新疆农村贫困化空间分布及影响因素探究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.03.2018504

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在国家大力推进精准扶贫的政策背景下，分析不同地区贫困成因的差异性具有重要意义。本文以新疆维吾尔自治区莎车县荒地镇为研究区，通过地理探测器和地理加权回归模型探究该区贫困人口和状态的空间分布及其影响因素，研究结果表明：1)荒地镇农村贫困化呈现一定范围内集聚分布的特征，镇域中部和北部地区的贫困发生率明显高于其周边地区，中部的贫困地区由中心向四周扩散，北部的贫困发生率低于中部。2)导致贫困的主要因素包括距主干道距离、人口密度和男性人口所占比例。3)距离主干道的距离与贫困发生率呈现出明显的正向相关的关系，距离镇中心的距离与贫困发生率呈现出一定的负相关关系，人口密度与贫困发生率呈现出明显的负相关关系。4)依据不同地区贫困形成的主导因素，贫困地区可以划分为道路制约型和人口制约型，其中道路制约性主要分布在荒地镇的东南地区，而人口制约性主要分布在北部地区。针对不同成因的农村贫困，本文提出应该采用不同策略的扶贫措施。

关键词: 贫困发生率, 空间格局, 地理探测器, 地理加权回归模型

Abstract:

Under the background of the country's policy of promoting precise poverty alleviation, it is of great significance to analyze the differences in the causes of poverty in different regions. This paper takes the Wasteland town of Shache County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as the research area, and explores the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the poor population and state in the region through geo-detectors and the geographically weighted regression models. The results show that: 1) the rural poverty in the wasteland town The characteristics of agglomeration distribution within a certain range, the incidence of poverty in the central and northern regions is significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas, and the poverty-stricken areas in the central part spread from the center to the periphery, and the incidence of poverty in the north is lower than that in the central part. 2) The main factors leading to poverty include the distance from the main road, the population density and the proportion of the male population. 3) The distance from the main road has a positive correlation with the incidence of poverty. The distance from the town center has a negative correlation with the incidence of poverty. The population density and the incidence of poverty show a significant negative correlation. relationship. 4) According to the dominant factors of poverty formation in different regions, poverty-stricken areas can be divided into road-constrained and population-constrained types, of which road constraints are mainly distributed in the southeastern part of the wasteland town, while population constraints are mainly distributed in the northern region. In view of the rural poverty of different causes, this paper proposes that poverty alleviation measures should be adopted with different strategies.

Key words: poverty incidence, spatial pattern, geographic detector, geographically weighted regression model

孟颖, 曹月娥. 新疆农村贫困化空间分布及影响因素探究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(3): 650-658.

Ying MENG, Yue‘e CAO. Study on the spatial distribution and influential factors of rural poverty in Xinjiang[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(3): 650-658.

