中国高铁开通地级市的房地产投资空间格局分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.05.2019561

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近些年我国高速铁路的建设，促进了制造业、生产性服务业的空间集聚。针对中国高铁建设是否也会促使房地产业空间集聚的问题，本文根据新经济地理学理论模型进行机理分析，采用2007—2017全国高铁列车班次数据，运用动态空间自回归模型（SAR）和空间杜宾模型（SDM）进行实证研究，得到以下结论：我国高铁快速发展改变了房地产市场潜力和房地产投资空间格局，出现房地产投资向核心城市聚集与向中小城市溢出同时发生现象。本区域高铁等交通基础设施改善，促进产业、人口和房地产投资在本区域集聚；跨区域高铁等交通基础设施改善，则会促进产业、人口和房地产投资的空间流动。房地产业在大城市过度集聚将产生拥挤效应，迫使房地产投资由核心大城市向高铁沿线中小城市扩散；具有优势地方资源的中小城市，高铁开通会加速房地产投资向其空间溢出。

关键词: 高铁, 房地产, 空间集聚, 面板模型, 投资

Abstract:

In recent years, the construction of high-speed railway in China has promoted the spatial agglomeration of manufacturing industry and productive service industry. Aiming at the problem of whether China's high-speed rail construction will also promote the spatial agglomeration of real estate industry, this paper analyzes the mechanism based on the theoretical model of new economic geography, uses the data of national high-speed rail trains in 2007-2017, uses the dynamic spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and spatial Doberman model (SDM) to conduct empirical research, and obtains the following conclusions: the rapid development of China's high-speed rail has changed the real estate market The market potential and the spatial pattern of real estate investment appear the phenomenon that the real estate investment gathers to the core city and overflows to the medium and small cities at the same time. The improvement of transport infrastructure such as high-speed rail in the region will promote the agglomeration of industry, population and real estate investment in the region; the improvement of transport infrastructure such as cross regional high-speed rail will promote the spatial flow of industry, population and real estate investment. The overcrowding effect of the real estate industry in the big cities will force the real estate investment to spread from the core big cities to the small and medium-sized cities along the high-speed rail; for the small and medium-sized cities with advantageous local resources, the opening of high-speed rail accelerates real estate investment to overflow into their space.

Key words: high speed rail, real estate, spatial agglomeration, panel data model, investment

游悠洋, 杨浩然. 中国高铁开通地级市的房地产投资空间格局分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 1073-1082.

Youyang YOU, Haoran YANG. Analysis of spatial agglomeration of real estate investment based on China's high-speed rail cities[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(5): 1073-1082.

图/表 6

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变量	期望	标准差	最小值	最大值
房地产投资额（Ininvest）	13.576	1.430	4.663	17.616
房地产从业人数（Inpop）	0.519	0.658	0.012	1.661
城市节点强度（DIT）	0.532	0.967	0	7.602
城市市场潜力（InMP）	8.829	8.4530	2	0.501
城市人口规模（Incit）	4.781	0.870	2.898	10.710
城市制造业规模（Inman）	1.574	1.397	0.192	5.685

变量	期望	标准差	最小值	最大值
房地产投资额（Ininvest）	13.576	1.430	4.663	17.616
房地产从业人数（Inpop）	0.519	0.658	0.012	1.661
城市节点强度（DIT）	0.532	0.967	0	7.602
城市市场潜力（InMP）	8.829	8.4530	2	0.501
城市人口规模（Incit）	4.781	0.870	2.898	10.710
城市制造业规模（Inman）	1.574	1.397	0.192	5.685

变量	方差膨胀值	1/方差膨胀值
dit	1.81	0.5510
inmp	1.47	0.6824
incit	1.69	0.5907
inman	1.80	0.5543
方差膨胀值期望	1.69

变量	方差膨胀值	1/方差膨胀值
dit	1.81	0.5510
inmp	1.47	0.6824
incit	1.69	0.5907
inman	1.80	0.5543
方差膨胀值期望	1.69

年份	lninvest	Inpop	DIT	lnmp	Incit	lnman
2007	0.575^***	0.378^***	2.886^***	3.049^***	0.447^***	0.545^***
2008	0.518^***	0.279^***	2.074^***	2.103^***	0.280^***	0.492^***
2009	0.473^***	0.280^***	1.332^***	1.649^***	0.316^***	0.432^***
2010	0.378^***	0.259^***	1.133^***	1.433^***	0.240^***	0.419^***
2011	0.390^***	0.237^***	1.097^***	1.191^***	0.246^***	0.420^***
2012	0.372^***	0.227^***	0.946^***	0.868^***	0.208^***	0.397^***
2013	0.323^***	0.209^***	0.756^***	0.920^***	0.181^***	0.361^***
2014	0.287^***	0.209^***	0.614^***	0.808^***	0.158^***	0.331^***
2015	0.158^***	0.082^***	0.242^***	0.328^***	0.079^***	0.189^***
2016	0.115^***	0.045^*	0.183^***	0.284^***	0.047^**	0.151^***
2017	0.120^***	0.052^**	0.172^***	0.252^***	0.050^**	0.153^***