长三角地区养老产业发展水平格局及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20220163

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口老龄化为养老产业发展带来重要机遇。以长三角41个城市为研究对象，利用2014年和2019年养老企业数据，探究长三角地区养老产业的时空格局及其影响因素。研究表明：①从2014年到2019年，长三角养老产业整体发展迅猛，且逐步形成以“合肥、南京、淮安、丽水”为核心的多中心空间格局；养老产业四大领域发展水平不一，呈现出“老年用品领域>老年护理领域>新兴领域>老年金融领域”依次递减的发展特征，老年用品领域发展在空间上最为均衡，新兴领域极化程度最高。②长三角养老产业发展受到人口基础、医疗水平、财政支出等因子的共同影响，且2014年和2019年影响因素差异明显：医疗水平和交通便利度对养老产业发展影响显著增强，经济实力对产业发展影响减弱。③不同领域养老产业发展的影响因素不同，人口基础、经济实力对老年护理领域和老年金融领域发展有积极促进作用，医疗水平、交通便利度分别是老年用品领域和新兴领域的主要影响因素。

关键词: 老龄化, 养老产业, 时空分异, 影响因素, 长三角

Abstract:

Great opportunities have been brought by population aging for the development of pension industry, this paper explores the spatio-temporal differences and influencing factors of pension industry in the Yangtze River Delta by using the data of retirement enterprises in 2014 and 2019. The research shows that: 1) The entire development of the pension industry in the Yangtze River Delta is rapid, and a multi-core spatial pattern centered on "Hefei, Nanjing, Huaian, and Lishui" has gradually formed. The performance of the four sectors varies, showing the development characteristics of "senior products sector > senior care sector > emerging sector > senior finance sector", the senior care sector developed the most evenly and the emerging sector developed the most polarized in space. 2) The development of pension industry in the Yangtze River Delta is influenced by a combination of factors such as the number of the elder, medical condition and financial expenditure, and the differences between the influencing factors in 2014 and 2019 are obvious: the impact of medical condition and accessibility on pension industry remarkably strengthened, while economic strength was weakened. 3) The influencing factors are distinct in different sectors, the number of the elder and economy strength have a positive contribution to the development of the elder care sector and the erlder finance sector, medical condition and accessibility are the main influencing factors for the elder products sector and the emerging sector respectively.

Key words: population aging, pension industry, spatio-temporal differentiation, influencing factors, Yangtze River Delta

李文, 李德升, 胡浩, 胡森林. 长三角地区养老产业发展水平格局及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 123-135.

Wen LI, Desheng LI, Hao HU, Senlin HU. The spatial pattern and influencing factors of the pension industry in Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(2): 123-135.

图/表 7

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一级指标	二级指标	具体企业
老年护理领域	养老照顾服务企业	居家、社区、机构养老照顾服务企业
	养老公共管理企业	政府养老管理服务和养老社会组织服务相关企业
	老年医疗卫生服务企业	老年疾病诊疗、康复护理等医疗卫生服务企业
老年金融领域	养老金融服务企业	老年商业保险、商业养老保险、养老理财服务、养老金信托、养老债券等相关企业
老年金融领域	老年社会保障服务企业	老年相关保险、老年人社会救助、慈善服务、社会福利、彩票公益金服务等相关企业
老年用品领域	老年健康促进与社会参与企业	老年旅游、健康养生、文化娱乐、运动休闲等企业
	老年用品及相关产品制造企业	老年食品、用品、药品、休闲娱乐产品、保健产品等制造企业
	老年用品及相关产品销售/租赁企业	老年用品及相关产品销售、老年相关产品租赁企业
	养老设施建设企业	养老设施建设、改造及装修维修、适老化及无障碍改造等
新兴领域	养老教育培训和人力资源服务企业	养老教育和技能培训、老年教育、养老人力资源服务等企业
	养老科技和智慧养老服务企业	养老科技和智慧养老服务等相关企业
	其他养老服务企业	养老传媒服务、老年法律服务和法律援助、养老相关展览服务等养老企业

