Abstract:

Based on multi-source remote sensing data, this study constructs a land cover change chain-spectrum evolution model to address the disconnection between time series analysis and spatial mapping in land cover change studies. It discusses the dynamic changes of land cover and its driving mechanism in Oman, thereby revealing the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land cover in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and providing a decision-making basis for regional cooperation. The results indicate that: ① Oman's land cover is dominated by deserts, while cropland, impervious surfaces, and shrublands occupy a relatively small proportion. Between 1995 and 2020, cropland, impervious surfaces, and shrublands expanded by 2.18, 3.43, and 7.8 times, respectively, reflecting a pattern of ecological restoration, oasis expansion, and impervious surface growth. ② The northern Hajar Mountains and the southern Dhofar Plateau are identified as land cover change hotspots, with significant temporal differences in land cover transitions. Cropland expansion was concentrated in 2005-2015, impervious surface expansion primarily occurred in 2000-2015, and shrubland growth was notable during 1995-2000 and 2015-2020. ③ Land cover transitions mainly occurred among sand, shrubland, cropland, and impervious surfaces, forming three major types of transfer chains: unidirectional, reciprocal, and stochastic, with unidirectional chains being dominant. The most significant transitions include sand to shrubland (7_A4 and 7_E4), sand to cropland (7_E1), and sand to impervious surfaces (7_D6), primarily occurring in the southern Salalah port and northern coastal radiation zones. ④ Land cover change in Oman presents a pattern in which two processes—"population agglomeration-economic growth-urban expansion" and "ecological governance-vegetation restoration"-advance in parallel and co-evolve internally. Human activity factors, including population, economy, and urbanization, are the dominant drivers of pattern evolution, while natural factors such as topography and climate provide the fundamental constraints. The trend of land degradation has been effectively mitigated. In the future, continuous efforts in desertification control should be made to balance urbanization and ecological restoration, thereby achieving the sustainable management of land resources.

Key words: land cover change, chain-spectrum feature evolution, driving mechanism, Oman

摘要：

本文基于多源遥感数据，针对土地覆被变化中时间序列分析和空间图谱分析相互割裂的问题，构建土地覆被变化链谱特征演化模型，探讨阿曼土地覆被动态变化及驱动机制，为区域合作提供决策依据。研究结果表明：①阿曼的土地覆被以荒漠为主，耕地、不透水面及重要生态用地灌丛面积比例很低。1995—2020年，耕地、不透水面和灌丛依次扩张了2.18倍、3.43倍和7.8倍，呈现出生态恢复、绿洲增加以及不透水面扩张的基本特征。②北部哈贾尔山区和南部佐法尔高原是土地覆被变化的热点区域，不同地类转换的热点时段有明显差异。耕地扩张主要时段为2005—2015年，不透水面扩张主要发生在2000—2015年，灌丛面积的增加主要发生在1995—2000年和2015—2020年。③土地覆被变化主要发生在沙地-灌丛-耕地-不透水面之间，形成了单向链、往复链和随机链3类转移链，且以单向链为主。单向链中以沙地转灌丛、沙地转耕地、沙地转不透水面为主，主要发生在南部塞拉莱港和北部沿海辐射地区。④阿曼土地覆被变化呈现出“人口聚集-经济增长-城市扩张”与“生态治理-植被恢复”两类过程并行推进、内部协同演化的格局。人类活动因素（人口、经济、城市化等）主导驱动格局演变，自然因子（地形、气候等）构成基础约束，土地退化趋势得到有效缓解。未来阿曼应持续推进荒漠化治理，平衡城市化与生态修复，以实现土地资源的可持续管理。

关键词: 土地覆被变化, 链谱特征演化, 驱动机制, 阿曼