Abstract:

China and India, as the world's most populous countries, important emerging economies and members of the "BRICS" countries, both have significant impact on the economic development pattern of Asia and the world. And the study of China-India trade relations is of great significance for promoting China-India bilateral economic and trade cooperation, improving the construction of Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the development of "Belt and Road Initiative". Based on review of the trade research between China and India, this paper analyzes the development pattern of China-India trade relations, explores the trade structure and sensitive industries of China-India trade relations, and estimates the economic contribution of China-India trade to each economic development. The results show that:(1) China-India trade volume had expanded rapidly from 3595 million USD to 84258 million USD in 2001-2017. Meanwhile, China became one of the most important trade partners of India, but India's trade status in China rose slightly.(2) At the provincial level, most coastal provinces have relatively strong trade links with India, while provinces in Central China and Western China have less trade links.(3)The trade risk between China and India is relatively low, as neither China nor India could identify sensitive trade industries in their exports. China's imports from India were mainly resource-intensive and labor-intensive commodities, while China's exports to India gradually turned to technology-intensive commodities, which indicated that China's export structure to India had upgraded.(4)The export of mechanical equipment and chemicals industry had relatively high contributes to China's economic development, while the export of non-metallic minerals and minerals had relatively high contributes to India's economic development.(5)At the provincial level, the GDP contribution of exports to India in coastal provinces are relatively high, while Tibet and Xinjiang also have impressive GDP contribution.

Key words: the "Belt and Road" Initiative, China-India trade, trade commodity structure, trade interdependence, economic contribution

摘要：

中国与印度的双边关系一直牵动着亚洲乃至世界的经济发展格局，研究其贸易关系对推进双边关系、推动孟中印缅经济走廊合作及“一带一路”建设均具有重要意义。本文从贸易角度入手，深入剖析中印贸易关系发展态势，探讨中印贸易商品结构及敏感行业，评估中印贸易对两国经济发展的带动作用，以期为中印关系演变提供有利支撑。研究发现：（1）2001—2017年中国与印度的贸易规模迅速扩大，但印度在中国的贸易地位提升较慢；（2）东部沿海省份与印度的贸易联系较紧密，西部地区大部分省份与印度的贸易联系相对较弱；（3）中、印双方均未能识别出明显的敏感行业，中国从印度进口主要商品为资源密集型和劳动密集型商品，而中国出口印度的商品逐渐转为技术密集型商品；（4）机械设备、化学制品业的出口拉动对中国的经济发展贡献相对较高，而非金属矿物制品、矿物的出口拉动对印度的经济发展贡献相对较高；（5）出口印度对东部沿海贸易大省的经济拉动比较明显，对于印度毗邻的西藏、新疆两个自治区的拉动也相对较大。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 中印贸易, 商品结构, 贸易依存度, 经济拉动