World Regional Studies ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 136-149.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.05.20230484
Received:
2023-07-21
Revised:
2023-11-22
Online:
2024-05-15
Published:
2024-05-30
Contact:
Yi LI
通讯作者:
李禕
作者简介:
邹宇(2000—),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为房地产经济与管理,E-mail:zylttw@163.com。
基金资助:
Yu ZOU, Yi LI. Spatio-temporal pattern and mechanism of housing price under the background of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(5): 136-149.
邹宇, 李禕. 广佛同城化发展背景下住房价格时空格局及机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 136-149.
一级指标 | 二级指标 | ||
---|---|---|---|
内容 | 权重 | 内容 | 权重 |
空间功能同城化 | 0.338 | 城际铁路是否开通 | 0.248 |
城际轨道交通开通线路 | 0.170 | ||
跨界桥梁 | 0.460 | ||
等级公路网密度比值 | 0.122 | ||
经济同城化 | 0.231 | 经济引力系数 | 0.513 |
产业结构差异指数 | 0.488 | ||
制度同城化 | 0.431 | 成立市长联席会议制度年数 | 0.136 |
同城化合作协议数量 | 0.294 | ||
是否上升为国家级战略 | 0.268 | ||
上升为国家级战略年数 | 0.302 |
Tab.1 Measurement index system of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration development index
一级指标 | 二级指标 | ||
---|---|---|---|
内容 | 权重 | 内容 | 权重 |
空间功能同城化 | 0.338 | 城际铁路是否开通 | 0.248 |
城际轨道交通开通线路 | 0.170 | ||
跨界桥梁 | 0.460 | ||
等级公路网密度比值 | 0.122 | ||
经济同城化 | 0.231 | 经济引力系数 | 0.513 |
产业结构差异指数 | 0.488 | ||
制度同城化 | 0.431 | 成立市长联席会议制度年数 | 0.136 |
同城化合作协议数量 | 0.294 | ||
是否上升为国家级战略 | 0.268 | ||
上升为国家级战略年数 | 0.302 |
年份 | 整体指数 | 城市间 | 城市内 | 贡献率 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
城市间 | 城市内 | ||||
2014 | 0.141 | 0.068 | 0.074 | 48.03% | 51.97% |
2015 | 0.148 | 0.079 | 0.069 | 53.11% | 46.89% |
2016 | 0.169 | 0.089 | 0.081 | 52.47% | 47.53% |
2017 | 0.174 | 0.086 | 0.088 | 49.46% | 50.54% |
2018 | 0.150 | 0.083 | 0.066 | 55.73% | 44.27% |
2019 | 0.127 | 0.074 | 0.053 | 58.15% | 41.85% |
2020 | 0.145 | 0.071 | 0.075 | 48.65% | 51.35% |
2021 | 0.160 | 0.077 | 0.083 | 48.06% | 51.94% |
Tab.2 Theil indexes and contribution rate of housing price in Guangzhou-Foshan from 2014 to 2021
年份 | 整体指数 | 城市间 | 城市内 | 贡献率 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
城市间 | 城市内 | ||||
2014 | 0.141 | 0.068 | 0.074 | 48.03% | 51.97% |
2015 | 0.148 | 0.079 | 0.069 | 53.11% | 46.89% |
2016 | 0.169 | 0.089 | 0.081 | 52.47% | 47.53% |
2017 | 0.174 | 0.086 | 0.088 | 49.46% | 50.54% |
2018 | 0.150 | 0.083 | 0.066 | 55.73% | 44.27% |
2019 | 0.127 | 0.074 | 0.053 | 58.15% | 41.85% |
2020 | 0.145 | 0.071 | 0.075 | 48.65% | 51.35% |
2021 | 0.160 | 0.077 | 0.083 | 48.06% | 51.94% |
同城化地区 | 等级类型 | 地区及数量 | 住房价格/(元/m2) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2021 | |||
