流动人口的城市定居意愿及影响因素——以安徽省为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.06.2019546

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

流动人口市民化是以人为核心的新型城镇化的客观要求，系统探索流动人口的城市定居意愿既是促进流动人口市民化的前提，又能为城市管理提供决策依据，已成为当前地理学、社会学研究的重点。本研究基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，以安徽省为案例地，在探讨安徽省人口流动的总体特征上，运用Logistic回归模型，解析流动人口城市定居意愿及影响因素，探究流动人口城市定居意愿的代际差异。结果表明：（1）安徽省流动人口以跨省流动为主，人口流动家庭化趋势明显，流向省外人口主要向长三角城市集聚，但流动人口规模已呈现逐年下降的趋势，经济发展水平和空间距离是影响人口流动的主要原因。（2）安徽省流动人口的定居意愿较高，有随着流入地经济水平的提高而增加的趋势；从新生代与初代流动人口来看，初代流动人口更倾向于选择经济发展较好的城市定居，而新生代流动人口更倾向于选择经济发展中等和较弱的城市定居，但整体差异不大。（3）从流动人口城市定居意愿的影响因素来看，同住人数、流动原因、流动时长、流入地经济发展水平、户口所在地的影响最大；从代际之间来看，性别、就业收入、净收入、就业身份等因素显著影响新生代流动人口，而家属随迁、流动地经济水平、年龄对初代流动人口的影响较为显著。

关键词: 流动人口, 定居意愿, 影响因素, 安徽省

Abstract:

Systematically exploring the settlement intention of floating population in the cities is not only the premise to promote the citizenship of floating population, but also the basis for decision-making in urban management. It has become the focus of current geography and sociology. Based on the data of the dynamic monitoring survey of the floating population in China in 2015, this study uses logistic regression model to explore the general characteristics of the floating population in Anhui Province, to analyze the settlement intention of floating population in the cities and its influencing factors. The results show that: (1) The migrant population in Anhui Province is mainly inter-provincial migration. The migrant population outside Anhui Province mainly gathers in the cities of Yangtze River Delta, but the scale of migrant population has shown a downward trend year by year. Economic development level and spatial distance are the main reasons for population migration. (2) The floating population in Anhui Province has a higher settlement intention, which tends to increase with the improvement of the economic level of the inflow areas; and the first generation of the floating population is more inclined to choose cities with better economic development to settle down, while the new generation is more inclined to choose cities with moderate and weak economic development to settle down, but the overall difference is not significant. (3) According to the influencing factors of the floating population's settlement intention in cities, the impact of the number of co-residents, the reasons for the flow, the length of the flow, the level of economic development in the inflow area and the location of household registration is most significant. From the intergenerational point of view, gender, employment income, net income, employment status and other factors significantly affect the new generation of migrant population, while family follow-up, economic level of migrant areas, age has a more significant impact on the first generation of migrant population.

Key words: floating population, settlement intention, influencing factors, Anhui Province

杨成凤, 柏广言, 韩会然. 流动人口的城市定居意愿及影响因素——以安徽省为例[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(6): 1136-1147.

Chengfeng YANG, Guangyan BAI, Huiran HAN. Influencing factors and settlement intention in cities of floating population: A case study of Anhui Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(6): 1136-1147.

图/表 5

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时间	2007年	2009年	2011年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年
15岁以下（%）	7.22	7.61	8.67	8.87	9.49	8.87	9.77
15~64岁（%）	91.82	91.52	89.31	89.43	88.27	88.97	88.37
65岁以上（%）	0.96	0.87	2.01	1.7	2.24	2.16	1.86
劳动力性别比	131.21	132.82	125.33	124.75	125.55	134.34	121.48
平均年龄	29.13	30.52	31.59	32.32	32.84	33.45	32.82

时间	2007年	2009年	2011年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年
15岁以下（%）	7.22	7.61	8.67	8.87	9.49	8.87	9.77
15~64岁（%）	91.82	91.52	89.31	89.43	88.27	88.97	88.37
65岁以上（%）	0.96	0.87	2.01	1.7	2.24	2.16	1.86
劳动力性别比	131.21	132.82	125.33	124.75	125.55	134.34	121.48
平均年龄	29.13	30.52	31.59	32.32	32.84	33.45	32.82

类型	全省			经济发展较弱城市			经济发展中等城市			经济发展较好城市
	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好
新生代	69.2	10.5	20.3	65.6	13.2	21.2	66.8	10.7	22.3	71.1	9.7	19.2
初代	70.6	11	18.4	64.8	18	17	66.1	10.7	23.2	76.4	7.8	15.8
全部	69.8	10.7	19.5	65.2	15.5	19.2	66.4	10.7	22.9	72.9	9	18

类型	全省			经济发展较弱城市			经济发展中等城市			经济发展较好城市
	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好	打算	不打算	没想好
新生代	69.2	10.5	20.3	65.6	13.2	21.2	66.8	10.7	22.3	71.1	9.7	19.2
初代	70.6	11	18.4	64.8	18	17	66.1	10.7	23.2	76.4	7.8	15.8
全部	69.8	10.7	19.5	65.2	15.5	19.2	66.4	10.7	22.9	72.9	9	18

因素		定居者	非定居者			定居者	非定居者
个人属性				家庭属性
性别（%）	男	50.1	42.4	子女现居住地（%）	本地	82	62.6
性别（%）	女	49.9	57.6	子女现居住地（%）	非本地	18	37.4
平均年龄（岁）		34.46	34.72	月净收入（元）		3058.49	2822.29
受教育程度（%）	初中及以下	63.8	66.6	老人在老家居住（%）	是	56.4	51.3
	高中和中专	20.6	21.3	老人在老家居住（%）	否	43.6	48.7
	大专及以上	15.6	12.1	同住人数（个）		3.01	2.51
婚姻状况（%）	有配偶	94.8	86.8	流动特征
婚姻状况（%）	无配偶	5.2	13.2	流动范围（%）	跨省	7.6	17.9
就业属性					省内跨市	43.4	40.3
个人月收入（元）		4436.71	3841.74		市内跨县	49	41.8
周工作时长（时）		56.74	55.93	流动原因（%）	务工经商	78.5	74.1
单位性质（%）	个体/私营/社团	65.3	61.3		家属随迁	15.1	22.4
	外资/合资/股份	6.9	10.2		其他	6.4	3.5
	机关事业单位/国有/集体	11.4	14.3	制度属性
	无或其他	16.3	16.2	户口类型（%）	农业	85.5	86.6
就业身份（%）	雇员	50.7	60.1	户口类型（%）	其他	14.5	13.4
	雇主/自营劳动	48	38.9	本地健康档案（%）	是	31.1	28.7
	其他	1.3	1.1	本地健康档案（%）	否	68.9	71.3
经济特征				城镇职工医疗保险（%）	是	19	17
现居住城市（%）	经济较好城市	57	45.9	城镇职工医疗保险（%）	否	81	83
	经济中等城市	25.1	26.3	户口所在地（%）	安徽	92.4	82.1
	经济较弱城市	17.9	27.8	户口所在地（%）	其他	7.6	17.9