一级指标	二级指标	具体企业
老年护理领域	养老照顾服务企业	居家、社区、机构养老照顾服务企业
	养老公共管理企业	政府养老管理服务和养老社会组织服务相关企业
	老年医疗卫生服务企业	老年疾病诊疗、康复护理等医疗卫生服务企业
老年金融领域	养老金融服务企业	老年商业保险、商业养老保险、养老理财服务、养老金信托、养老债券等相关企业
老年金融领域	老年社会保障服务企业	老年相关保险、老年人社会救助、慈善服务、社会福利、彩票公益金服务等相关企业
老年用品领域	老年健康促进与社会参与企业	老年旅游、健康养生、文化娱乐、运动休闲等企业
	老年用品及相关产品制造企业	老年食品、用品、药品、休闲娱乐产品、保健产品等制造企业
	老年用品及相关产品销售/租赁企业	老年用品及相关产品销售、老年相关产品租赁企业
	养老设施建设企业	养老设施建设、改造及装修维修、适老化及无障碍改造等
新兴领域	养老教育培训和人力资源服务企业	养老教育和技能培训、老年教育、养老人力资源服务等企业
	养老科技和智慧养老服务企业	养老科技和智慧养老服务等相关企业
	其他养老服务企业	养老传媒服务、老年法律服务和法律援助、养老相关展览服务等养老企业

变量	2014年			2019年
变量	OLS	SLM	SEM	OLS	SLM	SEM
Moran’s I	0.138^*			－0.232^*
x1	0.126^**	0.125^**	0.141^***	0.264	0.276	0.302^**
x2	0.032	0.032	0.021	－0.159^*	－0.169^*	－0.102
x3	0.1^***	0.1^***	0.099^***	0.023^*	0.036^*	－0.009
x4	－0.104^***	－0.104^***	－0.122^***	－0.305	－0.305	－0.325^***
x5	0.049^*	0.049^*	0.058^*	0.023^*	0.02^*	0.040
x6	0.030	0.030	0.030	0.403^*	0.393^*	0.337^***
x7	－0.010	－0.010	－0.001	0.096^*	0.081^*	0.119^*
x8	－0.051^*	－0.05^*	－0.058^**	－0.149^*	－0.162^*	－0.161^***
Constant	0.118^***	0.117^***	0.12^***	0.264^***	0.332^***	0.268^***
W_s（ρ）		0.004			－0.167
LAMBDA（λ）			－0.432^*			－0.505^*
R-squared	0.640	0.640	0.662	0.520	0.536	0.566
logL	90.40	90.40	90.99	54.92	55.52	56.02
AIC	－162.80	－160.80	－163.98	－91.85	－91.05	－94.05
SC	－147.38	－143.67	－148.55	－76.43	－73.91	－78.63

变量	2014年			2019年
变量	OLS	SLM	SEM	OLS	SLM	SEM
Moran’s I	0.138^*			－0.232^*
x1	0.126^**	0.125^**	0.141^***	0.264	0.276	0.302^**
x2	0.032	0.032	0.021	－0.159^*	－0.169^*	－0.102
x3	0.1^***	0.1^***	0.099^***	0.023^*	0.036^*	－0.009
x4	－0.104^***	－0.104^***	－0.122^***	－0.305	－0.305	－0.325^***
x5	0.049^*	0.049^*	0.058^*	0.023^*	0.02^*	0.040
x6	0.030	0.030	0.030	0.403^*	0.393^*	0.337^***
x7	－0.010	－0.010	－0.001	0.096^*	0.081^*	0.119^*
x8	－0.051^*	－0.05^*	－0.058^**	－0.149^*	－0.162^*	－0.161^***
Constant	0.118^***	0.117^***	0.12^***	0.264^***	0.332^***	0.268^***
W_s（ρ）		0.004			－0.167
LAMBDA（λ）			－0.432^*			－0.505^*
R-squared	0.640	0.640	0.662	0.520	0.536	0.566
logL	90.40	90.40	90.99	54.92	55.52	56.02
AIC	－162.80	－160.80	－163.98	－91.85	－91.05	－94.05
SC	－147.38	－143.67	－148.55	－76.43	－73.91	－78.63

变量	老年护理	老年金融	老年用品	新兴领域
x1	0.181^***	0.043^**	0.033	0.048
x2	－0.092^***	－0.013	－0.001	0.009
x3	0.036^*	0.040^***	－0.046	－0.045^*
x4	－0.110^**	－0.039^**	－0.069	－0.095^**
x5	0.019	－0.002	0.013	0.032
x6	0.093^***	0.042^***	0.138^***	0.064^*
x7	0.020	－0.015^*	0.013	0.094^***
x8	－0.017	－0.008	－0.07^**	－0.075^***
Constant	0.068^***	0.021^**	0.024^***	0.063^***
LAMBDA（λ）	－0.571^*	－0.946^***	－0.074	－0.968^***
R-squared	0.552	0.726	0.298	0.567