中心城市(广州) | I级中心城市核心区 | 2个:天河区、越秀区 | 28 073 | 58 667 |
II级中心城市中心区 | 2个:海珠区、荔湾区 | 21 295 | 42 234 | |
III级中心城市核心圈层区 | 3个:白云区、黄埔区、番禺区 | 15 897 | 29 912 | |
IV级中心城市外围圈层区 | 4个:南沙区、增城区、花都区、从化区 | 9 413 | 18 513 | |
次中心城市(佛山) | V级次中心城市中心区 | 3个:禅城区、南海区、顺德区 | 6 534 | 15 023 |
VI级次中心城市外围区 | 2个:三水区、高明区 | 6 759 | 7 978 |
Tab.3 Grade types of housing price in Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration
同城化地区 | 等级类型 | 地区及数量 | 住房价格/(元/m2) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2021 | |||
中心城市(广州) | I级中心城市核心区 | 2个:天河区、越秀区 | 28 073 | 58 667 |
II级中心城市中心区 | 2个:海珠区、荔湾区 | 21 295 | 42 234 | |
III级中心城市核心圈层区 | 3个:白云区、黄埔区、番禺区 | 15 897 | 29 912 | |
IV级中心城市外围圈层区 | 4个:南沙区、增城区、花都区、从化区 | 9 413 | 18 513 | |
次中心城市(佛山) | V级次中心城市中心区 | 3个:禅城区、南海区、顺德区 | 6 534 | 15 023 |
VI级次中心城市外围区 | 2个:三水区、高明区 | 6 759 | 7 978 |
年份 | 空间功能同城化水平 | 经济同城化水平 | 制度同城化水平 | 综合同城化水平 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 0.041 | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.080 |
2015 | 0.029 | 0.068 | 0.008 | 0.105 |
2016 | 0.034 | 0.139 | 0.017 | 0.189 |
2017 | 0.038 | 0.102 | 0.025 | 0.165 |
2018 | 0.145 | 0.063 | 0.034 | 0.241 |
2019 | 0.165 | 0.197 | 0.264 | 0.626 |
2020 | 0.246 | 0.125 | 0.316 | 0.687 |
2021 | 0.333 | 0.196 | 0.431 | 0.961 |
Tab.4 Evaluation results of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration from 2014 to 2021
年份 | 空间功能同城化水平 | 经济同城化水平 | 制度同城化水平 | 综合同城化水平 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 0.041 | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.080 |
2015 | 0.029 | 0.068 | 0.008 | 0.105 |
2016 | 0.034 | 0.139 | 0.017 | 0.189 |
2017 | 0.038 | 0.102 | 0.025 | 0.165 |
2018 | 0.145 | 0.063 | 0.034 | 0.241 |
2019 | 0.165 | 0.197 | 0.264 | 0.626 |
2020 | 0.246 | 0.125 | 0.316 | 0.687 |
2021 | 0.333 | 0.196 | 0.431 | 0.961 |
变量 | 模型(1) | 模型(2) |
---|---|---|
X1(综合同城化水平) | -0.101*(-1.64) | |
X2(空间功能同城化水平) | -0.414(-1.14) | |
X3(经济同城化水平) | -0.295(-0.86) | |
X4(制度同城化水平) | 0.106(0.42) | |
CV1(人口密度) | 0.415***(4.06) | 0.418***(4.07) |
CV2(收入水平) | 0.192(1.57) | 0.247*(1.79) |
常数项 | 0.934***(4.09) | 0.944***(4.19) |
ICC | 0.971 | 0.970 |
Tab.5 HLM analysis of the impact of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration
变量 | 模型(1) | 模型(2) |
---|---|---|
X1(综合同城化水平) | -0.101*(-1.64) | |
X2(空间功能同城化水平) | -0.414(-1.14) | |
X3(经济同城化水平) | -0.295(-0.86) | |
X4(制度同城化水平) | 0.106(0.42) | |
CV1(人口密度) | 0.415***(4.06) | 0.418***(4.07) |
CV2(收入水平) | 0.192(1.57) | 0.247*(1.79) |
常数项 | 0.934***(4.09) | 0.944***(4.19) |
ICC | 0.971 | 0.970 |
