Abstract:

Scientifically identifying the driving forces of non-grain of cultivated land is of great significance to resolutely stop the non-grain of cultivated land and keep the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land in China. Taking the agricultural divisions of China as the research unit, this paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial error model to identify the driving forces of non-grain of cultivated land, and puts forward the control measures for the divisions.The results show that: ① During the study period, nearly 50% of the cultivated land in China was not planted with rice, corn and wheat, and the ratio of non-grain of cultivated land was large; ②There is obvious regional imbalance in the non-grain of cultivated land in China, The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was the largest spatial disequilibrium, the lowest was South China, and the Northeast Plain, the Sichuan Basin and the Huanghuaihai Plain, etc. increased significantly during the study period, and the differences in ecological environment, rainfall and rural labor force are the main factors of regional disequilibrium. ③The Northeast Plain, the Huanghuaihai Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are mainly affected by topography, grain income, and urban-rural income gap. South China, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the arid and semi-arid regions in the north are affected by the level of urbanization development and the labor resources of the primary industry. The ecological environment in the Loess Plateau is fragile, and precipitation has a significant impact on the non-grain of cultivated land. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin are greatly affected by the irrigation level of cultivated land. ④ The introduction of rigid control policies and measures has an obvious effect on curbing the non-grain of cultivated land. It is suggested to implement zoning regulation and control, adopt rigid control such as high-standard farmland quality improvement and strengthening cultivated land use control in areas with severe non-grain cultivated land, and implement a flexible control system focusing on prevention and control increment in other regions, so as to effectively curb the non-grain of cultivated land.

Key words: non-grain cultivated land, Dagum Gini Coefficient, Spatial Error Models, zoning policy

摘要：

科学识别非粮化驱动力，对遏制耕地非粮化、守牢18亿亩耕地红线有重要意义。本文以中国农业分区为研究单元，采用Dagum基尼系数及空间误差模型识别了各农业区耕地非粮化驱动力，并提出分区调控措施。结果表明：①研究期内，中国有近五成耕地未种植水稻、玉米、小麦三大谷物，耕地非粮化整体程度高。②中国耕地非粮化存在明显区域非均衡性，青藏高原空间非均衡程度最大，华南区最小，东北平原区、四川盆地、黄淮海平原区等六大区域在研究期内上升幅度较大，区域间生态环境、降雨量、农村劳动力数量等差异是区域非均衡性的主要因素。③东北平原区、黄淮海平原区和长江中下游地区主要受地形、种粮收益、城乡收入差距的影响；华南区、青藏高原区及北方干旱半干旱区主要受城镇化发展水平和第一产业劳动力数量的影响；黄土高原区生态环境脆弱，降水量对耕地非粮化有显著影响；云贵高原区和四川盆地受耕地灌溉水平的影响较大。④刚性管控政策的出台对耕地非粮化遏制效果明显。建议实施分区调控，对耕地非粮化重度区采取高标准农田提质改造及加强耕地用途管制等刚性管控措施，对其他区域实施以控制增量为主的弹性管制制度，以有效遏制耕地非粮化。

关键词: 耕地非粮化, Dagum基尼系数, 空间误差模型, 分区施策