Abstract:

As a globally significant strategic region, the security issues in the Horn of Africa are particularly prominent. Refugee issues not only constrain the construction of domestic security environments in individual countries but also influence international relations through intricate interaction mechanisms. This study utilizes refugee movement datasets released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and interstate conflict event data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). By integrating methodologies including social network analysis, spatial centroid coupling, and Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) regression, we systematically examine the evolving patterns of refugee flows and regional geopolitical conflicts in the Horn of Africa from 1980 to 2023, with a focus on their interactive dynamics. Key findings include: ① A significant spatial coupling exists between refugee movements and geopolitical conflicts in the region, characterized by synchronized shifts in their spatial centroids, with this spatial correlation intensifying notably since the 21st century. ② QAP regression results demonstrate that refugee flows among Horn of Africa nations exert a statistically significant positive impact on geopolitical conflicts, with the magnitude of this influence deepening over time. ③ A bidirectional interaction emerges between refugee flows and conflicts, forming a vicious cycle of "conflict-generated refugees" exacerbating "refugee-fueled conflicts." This research explores issues pertinent to peace, development, and governance in the Horn of Africa, providing empirical insights relevant to China-Africa cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: The Horn of Africa, refugee flows, geopolitical conflicts, spatial pattern, China-Africa cooperation

摘要：

非洲之角地区作为全球重要的战略要地，其安全问题尤为突出。难民的跨国流动不仅制约各国的安全环境建设，更通过复杂的互动机制影响着国际关系的发展。本文基于联合国难民署（UNHCR）公布的难民流动数据集和全球新闻事件数据库（GDELT）发布的国家间冲突事件数据，采用社会网络分析、重心耦合和QAP回归方法，揭示1980—2023年非洲之角地区难民流动与区域地缘冲突的演变格局，探讨难民流动与国家间地缘冲突之间的互动关系。研究发现：①非洲之角国家间的难民流动与地缘冲突在空间分布上存在显著的耦合性，且二者的重心变化具有同步性。尤其是21世纪以来，这种空间关联性持续增强；②在影响程度上，QAP回归结果表明，非洲之角国家间的难民流动对地缘冲突呈现正向推动作用，且影响程度随时间推移而深化；③非洲之角地区的难民流动与地缘冲突之间是双向互动关系，表现为“冲突催生难民、难民加剧冲突”的恶性循环。本研究探讨了非洲之角地区的和平与发展及其治理议题，为中非合作和“一带一路”建设提供实证依据和决策参考。

关键词: 非洲之角, 难民流动, 地缘冲突, 空间格局, 中非合作