Assessment and mechanism analysis of the geo-integrated risk of Indochina Peninsula

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.06.2020478

Abstract

Abstract:

The Indochina Peninsula is an important area for the construction of the "Belt and Road". The comprehensive risk assessment system is constructed from the four dimensions of politics, economy, society and natural environment. And then, the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to assess the comprehensive risk and evolution of the Indochina Peninsula and five major countries. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive risk of the Indochina Peninsula is a medium to high level risk, of which political and economic risks are relatively high. (2) There are obvious spatial differences of the comprehensive risk. The average value of the comprehensive risk(U) is Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam in order from high to low. (3) From 2012 to 2018, the overall political risks of the five countries were relatively stable and showed a slight downward trend, of which political and social risks fluctuated significantly. (4) The key risk factors and mechanisms of the five countries are different. Finally, suggestions for risk prevention in different countries are put forward.

Key words: comprehensive assessment, risk factors, mechanism, prevention, Indochina Peninsula

摘要：

中南半岛是“一带一路”建设的重要区域。从政治、经济、社会和自然环境四个维度构建综合风险评价指标体系，采用AHP-模糊综合评价法对中南半岛及五个主要国家的综合风险及演变进行评估。研究结果表明：①中南半岛整体综合风险属于中等偏高风险，其中政治风险和经济风险较高。②中南半岛综合风险存在明显的空间分异，综合风险指数平均值由高至低依次为缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝、泰国和越南。③2012—2018年间，中南半岛五国综合风险整体较为平稳且呈现略微下降的趋势，其中政治风险和社会风险波动较大。④关键风险因子及作用机制在不同国家存在较大分异。最后，提出了不同国别的风险防范建议。

关键词: 风险评估, 风险因子, 作用机制, 风险防范, 中南半岛

Fangfang ZHANG, Hui LIU, Tao SONG, Wuzhati YEERKEN. Assessment and mechanism analysis of the geo-integrated risk of Indochina Peninsula[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(6): 1151-1162.

张芳芳, 刘慧, 宋涛, 叶尔肯·吾扎提null. 中南半岛地缘综合风险评价与机制分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(6): 1151-1162.

Figures/Tables 3

References 30

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目标层	准则层	指标层	权重	作用方向	数据来源
综合风险	政治风险（0.343）	清廉程度	0.163	负	全球清廉指数报告
		民主程度	0.166	负	世界民主指数报告
		法制程度	0.172	负	全球治理指数
		政治稳定程度	0.291	负	全球治理指数
		军费支出占比/%	0.208	正	世界银行
	经济风险（0.341）	人均GDP/美元	0.152	负	世界银行
		国家外债占比/%	0.134	正	世界银行
		通货膨胀率/%	0.191	正	各国统计局、世界银行
		营商便利度	0.300	负	世界银行
		对外贸易依存度/%	0.223	负	联合国贸易和发展会议
	社会风险（0.207）	恐怖事件发生次数/次	0.231	正	全球恐怖主义数据库
		失业率/%	0.184	正	世界银行
		基尼系数	0.265	正	世界银行、Knoema
		公共教育支出占比/%	0.161	负	世界银行
		公共医疗卫生支出占比/%	0.159	负	世界银行
	自然环境风险（0.109）	自然灾害死亡人数占比/%	0.212	正	The Emergency Events Database
		自然灾害经济损失占比/%	0.287	正	The Emergency Events Database
		人均可再生水资源拥有量/（m³/人）	0.217	负	世界银行
		人均碳排放量/（吨/人）	0.284	正	世界银行

目标层	准则层	指标层	权重	作用方向	数据来源
综合风险	政治风险（0.343）	清廉程度	0.163	负	全球清廉指数报告
		民主程度	0.166	负	世界民主指数报告
		法制程度	0.172	负	全球治理指数
		政治稳定程度	0.291	负	全球治理指数
		军费支出占比/%	0.208	正	世界银行
	经济风险（0.341）	人均GDP/美元	0.152	负	世界银行
		国家外债占比/%	0.134	正	世界银行
		通货膨胀率/%	0.191	正	各国统计局、世界银行
		营商便利度	0.300	负	世界银行
		对外贸易依存度/%	0.223	负	联合国贸易和发展会议
	社会风险（0.207）	恐怖事件发生次数/次	0.231	正	全球恐怖主义数据库
		失业率/%	0.184	正	世界银行
		基尼系数	0.265	正	世界银行、Knoema
		公共教育支出占比/%	0.161	负	世界银行
		公共医疗卫生支出占比/%	0.159	负	世界银行
	自然环境风险（0.109）	自然灾害死亡人数占比/%	0.212	正	The Emergency Events Database
		自然灾害经济损失占比/%	0.287	正	The Emergency Events Database
		人均可再生水资源拥有量/（m³/人）	0.217	负	世界银行
		人均碳排放量/（吨/人）	0.284	正	世界银行

