597-602.
2	BARABÁSI A. The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics. Nature, 435(2005):207-211.
3	BROCKMANN D, HUFNAGEL L, GEISEL T. The scaling laws of human travel. Nature,2006(439):462-465.
4	TAO Z, HUANG X, WANG B. Towards the Understanding of Human Dynamics. Science matters: Humanities as complex systems. Singapore:World Scientific Publishing, 2018.
5	MATRA C, CESAR H, ALBERT B.Understanding individual human mobility patterns. Nature,2018,453(7196):779-882.
6	汪秉宏,韩筱璞.人类行为的动力学与统计力学研究.物理, 2017, 39(1): 28-37.
	WANG B, HAN X. The dynamics and statistical mechanics of human behaviors. Physics, 2017, 39(1): 28-37.
7	王珏,陈雯,袁丰. 基于社会网络分析的长三角地区人口迁移及演化. 地理研究,2014,13(2): 385-400.
	WANG J, CHEN W, YUAN F. Human mobility and evolution based on social network:An empirical analysis of Yangtze River Delta. Geographical Research, 2014, 13(2): 385-400.
8	逯进,郭志仪. 中国省域人口迁移与经济增长耦合关系的演进. 人口研究,2014, 21(6): 40-56.
	LU J, GUO Z. The evolution of coupling relationship between population migration and economic growth in China. Population Research,2014, 21(6): 40-56.
9	沈建法.中国人口迁移,流动人口与城市化—现实,理论与对策.地理研究,2019,38(1):33-44.
	SHEN J.Migration,floating population and urbanization in China:Realities,theories and strategies.Geographical Research,2019,38(1):33-44.
10	谢淑萍,朱婷婷. 东北地区劳动力迁移理论研究综述. 商业经济, 2020(1): 6-11.
	XIE S, ZHU T. A summary of theoretical research on labor migration in northeast. Business Economy, 2020(1): 6-11.
11	曹琳剑, 王杰, 王欢欢, 等.京津冀基础设施建设与人口集聚耦合演进分析——基于推拉理论解析. 地理科学, 2019,39(8): 1256-1264.
	CAO J, WANG J, WANG H,et al. Evolutional analysis of coupling between infrastructure and population agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:An analysis based on push-pull theory. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2019, 39(8): 1256-1264.
12	胡苗苗,闫庆武,李晶晶.省际迁入人口空间分布及其影响因素研究.人口与发展, 2019, 25(1): 24-35.
	HU M, YAN Q, LI J. Spatial distribution and influential factors of inter-provincial population moving into. population and development, 2019, 25(1): 24-35.
13	吴瑞君,朱宝树.中国人口的非均衡分布与"胡焕庸线"的稳定性.中国人口科学,2016(1):14-24+126.
	WU R, ZHU B. The unbalanced distribution of Chinese population and the stability of "Hu Huanyong Line". Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(1):14-24+126.
14	王桂新, 潘泽瀚. 中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线. 中国人口科学, 2016, 18(1): 2-13.
	WANG G, PAN Z. The stubbornness of China's population migration distribution and Hu Huanyong line. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016,18(1):2-13.
15	SIMINI F, MATRA C, MARITAN A,et al. A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 2012,484 (7392):96.
16	张剑. 东北地区流出人口目的地空间分布与居留意愿研究.上海: 华东师范大学, 2020.
	ZHANG J. Study on the spatial distribution of destinations and residence intentions of the outflow population in northeast. ShangHai:East China Normal University, 2019
17	陆丰刚.人口流失影响了东北地区经济增长吗?—基于东北地区户籍人口流失测算数据.人口与发展, 2021, 27(5):98-110+120.
	LU F. Does population loss harm the economic growth in Northeast China:Based on the measurement on population loss in Northeast China. Population and Development, 2021, 27(5): 98-110+120.
18	李扬,刘慧,汤青. 1985-2010年中国省际人口迁移时空格局特征. 地理研究,2018(6):1135-1148.
	LI Y, LIU H, TANG Q. Spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration during 1985-2010. Geographical Research,2018(6):1135-1148.
19	陈锐,王宁宁,赵宇,等. 基于改进重力模型的省际流动人口的复杂网络分析. 中国人口·资源与环境,2014,6(10):104-113.
	CHEN R, WANG N, ZHAO Y,et al. Complex network analysis of inter-provincial mobile population based on improved gravity model. China Population Resources and Environment,2014,6(10):104-113.
20	郑功成.中国社会保障改革:机遇、挑战与取向.国家行政学院学报,2017,6(1): 50-54.
	ZHENG G.China's social security reform:Opportunities,challenges and orientations.Journal of the National School of Administration,2017,6(1):50-54.
21	王明炜.黑龙江省边境县(市)人口流动意愿研究——基于18个边境县(市)调查.现代农业研究, 2019(12): 8-10.
	WANG M. Study on population mobility intention of border counties (cities) in Heilongjiang province--based on a survey of 18 border counties (cities). Modern Agriculture Research, 2019(12): 8-10.
22	于辉,袭杨,周树涛. 大庆地区产业结构、人口变化问题刍议.大庆社会科学, 2020(3): 88-91.
	YU H, XI Y, Zhou S. On the industrial structure and population changes in Daqing Area. Daqing Social Sciences, 2020(3): 88-91.
23	邱松. 东北地区资源枯竭型城市经济转型效果研究.吉林:吉林大学, 2011.
	QIU S. Research on economic transition effect of resource-exhausted cities in Northeast China. Jilin: Jilin University, 2011.
24	WANG P, XIE X, YEUNG H, et a1.Heterogenous scaling in the inter-event time of on-line bookmarkingl.Physica A,2011,390 (12): 2395-2400.
25	陈红艳,喻忠磊,张华. 中国国际人口迁移的空间格局及影响因素. 人口与发展, 2016, 35(6): 12-24.
	CHEN H, YU Z, ZHANG H. Spatial pattern sand impact factors of China's international migration. Population and Development, 2016,35(6): 12-24.
26	肖周燕.人口迁移势能转化的理论假说——对人口迁移推—拉理论的重释.人口与经济, 2016, 12(6): 77-83.
	XIAO Z. Hypothesis on potential energy conversion of population migration in theory:Re-interpretion of the push-pull migration laws. Population & Economics, 2016, 12(6): 77-83.

[1]	Jie ZHOU, Shunying TANG. Research on Korean's social integration in Qingdao [J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(2): 158-165.
[2]	Ning LIU, Qing LIU, Guicai LI. Research progress and prospect of population migration in counties, towns and villages in China [J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(2): 166-178.
[3]	Ning AN, Bo ZHANG. The research of transnational migration and ethnic communities from the perspective of geopolitics [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(6): 1119-1129.
[4]	Bo ZHANG, Meixin LIU, Xiaomei CAI. Material, emotion and power: Transnational migration and home geography [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(6): 1130-1141.
[5]	Shaoyan CAI. Knowledge map analysis on the study of Chinese family migration [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 649-661.
[6]	Kehao ZHOU, Ronghui TAN. Characterizing the coordination and disequilibrium pattern of urban population, economics and urban built-up area in Eastern and Mid-China region [J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(1): 90-100.
[7]	Jiarui YANG, Wenying FU. Progress in contemporary international migration entrepreneurship [J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(3): 480-490.
[8]	Xu HUANG, Huaikuan LIU, Desheng XUE. A review and prospect of social integration of international immigrants in the era of globalization [J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(2): 397-405.