Evolution of China's critical metal nickel trade pattern from the perspective of industry chain

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.03.20220083

Abstract

Abstract:

Though China is the world's largest producer of nickel products, its nickel resources are scarce. Under the background of "carbon neutrality", competition among countries around critical metals such as nickel is becoming increasingly fierce, since the development of strategic emerging industries and low-carbon energy technologies are highly dependent on those metals. This article deeply explores the trade pattern of China's nickel resource industrial chain to improve the control of the industrial chain. We analyzed the evolutionary features of the pattern of China's foreign trade in nickel resource products based on the relevant product trade data from 2001 to 2020, import dependence, diversification index and interdependence model. Our research shows: (1) China's nickel resource industry has the following problems: extremely low reserves, outstanding contradiction between supply and demand, and extremely high external dependence. (2) China's position in the global value chain of nickel resources products is gradually rising. China mainly imports upstream nickel ore and concentrate products with low added value and exports midstream and downstream products with higher added value. The import market is highly concentrated and the path dependence has increased, while the export market is gradually decentralized and the path dependence has weakened. (3) China's dominant position in the interdependence pattern of global nickel resources trade has been strengthened, mainly in the trade of downstream products. However, the maintenance and expansion of China's advantage in nickel resources trade is under great pressure with the strong release of Indonesia's production capacity and the impact of anti-dumping sanctions from relevant trading countries (regions). Based on this, China should focus on the investment and development of overseas nickel resources in the future, promote the construction of regional supply chains, and hedge the risks arising from China's large imports of upstream products from these countries by strengthening the dependence of the main upstream product importing countries (regions) on the middle and downstream products of China's nickel industry chain.

Key words: nickel trade, industrial chain, critical minerals, spatiotemporal pattern, interdependence

摘要：

中国为世界镍产品生产大国，但本身镍资源稀缺，且在“碳中和”背景下，战略性新兴产业和低碳能源技术的发展高度依赖镍等关键金属，各国围绕关键金属的争夺日趋激烈。为深入探究中国镍资源产业链的贸易格局，提升产业链掌控力，本文基于2001—2020年相关产品贸易数据，借助进口依存度、多元化指数及相互依存模型等手段探讨中国镍资源产品对外贸易的格局演化特征。研究发现：①中国镍资源储量极低，供需矛盾突出，对外依存度极高。②中国在全球镍资源产品价值链中所处的地位逐渐上升，主要出口具有较高附加值的中下游产品，进口附加值较低的上游镍矿砂及精矿产品，进口市场高度集中且路径依赖效应增强，出口市场逐步分散，路径依赖有所减弱。③中国在全球镍资源贸易相互依存格局中的优势地位有所强化，主要表现在下游产品的贸易中，但随着印尼产能的强劲释放和相关贸易国家（地区）的反倾销制裁等影响，中国镍资源贸易优势的保持与扩大面临巨大的压力。基于此，未来中国应该注重对海外镍矿资源的投资开发，推动构建区域供应链，并通过加强主要上游产品进口国家（地区）对中国镍产业链中下游产品的依赖来对冲中国从这些国家大量进口上游产品所带来的风险。

关键词: 镍资源贸易, 产业链, 关键金属, 时空格局, 相互依存

Ke WANG, Qifan XIA. Evolution of China's critical metal nickel trade pattern from the perspective of industry chain[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(3): 40-55.

王珂, 夏启繁. 产业链视角下中国关键金属镍贸易格局演化[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 40-55.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab.1 Evaluation system of interdependence of China's nickel products in foreign trade

关系	依存级别	取值范围	指标解释基础	指标评价
单向依存	中国单向依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i$ =0	中国向该国进口但该国不向中国进口	贸易劣势
单向依存	单向依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i$ =0	中国向该国出口但该国不向中国出口	贸易优势
相互依存	中国高度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≥$ －0.2	中国向该国进口大于该国向中国进口	贸易劣势
	中国中度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且－0.5< $N i G L g i$ < －0.2
	中国低度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≤$ －0.5
	高度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≤$ 0.2	中国向该国出口大于该国向中国出口	贸易优势
	中度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且0.2< $N i G L g i$ <0.5
	低度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≥$ 0.5

Tab.1 Evaluation system of interdependence of China's nickel products in foreign trade

关系	依存级别	取值范围	指标解释基础	指标评价
单向依存	中国单向依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i$ =0	中国向该国进口但该国不向中国进口	贸易劣势
单向依存	单向依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i$ =0	中国向该国出口但该国不向中国出口	贸易优势
相互依存	中国高度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≥$ －0.2	中国向该国进口大于该国向中国进口	贸易劣势
	中国中度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且－0.5< $N i G L g i$ < －0.2
	中国低度依存	$X g i - M g i < 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≤$ －0.5
	高度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≤$ 0.2	中国向该国出口大于该国向中国出口	贸易优势
	中度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且0.2< $N i G L g i$ <0.5
	低度依存中国	$X g i - M g i > 0$ 且 $N i G L g i ≥$ 0.5