变量 | I级中心城市 | II级中心城市 | III、IV级中心城市 | V级次中心城市 | VI级次中心城市 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | 模型(8) | 模型(9) | 模型(10) | 模型(11) | 模型(12) | ||||
X1 | -0.311 (-1.15) | -0.200 (-0.66) | -0.365** (-4.27) | 0.077 (1.46) | 0.231** (2.36) | ||||||||
X2 | 0.038 (0.02) | 2.047 (1.41) | -1.401** (-2.48) | -0.489* (-1.91) | 0.403 (0.87) | ||||||||
X3 | 0.105 (0.07) | 2.879* (2.09) | -0.724 (-1.29) | -0.554** (-2.40) | -0.185 (-0.46) | ||||||||
X4 | -0.555 (-0.56) | -2.041*(-2.12) | 0.304 (0.72) | 0.473*** (2.98) | 0.279 (1.03) | ||||||||
CV1 | 0.323** (2.37) | 0.318* (2.11) | 3.575*** (3.43) | 4.240*** (4.31) | 3.839*** (6.06) | 3.526*** (5.38) | 0.395*** (3.93) | 0.463*** (4.99) | 6.335*** (3.61) | 6.511*** (3.80) | |||
CV2 | 0.420 (1.01) | 0.336 (0.58) | -0.441 (-0.82) | -1.093* (-1.83) | 0.584*** (3.08) | 0.717*** (3.53) | 0.089 (0.76) | 0.2682** (2.11) | -1.130*** (-3.90) | -1.197*** (-3.50) | |||
常数项 | 1.775*** (8.60) | 1.772*** (7.54) | 0.133 (0.26) | -0.238 (-0.48) | 0.636*** (16.38) | 0.680*** (11.38) | 0.398*** (11.37) | 0.413*** (12.74) | 0.379*** (16.61) | 0.407*** (9.35) | |||
R2 | 0.342 | 0.348 | 0.506 | 0.675 | 0.777 | 0.793 | 0.729 | 0.812 | 0.742 | 0.816 |
Tab.6 Group regression results of central city and sub-central city
变量 | I级中心城市 | II级中心城市 | III、IV级中心城市 | V级次中心城市 | VI级次中心城市 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | 模型(8) | 模型(9) | 模型(10) | 模型(11) | 模型(12) | ||||
X1 | -0.311 (-1.15) | -0.200 (-0.66) | -0.365** (-4.27) | 0.077 (1.46) | 0.231** (2.36) | ||||||||
X2 | 0.038 (0.02) | 2.047 (1.41) | -1.401** (-2.48) | -0.489* (-1.91) | 0.403 (0.87) | ||||||||
X3 | 0.105 (0.07) | 2.879* (2.09) | -0.724 (-1.29) | -0.554** (-2.40) | -0.185 (-0.46) | ||||||||
X4 | -0.555 (-0.56) | -2.041*(-2.12) | 0.304 (0.72) | 0.473*** (2.98) | 0.279 (1.03) | ||||||||
CV1 | 0.323** (2.37) | 0.318* (2.11) | 3.575*** (3.43) | 4.240*** (4.31) | 3.839*** (6.06) | 3.526*** (5.38) | 0.395*** (3.93) | 0.463*** (4.99) | 6.335*** (3.61) | 6.511*** (3.80) | |||
CV2 | 0.420 (1.01) | 0.336 (0.58) | -0.441 (-0.82) | -1.093* (-1.83) | 0.584*** (3.08) | 0.717*** (3.53) | 0.089 (0.76) | 0.2682** (2.11) | -1.130*** (-3.90) | -1.197*** (-3.50) | |||
常数项 | 1.775*** (8.60) | 1.772*** (7.54) | 0.133 (0.26) | -0.238 (-0.48) | 0.636*** (16.38) | 0.680*** (11.38) | 0.398*** (11.37) | 0.413*** (12.74) | 0.379*** (16.61) | 0.407*** (9.35) | |||
R2 | 0.342 | 0.348 | 0.506 | 0.675 | 0.777 | 0.793 | 0.729 | 0.812 | 0.742 | 0.816 |
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