Abstract:

Based on the data of Kenya's four national population censuses, exploratory spatial data analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and population shift-share model were used to analyze the spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the population distribution of 47 administrative units in Kenya from 1989 to 2019. Then, this paper employed geographic detector to further analyze the influencing factors. The results show that: ① During the study period, the distribution pattern of population density in Kenya is relatively stable, showing high southwest and low northeast. ② There are obvious spatial differences in population offset growth in different cities, mainly positive offset growth and negative offset growth types. And the population distribution center is northwest of the capital Nairobi and continues to migrate southeast. ③ Natural and socio-economic factors jointly influence the spatial evolution pattern of population distribution in Kenya. Under the influence of elevation, climate, precipitation, economic development level and transportation infrastructure construction, the population is concentrated in a few areas along the southwest and southeast coasts of Kenya. Kenya has roughly formed a high-density population cluster centered on Nairobi, the national administrative center, Kisumu on the shores of Lake Victoria, and Mombasa, the largest port on the coast.

Key words: population spatial distribution, evolution of spatial pattern, influencing factors, Kenya, Africa

摘要：

基于肯尼亚四期全国人口普查数据，运用探索性空间数据分析、标准差椭圆、人口偏移-份额等方法，刻画了1989—2019年肯尼亚47个行政单元人口分布的空间格局演变特征，并运用地理探测器模型分析了其影响因素。结果表明：①研究期内肯尼亚人口密度的分布格局较为稳定，表现为西南高、东北低，与经济发展水平的分布格局相吻合；②人口空间演变趋势以正偏移增长和负偏移增长类型为主，人口分布中心出现在首都内罗毕西北部，整体呈现出向东南方向迁移的特征；③自然因素和社会经济因素共同影响着肯尼亚人口分布的空间演变格局。在高程、气候、降水、经济发展水平和交通基础设施建设的影响下，大致形成以内罗毕、维多利亚湖沿岸的基苏木以及沿海第一大港蒙巴萨为核心的人口高密度集群。

关键词: 人口空间分布, 空间格局演化, 影响因素, 肯尼亚, 非洲