图/表 6

参考文献 24

1	邓小海.旅游精准扶贫研究.昆明:云南大学, 2015.
	Deng X. Research on tourism precision poverty alleviation. Kunming: Yunnan University, 2015.
2	沈茂英.四川藏区精准扶贫面临的多维约束与化解策略.农村经济,2015(6):62-66.
	Shen M. Multidimensional constraints and resolution strategies for precision poverty alleviation in Sichuan Tibetan Areas. Rural Economy, 2015(6):62-66.
3	丁建军,冷志明.区域贫困的地理学分析.地理学报, 2018,73(2):232-247.
	Ding J, Leng Z. Geographic analysis of regional poverty. Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(2):232-247.
4	刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊, 2016(3):269-278.
	Liu Y, ZhouY, Liu J. Differentiation characteristics of rural poverty in China and its poverty alleviation strategy. Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,(3):269-278.
5	佟玉权,龙华楼.脆弱生态环境耦合下的贫困地区可持续发展研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2003,13(2):47-51.
	Geng Y, Long H. Study on the sustainable development of poor areas under the coupling of fragile ecology environment. China Population, Resources & Environment, 2003,13(2):47-51
6	刘慧.新时期西部地区贫困问题研究. 地理研究, 2001(4):489-497.
	Liu H. Study on poverty problem in western regions in the new period.Geographical Research,2001(4):489-497.
7	刘彦随,进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 161-173.
	Liu Y, Jin T. Geographic detection and optimization decision-making of differentiation mechanisms of rural poverty in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 161-173.
8	何深静,左姣姣,朱寿佳,等.中国大城市贫困研究的多种测度与多层模型分析.人文地理,2014(6):74-80.
	He S, Zuo J, Zhu S, et al. Multivariate measures and multi-layer model analysis of poverty research in China's big cities. Human Geography,2014(6):74-80.
9	刘小鹏,苏晓芳,王亚娟,等. 空间贫困研究及其对我国贫困地理研究的启示.干旱区地理, 2014,37(1): 144-152.
	Liu X, Su X, WangY, et al. Research on space poverty and its enlightenment to the study of poverty geography in China. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(1):144-152.
10	陈烨烽,王艳慧,王小林.中国贫困村测度与空间分布特征分析. 地理研究, 2016,35(12): 298-2308.
	Chen H, Wang Y, Wang X. Analysis of the measurement and spatial distribution characteristics of poor villages in China. Geographical Research, 2016,35(12): 298-2308.
11	武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素—以陕西山阳县为例. 地理研究, 2018.37 (3): 593-606.
	Wu P, Li T, Li W. Spatial differentiation of rural poverty in county and its influencing factors: A case study of Shanyang County, Shaanxi Province. Geographical Research, 2018.37 (3): 593-606.
12	张蕴萍.中国农村贫困形成机理的内外因素评析. 山东社会科学, 2011(8):33-37.
	Zhang Y. Analysis of internal and external factors in the formation mechanism of rural poverty in China. Shandong Social Sciences, 2011(8):33-37.
13	丁建军.区域贫困的地理学分析. 地理学报, 2018.73(2): 232-247.
	Ding J. Geographic analysis of regional poverty. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(2): 232-247
14	毛学峰, 辛贤. 贫困形成机制——分工理论视角的经济学解释. 农业经济问题, 2004(2): 34-39.
	Mao X, Xin X. The mechanism of poverty formation——An economic interpretation from the perspective of division of labor theory. Agricultural Economic Issues,2004(2): 34-39.
15	王义民,王婷婷.河南省贫困人口空间分布及其地域特征研究.信阳师范学院学报：自然科学版, 2018,31(4): 606-610.
	Wang Y, Wang T. Study on the spatial distribution and regional characteristics of poverty population in Henan Province. Journal of Xinyang Teachers College：Natural Science Edition, 2018,31(4): 606-610.
16	暴向平,薛东前,刘溪,等.基于多尺度的西安市新城市贫困空间分布特征及其形成原因.干旱区资源与环境, 2015,29(1): 19-24.
	Huo X, Xue D, Liu X, et al. Distribution characteristics of poverty-stricken space in Xi'an New City based on multi-scale and its formation reasons. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2015,29(1):19-24.
17	马志飞,尹上岗,乔文怡,等.中国医疗卫生资源供给水平的空间均衡状态及其时间演变. 地理科学, 2018,38(6): 869-876.
	Ma Z, Yin S, Qiao W, et al. The spatial equilibrium state of China's medical and health resources supply level and its temporal evolution. Geographical Science, 2018,38(6):869-876.
18	马志飞,李在军,张雅倩,等.中国医疗卫生资源供给水平的空间均衡状态及其时间演变. 经济地理, 2017,37(02): 76-82.
	Ma Z, Li Z, Zhang Y, et al. The spatial equilibrium state of China's medical and health resources supply level and its temporal evolution. Economic Geography, 2017,37(02):76-82.
19	尹上岗,宋伟轩,马志飞,等.南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究. 人文地理, 2018,33(03):68-77.
	Yin S, Song W, Ma Z, et al. Analysis of spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of residential prices in Nanjing and its influencing factors——An empirical study based on geographically weighted regression model. Human Geography, 2018,33(03):68-77.
20	Demurger S．Infrastructure development and economic growth: An explanation for regional disparities in China?. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2001,29(1):95-117.
21	Shenggen Fan，Linxiu Zhang，Xiaobo Zhang．Growth Inequality and Poverty in Rural China: The Role of Public Investments. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2002.
22	高明景.乡村道路硬化后养护与管理措施.交通世界, 2018,2(454): 228-229.
	Gao M. Maintenance and management measures after hardening of rural roads. Traffic world, 2018,2(454): 228-229.
23	Eric M. White, Anita T. Morzillo, Ralph J. Alig. Past and projected rural land conversion in the US at state, regional, and national levels. Landscape Urban Plan, 2009, 89(1/2): 37-48.
24	王国刚,刘彦随,王介勇.中国农村空心化演进机理与调控策略. 农业现代化研究, 2015, 36(1): 34-40.
	Wang G, Liu Y, Wang J. The evolution mechanism and regulation strategy of rural hollowization in China. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2015, 36(1): 34-40.

