Abstract:

As a strategic mineral resource, nickel is widely used in the production of such products as alloys, electroplating, batteries and catalysts. With the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry in recent years, the global demand for nickel metal has increased significantly. In this context, studying the evolution of global nickel trade patterns and its resilience is vital for obtaining an in-depth understanding the global nickel supply chain system. Therefore, taking international nickel trade as the research object, this paper constructs a long-time series global nickel trade network dataset, portrays the spatiotemporal patterns of the global nickel trade network, explores the topological structure of the global nickel trade network, and investigate the resilience changes of the global nickel trade network to deepen the knowledge of the global nickel trade system and supply chain security. The main research findings include the following: ①Global nickel trade volumes show a change in trend from one of rapid growth to one of stable development. ②Global nickel trade patterns have undergone an obvious spatial reconfiguration process, with the network's scale, density and linkage first rising rapidly and then diverging while showing a pattern of concentration in a few core countries. China has become the world's largest nickel importer and trader. ③The global nickel trade network shows clear hierarchical structures, with China, Germany, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Canada having high centrality and the major nickel importing countries having an important position in and being the core hubs of the global nickel trade network.④The global nickel trade network is characterized by prominent core–periphery structures and the ratio of core to peripheral countries basically remains stable, but the coreness of individual countries experiences structural changes. ⑤The resilience of the global nickel trade network shows a decreasing trend, with a few nodes and edges playing key roles for network connectivity. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote international cooperation in global nickel trade and maintain the stability of the global nickel supply chain.

Key words: nickel resources, international trade, trade network, "core-periphery" structure, complex network, network resilience

摘要：

作为战略性矿产资源，镍被广泛应用于合金、电镀、电池和催化剂等行业。随着新能源汽车等产业的迅猛发展，世界各国对镍金属的需求显著提升。在此背景下，剖析全球镍资源贸易网络格局及其韧性演化特征对于全面认知全球镍供应链体系具有重要意义。以国际镍资源贸易为研究对象，通过构建长时间序列的全球贸易数据集，刻画全球镍资源贸易网络时空格局及其拓扑结构，揭示全球镍资源贸易的韧性演化，以期深化对全球镍资源贸易体系及供应链安全的认知。主要结论如下：①全球镍资源进出口贸易规模呈现出先快速增长、后平稳发展的变化态势；②全球镍资源贸易格局经历了明显的空间重构过程，网络规模、密度和联系先快速上升、后有所分化，呈现出向少数核心国集中的趋势。中国已成为全球第一大镍资源进口贸易国；③全球镍资源贸易网络呈现出层次清晰的等级结构，中国、德国、美国、法国、英国和加拿大等国在镍资源贸易网络中有较高的中心性，主要镍进口国在网络中具有重要的地位，是网络的核心枢纽；④全球镍资源贸易网络具有明显的“核心-边缘”结构，核心国家和边缘国家数量比例基本维持稳定，但各国核心度经历了结构性变迁；⑤全球镍资源贸易网络韧性呈现出下降趋势，少数节点与连边对网络连通性起到关键作用。最后，论文提出了一些促进镍资源贸易国际合作、维护全球镍供应链稳定性的政策建议。

关键词: 镍资源, 国际贸易, 贸易网络, “核心-边缘”结构, 复杂网络, 网络韧性