风险指数	国家	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
综合风险指数（U）	缅甸	0.714	0.735	0.680	0.681	0.642	0.640	0.649
	老挝	0.525	0.497	0.451	0.421	0.434	0.440	0.474
	越南	0.420	0.387	0.394	0.386	0.358	0.330	0.338
	柬埔寨	0.478	0.501	0.490	0.466	0.486	0.503	0.494
	泰国	0.371	0.401	0.396	0.379	0.397	0.344	0.338
政治风险指数（U₁）	缅甸	0.917	0.881	0.843	0.839	0.678	0.702	0.738
	老挝	0.474	0.431	0.364	0.364	0.325	0.364	0.358
	越南	0.413	0.397	0.423	0.405	0.326	0.306	0.344
	柬埔寨	0.475	0.514	0.473	0.496	0.488	0.540	0.560
	泰国	0.374	0.413	0.369	0.391	0.401	0.351	0.355
经济风险指数（U₂）	缅甸	0.702	0.745	0.734	0.791	0.759	0.719	0.745
	老挝	0.797	0.808	0.744	0.700	0.726	0.731	0.781
	越南	0.506	0.408	0.412	0.345	0.354	0.297	0.286
	柬埔寨	0.568	0.609	0.627	0.562	0.593	0.595	0.585
	泰国	0.219	0.230	0.271	0.246	0.260	0.215	0.203
社会风险指数（U₃）	缅甸	0.540	0.629	0.453	0.373	0.514	0.544	0.489
	老挝	0.395	0.322	0.323	0.253	0.343	0.298	0.396
	越南	0.178	0.226	0.223	0.327	0.317	0.322	0.325
	柬埔寨	0.353	0.343	0.343	0.307	0.373	0.374	0.324
	泰国	0.431	0.505	0.472	0.388	0.438	0.350	0.347
自然环境风险指数（U₄）	缅甸	0.442	0.446	0.429	0.424	0.403	0.384	0.369
	老挝	0.075	0.058	0.051	0.045	0.040	0.035	0.030
	越南	0.628	0.594	0.574	0.564	0.548	0.525	0.504
	柬埔寨	0.441	0.419	0.397	0.377	0.356	0.339	0.324
	泰国	0.722	0.703	0.723	0.738	0.738	0.714	0.691

风险指数	国家	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
综合风险指数（U）	缅甸	0.714	0.735	0.680	0.681	0.642	0.640	0.649
	老挝	0.525	0.497	0.451	0.421	0.434	0.440	0.474
	越南	0.420	0.387	0.394	0.386	0.358	0.330	0.338
	柬埔寨	0.478	0.501	0.490	0.466	0.486	0.503	0.494
	泰国	0.371	0.401	0.396	0.379	0.397	0.344	0.338
政治风险指数（U₁）	缅甸	0.917	0.881	0.843	0.839	0.678	0.702	0.738
	老挝	0.474	0.431	0.364	0.364	0.325	0.364	0.358
	越南	0.413	0.397	0.423	0.405	0.326	0.306	0.344
	柬埔寨	0.475	0.514	0.473	0.496	0.488	0.540	0.560
	泰国	0.374	0.413	0.369	0.391	0.401	0.351	0.355
经济风险指数（U₂）	缅甸	0.702	0.745	0.734	0.791	0.759	0.719	0.745
	老挝	0.797	0.808	0.744	0.700	0.726	0.731	0.781
	越南	0.506	0.408	0.412	0.345	0.354	0.297	0.286
	柬埔寨	0.568	0.609	0.627	0.562	0.593	0.595	0.585
	泰国	0.219	0.230	0.271	0.246	0.260	0.215	0.203
社会风险指数（U₃）	缅甸	0.540	0.629	0.453	0.373	0.514	0.544	0.489
	老挝	0.395	0.322	0.323	0.253	0.343	0.298	0.396
	越南	0.178	0.226	0.223	0.327	0.317	0.322	0.325
	柬埔寨	0.353	0.343	0.343	0.307	0.373	0.374	0.324
	泰国	0.431	0.505	0.472	0.388	0.438	0.350	0.347
自然环境风险指数（U₄）	缅甸	0.442	0.446	0.429	0.424	0.403	0.384	0.369
	老挝	0.075	0.058	0.051	0.045	0.040	0.035	0.030
	越南	0.628	0.594	0.574	0.564	0.548	0.525	0.504
	柬埔寨	0.441	0.419	0.397	0.377	0.356	0.339	0.324
	泰国	0.722	0.703	0.723	0.738	0.738	0.714	0.691

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