Fig. 1 Nickel resource industry chain

Fig.2 Reserves of nickel resources in China and the world and external dependence degree of nickel resources in China， 2001-2020

Fig. 3 Changes in the China's nickel products trade structure， 2001-2020

Tab.2 China’s top 10 sources of import and export of nickel products in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020

类型	2005		2010		2015		2020
类型	国家（地区）	占比	国家（地区）	占比	国家（地区）占比	占比	国家（地区）	占比
进口	韩国	24.6%	菲律宾	47.3%	菲律宾	93.5%	菲律宾	72.2%
	中国台湾	19.7%	印尼	46.8%	印尼	1.1%	印尼	16.7%
	日本	9.7%	日本	1.0%	俄罗斯	0.7%	新喀里多尼亚	6.4%
	菲律宾	7.9%	澳大利亚	0.9%	日本	0.6%	澳大利亚	0.6%
	印度	6.5%	俄罗斯	0.7%	澳大利亚	0.6%	土耳其	0.5%
	意大利	4.8%	韩国	0.6%	韩国	0.5%	危地马拉	0.5%
	澳大利亚	3.9%	中国台湾	0.6%	巴西	0.4%	韩国	0.4%
	芬兰	3.1%	西班牙	0.3%	西班牙	0.4%	俄罗斯	0.4%
	西班牙	3.0%	意大利	0.3%	新喀里多尼亚	0.3%	日本	0.4%
	德国	2.8%	哥伦比亚	0.2%	越南	0.3%	巴西	0.3%
出口	美国	22.2%	韩国	23.7%	中国台湾	26.4%	韩国	20.2%
	中国台湾	22.2%	中国台湾	20.4%	韩国	20.8%	中国台湾	16.5%
	韩国	10.9%	美国	9.3%	越南	9.2%	越南	7.4%
	中国香港	9.7%	越南	5.3%	印度	7.0%	土耳其	6.8%
	泰国	6.8%	意大利	4.9%	意大利	5.5%	俄罗斯	6.5%
	日本	4.5%	印度	4.1%	美国	4.4%	巴基斯坦	4.4%
	越南	4.5%	中国香港	4.0%	印尼	2.8%	孟加拉国	3.6%
	马来西亚	3.2%	巴林	3.3%	马来西亚	2.8%	印尼	3.4%
	新加坡	2.8%	巴基斯坦	2.4%	巴基斯坦	2.6%	印度	3.1%
	澳大利亚	2.1%	泰国	2.2%	土耳其	2.1%	埃及	3.0%

Fig.4 Diversification index and number of trading countries in China’s nickel products，2001-2020

Fig.5 Spatial pattern of import and export of China's nickel industry chain in 2005， 2010， 2015 and 2020

Tab.3 Statistics on interdependence of nickel trade between China and others in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020

类别		中国单向依存	中国高度依存	中国中度依存	中国低度依存	单向依存中国	高度依存中国	中度依存中国	低度依存中国
上游	2005	14	1	—	—	1	—	—	—
	2010	24	2	—	—	3	—	—	—
	2015	17	2	—	—	3	5	—	—
	2020	16	1	—	—	2	—	—	—
中游	2005	16	5	2	2	21	2	2	2
	2010	11	12	3	1	15	5	2	—
	2015	15	12	—	2	21	4	3	1
	2020	9	15	1	1	22	5	4	1
下游	2005	3	20	1	1	35	6	1	2
	2010	2	9	2	—	103	13	5	5
	2015	—	5	2	1	124	26	2	5
	2020	—	5	3	2	138	20	3	2

Tab.4 Characteristics and risks of major trading countries（regions） in China’s nickel industry chain

主要贸易国/地区	类型	贸易特点或潜在风险
菲律宾	上游供给型	中国镍矿最主要的供应国，但供应存在较高的不稳定性
新喀里多尼亚	上中游供给型	中国镍矿和镍铁主要供应国，可作为未来贸易重点
俄罗斯	中游供给型	中国精炼镍主要进口国，但产量一直较低，受近年来新能源汽车电池的拉动，产量上升趋势明显
澳大利亚	中游供给型	中国硫酸镍主要进口国，受中澳关系影响，未来风险可能性较高
韩国	中下游输出型	中国不锈钢主要出口国，但已对涉华不锈钢实施相关贸易救济措施
中国台湾	中下游输出型	中国大陆精炼镍和不锈钢主要出口地之一，中下游产品高度依赖大陆
印尼	全产业链供给型	中国镍矿、镍铁和中高端不锈钢的主要进口地，产业链完整，具有潜在地缘政治风险
越南、巴基斯坦、土耳其、巴西等	下游输出型	中国低端不锈钢产品的主要出口地区，但均已开始对自中国进口的不锈钢实施反倾销等贸易救济手段

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