因素	x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅
-4	0.253484	0.122671	0.495225	0.286604	0.394040
-3	0.325976	0.596389	0.806350	0.313992	0.316287
-2	0.516576	0.544444	0.869652	0.479241	0.431571
-1	0.176480	0.540275	0.422565	0.381928	0.556950
0	0.376502	0.373952	0.201208	0.416112	0.447511
1	0.306535	0.592762	0.269150	0.715305	0.474602
2	0.315589	0.326469	0.294282	0.423757	0.836066
3	0.815412	0.457110	0.448672	0.499221	0.043750
4	0.919845	0.079031	0.068280	0.487234	0.122671

因素	x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅
-4	0.253484	0.122671	0.495225	0.286604	0.394040
-3	0.325976	0.596389	0.806350	0.313992	0.316287
-2	0.516576	0.544444	0.869652	0.479241	0.431571
-1	0.176480	0.540275	0.422565	0.381928	0.556950
0	0.376502	0.373952	0.201208	0.416112	0.447511
1	0.306535	0.592762	0.269150	0.715305	0.474602
2	0.315589	0.326469	0.294282	0.423757	0.836066
3	0.815412	0.457110	0.448672	0.499221	0.043750
4	0.919845	0.079031	0.068280	0.487234	0.122671

交互探测因素	交互探测值	交互探测类型
x₁ ∩ x₂	0.918134546	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₃	0.89230337	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₄	0.897833907	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₅	0.991081105	非线性增强
x₂∩ x₃	0.981178821	非线性增强
x₂∩ x₄	0.641942575	非线性增强
x₂ ∩ x₅	0.800203464	非线性增强
x₃ ∩ x=	0.87039336	非线性增强
x₃ ∩ x₅	0.945411295	非线性增强
x₄ ∩ x₅	0.94516175	非线性增强

交互探测因素	交互探测值	交互探测类型
x₁ ∩ x₂	0.918134546	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₃	0.89230337	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₄	0.897833907	非线性增强
x₁ ∩ x₅	0.991081105	非线性增强
x₂∩ x₃	0.981178821	非线性增强
x₂∩ x₄	0.641942575	非线性增强
x₂ ∩ x₅	0.800203464	非线性增强
x₃ ∩ x=	0.87039336	非线性增强
x₃ ∩ x₅	0.945411295	非线性增强
x₄ ∩ x₅	0.94516175	非线性增强

[1]	银松, 李瑞, 殷红梅. 旅游发展背景下民族村寨居民地方性感知测度及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 144-156.
[2]	初楠臣, 张平宇, 吴相利, 徐爽, 史晓楠. 俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的扩散：过程、格局与影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 41-51.
[3]	韩昊英, 陈宇, 张小东, 蒋懿康. 新冠疫情下城市应急医疗设施空间配置评价研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 162-173.
[4]	王丽敏, 吴相利, 刘凡, 张少铎. CEO空间经历对中国民营企业500强总部区位选择影响分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 67-79.
[5]	陈鹏鑫, 曾刚, 胡浩, 何金廖, 葛世帅. 国家高新区研发人员集聚的空间特征与影响因子探究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 80-91.
[6]	孟克祖勒, 阎建忠, 王三. 重庆市主城区休闲设施空间格局变化及其解释[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1057-1069.
[7]	陈昕, 谢玲, 刘素红, 贾艳红, 肖小慧, 梁瑜. 广西手足口病时空分异及其地理环境因子探测分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1108-1118.
[8]	张家旗, 关小克, 王肖惠. 郑州市旅游资源空间格局特征及便利度评价[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 998-1008.
[9]	夏启繁. 中国对RCEP国家能源投资布局与风险的时空特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(4): 814-826.
[10]	李云涛, 陶犁. 基于地理探测器的云南省边境州市旅游发展水平空间分异及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 624-636.
[11]	吴丽君, 朱宇, 颜俊, 柯文前, 林李月. “一带一路”沿线国家或地区间人口迁移的空间格局及其演化特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 249-258.
[12]	吴丹丹, 吴杨, 马仁锋, 余建辉, 冯学钢. 浙江美丽乡村空间格局及可持续发展模式研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 363-375.
[13]	应奎, 李旭东. 中国人口死亡率空间格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 440-452.
[14]	刘欢, 孟德友. 高铁背景下省会城市交通优势度空间分异及影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(1): 107-119.
[15]	李衡, 韩燕. 黄河流域PM_2.5时空演变特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(1): 130-141.