环渤海地区港口效率的时空分异、未来趋势及驱动因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.04.20220335

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用超效率SBM模型、核密度估计、泰尔指数对2001—2020年环渤海地区港口效率进行测度和时空演化分析，并结合Theil-Sen中值趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和Hurst指数进一步探讨港口效率的未来趋势，最后利用Tobit模型对港口效率的驱动因素进行识别。结果表明：①环渤海地区港口效率整体呈波动增长趋势，先后经历了快速增长和增长缓滞两个发展阶段；②环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异总体趋于缩小，“山东-津冀-辽宁”顺时针递减格局逐步衰弱；③环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异主要来源于区域内差异，而区域内差异主要由山东沿海地区内部差异造成；④未来，环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异存在再次扩大的风险；⑤港口功能、港口空间竞争和交通运输能力是驱动环渤海地区港口效率时空演化的主要因素，对外开放水平和腹地经济属于次要因素。

关键词: 港口效率, 时空分异, 驱动因素, Hurst指数, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

The super-efficiency SBM model, kernel density estimation and Theil index are used to measure and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region from 2001 to 2020. Further, the future trend of port efficiency is explored by combining the Theil-Sen median trend, Mann-Kendall test and Hurst index, and finally the driving factors of port efficiency are identified by using the Tobit model. The results show that: (1) The overall port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region shows a fluctuating growth trend, and has experienced two development stages of rapid growth and slow growth successively; (2) The regional differences of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region are significantly reduced, and the clockwise decreasing pattern of "Shandong-Jinji-Liaoning" is gradually weakened, and the spatial distribution of port efficiency is more balanced. (3) The spatial differences of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region are mainly from intra-regional differences, and the intra-regional differences are mainly caused by the intra-regional differences in the Shandong region. (4) In the future, there is a risk that the spatial difference of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region will expand again; (5) Port function, port spatial competition and transportation capacity are the main factors driving the spatio-temporal evolution of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region, while the level of opening up and hinterland economy are secondary factors.

Key words: port efficiency, spatio-temporal differentiation, driving factors, Hurst index, Bohai Rim region

周玉涛, 李振福, 邓昭. 环渤海地区港口效率的时空分异、未来趋势及驱动因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(4): 142-154.

Yutao ZHOU, Zhenfu LI, Zhao DENG. The spatio-temporal differentiation, future trends and driving factors of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(4): 142-154.

图/表 10

表1 模型参数及含义

Tab.1 The model parameters and meanings

参数	含义	参数	含义
$m 、 s$	投入、产出变量的个数	$s i -, s r +$	投入、产出的松弛变量
$x 、 y$	投入、产出矩阵	$x ∈ R m, y ∈ R s$	投入、产出的向量表达形式
$λ$	强度向量	$n$	决策单元个数
$k$	被决策单元	$r$	第 $r$ 个产出变量
$ρ$	港口效率值	$j$	第 $j$ 个决策单元

表1 模型参数及含义

Tab.1 The model parameters and meanings

参数	含义	参数	含义
$m 、 s$	投入、产出变量的个数	$s i -, s r +$	投入、产出的松弛变量
$x 、 y$	投入、产出矩阵	$x ∈ R m, y ∈ R s$	投入、产出的向量表达形式
$λ$	强度向量	$n$	决策单元个数
$k$	被决策单元	$r$	第 $r$ 个产出变量
$ρ$	港口效率值	$j$	第 $j$ 个决策单元

表2 港口效率测度及驱动因素指标体系

Tab.2 Measurement and influencing factor index system of port efficiency

类别	变量	变量释义	符号	单位
效率测度	投入要素	生产泊位数量	X₁	个
		万吨级以上泊位数量	X₂	个
		生产码头长度	X₃	米
		从业人员	X₄	人
	产出要素	港口货物吞吐量	Y₁	万吨
	产出要素	港口集装箱吞吐量	Y₂	万TEU
影响因素	港口空间竞争	HHI指数	PSC	—
	腹地经济	人均GDP	EC	元
	产业结构	第三产业占比	IN	%
	对外开放水平	实际利用外资	OP	万美元
	交通运输能力	综合功效值	TR	—
	港口功能	赋值	FU	—

图1 环渤海地区港口效率时间演进趋势图

Fig.1 Time evolution trend chart of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

表3 环渤海地区港口效率值及排名

Tab.3 The scores and rankings of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

港口	2001	2006	2011	2016	2020	均值	排名
丹东港	0.251	0.334	0.572	1.216	0.218	0.542	9
大连港	0.533	0.405	0.529	0.549	0.376	0.505	10
营口港	0.433	1.033	1.065	0.837	1.021	0.991	4
锦州港	0.271	0.427	0.632	0.592	0.901	0.587	8
秦皇岛港	1.492	0.929	1.024	0.464	0.530	0.894	5
唐山港	0.218	0.423	1.060	0.736	1.080	0.687	6
黄骅港	1.000	1.395	0.792	1.109	1.191	1.137	2
天津港	0.611	0.572	0.661	0.625	0.619	0.641	7
青岛港	2.259	2.420	1.949	2.039	1.631	2.071	1
烟台港	0.244	0.391	0.378	0.513	0.497	0.430	11
威海港	0.353	0.410	0.414	0.422	0.197	0.366	12
日照港	0.634	1.134	1.242	1.039	1.028	1.016	3

图2 环渤海地区港口效率核密度分布图

Fig.2 The kernel density distribution of port effiency in the Bohai Rim region

图3 环渤海地区港口效率空间差异的演进趋势

Fig.3 The evolution trend of the spatial difference of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

图4 环渤海地区港口效率的空间分布注：本图基于标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为 GS（2019）1822号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。以下地图同

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

表4 环渤海地区港口效率变化趋势统计

Tab.4 Statistics on the trend of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

S	Z	变化类型	比重
S<0	\|Z\|>1.96	明显下降	1/6
S≤0	\|Z\|≤1.96	轻微下降	1/3
S>0	\|Z\|≤1.96	轻微提升	1/6
S>0	\|Z\|>1.96	明显提升	1/3

图5 环渤海地区港口效率的变化趋势、Hurst指数及未来趋势

Fig.5 The changing trend， Hurst index and future trend of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

表5 面板Tobit模型估计结果

Tab.5 Tobit regression results

变量	环渤海模型（1）		山东沿海模型（2）		津冀沿海模型（3）		辽宁沿海模型（4）
PSC	0.368^*	(0.65)	2.842^*	(1.79)	0.252	(0.21)	－0.601	(－0.49)
lnEC	0.040^*	(0.72)	－0.305^*	(－1.78)	0.122^***	(1.57)	0.424^**	(2.32)
IN	－0.016	(－4.55)	－0.009	(－1.59)	－0.001	(－0.11)	0.016^**	(2.12)
lnOP	－0.067^**	(－2.52)	0.015	(0.30)	－0.193^***	(－3.14)	－0.146^***	(－3.59)
lnTR	0.343^***	(4.94)	0.424^***	(3.79)	0.264^*	(1.93)	0.015	(0.09)
FU	0.595^*	(1.95)	1.334^**	(2.35)	0.211^*	(0.92)	0.106^*	(0.45)
_cons	1.562^**	(2.26)	4.847^**	(2.24)	1.645	(1.48)	－1.761	(－0.89)
Sigma_u	0.426^***		0.462^***		0.108^**		0.171^**
Sigma_e	0.170^***		0.138^***		0.209^***		0.102^***
Rho	0.862		0.918		0.210		0.737
Wald检验	56.78^***		48.47^***		18.72^***		86.99^***
LR检验	321.12^***		128.99^***		7.65^**		10.99^***

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