Coupling evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions-urban high quality development level in Yangtze River Delta

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.03.20230324

World Regional Studies ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 103-115.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.03.20230324

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Coupling evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions-urban high quality development level in Yangtze River Delta

Xin CHEN¹^,²^,³(), Jiabei ZHOU⁴, Yuantao LIAO¹^,²^,³, Shaojian WANG⁴^,⁵()

^1.Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
^2.Collaborative Innovation Center for Natural Resources Planning and Marine Technology of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510060, China
^3.Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China
^4.School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
^5.School of Urban Design of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Received:2023-05-23 Revised:2023-08-22 Online:2024-03-15 Published:2024-03-22
Contact: Shaojian WANG

长三角地区碳排放-城市高质量发展水平耦合协调演变及影响因素分析

陈鑫¹^,²^,³(), 周加贝⁴, 廖远涛¹^,²^,³, 王少剑⁴^,⁵()

^1.广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院有限公司，广州 510060
^2.广州市资源规划和海洋科技协同创新中心，广州 510060
^3.广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室，广州 510060
^4.中山大学地理科学与规划学院，广州 510006
^5.武汉大学城市设计学院，武汉 430072

通讯作者: 王少剑
作者简介:陈鑫（1989—），男，工程师，主要研究方向为城市规划设计研究、低碳理论研究，E-mail：294170081@qq.com。
基金资助:
广州市资源规划和海洋科技协同创新中心项目(2023B04J0301);广东省重点领域研发计划资助(2020B0101130009);广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室基金项目(2020B121202019);广州市哲学社会科学规划课题(2023GZYB81);广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院专业级课题(RDP2220202074)

Abstract

Abstract:

Improving carbon emission efficiency and high-quality development are two important goals of urban development. Based on the entropy weight method, this paper constructed the index system of urban high-quality development level, and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of carbon emission intensity and urban high-quality development level in 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2019 by using the coupling coordination model and two-way fixed effect regression. The conclusions are as follows: 1) During the study period, the carbon emission intensity of the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, with a slight decrease, and the score of high-quality urban development continued to increase; Carbon emission intensity - the level of coupling and coordination of high-quality urban development has increased steadily. 2) The average coupling coordination degree of cities in the region continues to rise, and the change trend of coupling coordination degree between cities is similar, showing the characteristics of rising fluctuations and narrowing gaps, and all cities in the region entered the stage of coordinated development in 2019. 3) In terms of spatial distribution, the coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Delta region has the characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north", and presents an evolutionary pattern of spreading to the surrounding areas centered on the economically developed coastal areas in the southeast. 4) The basic indicators of technological development, environmental governance and economic development all play a positive role in promoting the coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Delta region.

Key words: carbon emission intensity, high quality urban development level, Coupling Coordination Degree Model, Yangtze River Delta

摘要：

降低碳排放强度与高质量发展是城市发展的两个重要目标。本文基于熵权法构建城市高质量发展水平指标体系，并运用耦合协调度模型和双向固定效应回归对长三角地区27个城市2000—2019年的碳排放强度与城市高质量发展水平耦合协调度时空演变特征及影响因素进行分析。结论如下：1）研究期内长三角地区碳排放强度评价得分保持稳定，有小幅度下降，城市高质量发展水平得分不断提升；碳排放强度-城市高质量发展水平耦合度与耦合协调度水平平稳上升。2）区域内各城市平均耦合协调度不断上升，城市间耦合协调度变化趋势相似，呈现出波动上升且差距不断缩小的特点，2019年全域各城市均进入协调发展阶段。3）在空间分布上，长三角地区耦合协调度具有“东高西低，南高北低”的特点，并呈现以东南部沿海经济发达地区为中心，向四周扩散的演变格局。4）技术发展基础指标、环境治理基础指标及经济发展基础指标对长三角地区耦合协调度均起到正向促进作用。

关键词: 碳排放强度, 城市高质量发展水平, 耦合协调度模型, 长三角

Xin CHEN, Jiabei ZHOU, Yuantao LIAO, Shaojian WANG. Coupling evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions-urban high quality development level in Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(3): 103-115.

陈鑫, 周加贝, 廖远涛, 王少剑. 长三角地区碳排放-城市高质量发展水平耦合协调演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 103-115.

Figures/Tables 10

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维度指标	评价指标	指标说明	单位	方向
创新指标	R&D人员投入强度	R&D从业人员数/从业人员数	%	+
	R&D经费投入强度	R&D经费支出/GDP	%	+
	科学技术支出投入强度	科技技术财政支出/一般性公共财政支出	%	+
协调指标	非农业人口占比	非农业人口数/年末总人口数	%	+
	人均地区生产总值	GDP/总人口	万元/人	+
	第二产业增加值占GDP比重	第二产业增加值/GDP	%	－
	第三产业增加值占GDP比重	第三产业增加值/GDP	%	+
绿色指标	工业SO₂排放度	工业SO₂排放量/GDP	%	－
	工业烟尘排放度	工业烟尘排放量/GDP	%	－
	生活垃圾无害化处理率	无害化处理生活垃圾数量/生活垃圾总量	%	+
	一般工业固体废物综合利用率	一般工业固体废物综合利用量/一般固体废物产生量与综合利用往年贮存量之和	%	+
开放指标	实际利用外资占GDP比	实际利用外商直接投资/GDP	%	+
	民用航空客运量占总人口比	民用航空客运量/总人口	%	+
	百人拥有国际互联网数	国际互联网拥有户数/总人口	户/百人	+
共享指标	教育支出强度	科教育财政支出/一般性公共财政支出	%	+
	每百人公共图书馆藏书	公共图书馆藏书量/总人口	本/百人	+
	每万人医院、卫生院床位数	医院、卫生院床位数/总人口	张/万人	+
	年末城镇失业人口占比	年末城镇失业人口占比/年末总人口	%	－

维度指标	评价指标	指标说明	单位	方向
创新指标	R&D人员投入强度	R&D从业人员数/从业人员数	%	+
	R&D经费投入强度	R&D经费支出/GDP	%	+
	科学技术支出投入强度	科技技术财政支出/一般性公共财政支出	%	+
协调指标	非农业人口占比	非农业人口数/年末总人口数	%	+
	人均地区生产总值	GDP/总人口	万元/人	+
	第二产业增加值占GDP比重	第二产业增加值/GDP	%	－
	第三产业增加值占GDP比重	第三产业增加值/GDP	%	+
绿色指标	工业SO₂排放度	工业SO₂排放量/GDP	%	－
	工业烟尘排放度	工业烟尘排放量/GDP	%	－
	生活垃圾无害化处理率	无害化处理生活垃圾数量/生活垃圾总量	%	+
	一般工业固体废物综合利用率	一般工业固体废物综合利用量/一般固体废物产生量与综合利用往年贮存量之和	%	+
开放指标	实际利用外资占GDP比	实际利用外商直接投资/GDP	%	+
	民用航空客运量占总人口比	民用航空客运量/总人口	%	+
	百人拥有国际互联网数	国际互联网拥有户数/总人口	户/百人	+
共享指标	教育支出强度	科教育财政支出/一般性公共财政支出	%	+
	每百人公共图书馆藏书	公共图书馆藏书量/总人口	本/百人	+
	每万人医院、卫生院床位数	医院、卫生院床位数/总人口	张/万人	+
	年末城镇失业人口占比	年末城镇失业人口占比/年末总人口	%	－

一级指标	二级指标	单位
技术发展基础（TE）	每万人在校大学生数（TE1）	—
技术发展基础（TE）	科技投入度（TE2）	%
环境治理基础（ER）	工业废水排放达标量（ER1）	万吨
环境治理基础（ER）	工业SO₂去除率（ER2）	%
经济发展基础（EC）	固定投资占比（EC1）	%
	年平均就业人数（EC2）	万人
	金融效率（EC3）	—
	人口密度（EC4）	千人/km²

一级指标	二级指标	单位
技术发展基础（TE）	每万人在校大学生数（TE1）	—
技术发展基础（TE）	科技投入度（TE2）	%
环境治理基础（ER）	工业废水排放达标量（ER1）	万吨
环境治理基础（ER）	工业SO₂去除率（ER2）	%
经济发展基础（EC）	固定投资占比（EC1）	%
	年平均就业人数（EC2）	万人
	金融效率（EC3）	—
	人口密度（EC4）	千人/km²

耦合协调发展阶段	类型	耦合协调度D	耦合协调发展阶段	类型	耦合协调度D
失调	重度失调	0.00~0.19	协调	初级协调	0.60~0.69
	中度失调	0.20~0.29		中级协调	0.70~0.79
	轻度失调	0.30~0.39		良好协调	0.80~0.89
磨合	濒临失调	0.40~0.49		优质协调	0.90~0.10
磨合	勉强协调	0.50~0.59

Coupling evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions-urban high quality development level in Yangtze River Delta

长三角地区碳排放-城市高质量发展水平耦合协调演变及影响因素分析

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Figures/Tables 10

References 41

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Metrics

检验方式	检验目的	P值	检验结果
F检验	选择FE模型和POOL模型	0.000	FE模型
Breusch-pagan检验	选择RE模型和POOL模型	0.002	RE模型
Hausman检验	选择RE模型和FE模型	0.000	FE模型

变量名称	个体固定效应模型	时间固定效应模型	个体-时间双固定效应模型
TE	0.371^***	0.192^***	0.141^***
ER	0.168^***	0.250^***	0.075^***
EC	0.135^***	－0.123^***	0.038^**
R²	0.484	0.550	0.901
_cons	0.233^***	0.351^***	0.423^***

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