基于县域尺度的乡村韧性测量及其影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20222029

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从抵御与吸收能力、恢复与适应能力、创新与转型能力三个维度构建乡村韧性测度指标体系，以湖南省101个县（市、区）为研究单元，以2012—2020年为研究时段，运用TOPSIS、灰色关联分析法，测度湖南省乡村韧性水平，分析其影响因素。结果表明：①研究期内，湖南省乡村韧性稳步提升，但整体韧性水平仍然不高，抵御与吸收能力、恢复与适应能力提升明显，创新与转型能力变化幅度较小，水平一直较低，成为湖南省乡村韧性的短板；②在空间格局上，湖南省乡村韧性的空间分布存在明显分异，韧性水平与所在城市的经济社会发展水平较为一致，呈现出长株潭城市群地区乡村韧性水平高，湘南地区、洞庭湖地区次之，湘西地区最低的格局；③从影响因素来看，经济发展水平、社会结构对乡村韧性影响较大。针对湖南省区域之间韧性水平差异的现状，应因地制宜，根据区域不同特点，把握影响乡村韧性的关键因子，采取针对性措施来提升乡村韧性整体水平。

关键词: 乡村韧性, 指标体系, 影响因素, 湖南省, 县域

Abstract:

This paper constructs a rural resilience measurement index system from three dimensions: resistance and absorptive capacity, recovery and adaptive capacity, innovation and transformation capacity. Taking 101 counties (cities, districts) in Hunan Province as the research units and 2012-2020 as the research period, this paper uses TOPSIS and grey correlation analysis to measure the level of rural resilience in Hunan Province and analyze its influencing factors. Results show that: ① From 2012 to 2020, rural resilience in Hunan Province has steadily improved, but the overall resilience level is still not high. Resistance and absorptive capacity, recovery and adaptability have improved significantly, and innovation and transformation capabilities have changed little and have been at a low level, which has become a weakness of rural resilience in Hunan Province; ② In terms of spatial pattern, the spatial distribution of rural resilience in Hunan Province is clearly differentiated. The resilience level is more consistent with the economic and social development level of the city where it is located. The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration has a high level of resilience, followed by the Dongting Lake area and southern Hunan, and the lowest pattern in the Xiangxi area; ③ From the perspective of influencing factors, the level of economic development and social structure have a greater impact on rural resilience. In view of the differences in resilience levels between regions in Hunan Province, measures should be taken in accordance with local conditions, grasp the key factors affecting rural resilience according to different regional characteristics, and take targeted measures to improve the overall level of rural resilience.

Key words: rural resilience, index system, influencing factors, Hunan Province, county

宋关东, 唐承丽, 周国华. 基于县域尺度的乡村韧性测量及其影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 128-140.

Guandong SONG, Chengli TANG, Guohua ZHOU. Analysis of rural resilience measurement and its influencing factors based on county scale: A case study of Hunan Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 128-140.

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准则层	指标层	单位	权重	指标解释
抵御与吸收能力（B1）	农林牧渔业生产总值（C1）	亿元	0.086 2	反映乡村经济规模，规模越大，抵抗、吸收风险能力越强
	农村居民人均可支配收入（C2）	万元	0.099 7	反映农民应对风险的能力
	已建堤防长度（C3）	km	0.078 6	反映乡村抵抗自然风险的能力
	每万人村委会数量（C4）	个	0.067 3	反映村级组织管理能力
恢复与适应能力（B2）	乡村从业人员增长率（C5）	%	0.093 0	反映乡村抵御危机的能力
	农村用电量增长率（C6）	%	0.079 2	反映乡村生产、生活恢复状况
	水土流失综合治理面积增长率（C7）	%	0.068 4	反映乡村生态环境治理能力
	农地产出率（C8）	万元/hm²	0.083 1	反映土地综合利用水平
	农业劳动生产率（C9）	元/人	0.098 3	反映农业生产、组织和管理水平
创新与转型能力（B3）	乡镇规模以上工业企业个数（C10）	个	0.097 2	企业规模越大，创新意识、创新能力越强
	非农产值与农业产值比（C11）	%	0.077 1	反映乡村产业结构状况
	单位面积农业机械动力（C12）	kw/hm²	0.071 9	反映农村科技进步水平

准则层	指标层	单位	权重	指标解释
抵御与吸收能力（B1）	农林牧渔业生产总值（C1）	亿元	0.086 2	反映乡村经济规模，规模越大，抵抗、吸收风险能力越强
	农村居民人均可支配收入（C2）	万元	0.099 7	反映农民应对风险的能力
	已建堤防长度（C3）	km	0.078 6	反映乡村抵抗自然风险的能力
	每万人村委会数量（C4）	个	0.067 3	反映村级组织管理能力
恢复与适应能力（B2）	乡村从业人员增长率（C5）	%	0.093 0	反映乡村抵御危机的能力
	农村用电量增长率（C6）	%	0.079 2	反映乡村生产、生活恢复状况
	水土流失综合治理面积增长率（C7）	%	0.068 4	反映乡村生态环境治理能力
	农地产出率（C8）	万元/hm²	0.083 1	反映土地综合利用水平
	农业劳动生产率（C9）	元/人	0.098 3	反映农业生产、组织和管理水平
创新与转型能力（B3）	乡镇规模以上工业企业个数（C10）	个	0.097 2	企业规模越大，创新意识、创新能力越强
	非农产值与农业产值比（C11）	%	0.077 1	反映乡村产业结构状况
	单位面积农业机械动力（C12）	kw/hm²	0.071 9	反映农村科技进步水平

分维度评价	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
抵御与吸收能力	0.212 4	0.398 2	0.422 5	0.491 6	0.660 9	0.792 4	0.783 3	0.805 6	0.884 8
恢复与适应能力	0.194 7	0.209 3	0.313 9	0.392 2	0.415 3	0.524 4	0.536 0	0.592 2	0.610 4
创新与转型能力	0.223 7	0.151 6	0.158 9	0.206 2	0.242 5	0.324 3	0.448 1	0.560 1	0.463 2

分维度评价	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
抵御与吸收能力	0.212 4	0.398 2	0.422 5	0.491 6	0.660 9	0.792 4	0.783 3	0.805 6	0.884 8
恢复与适应能力	0.194 7	0.209 3	0.313 9	0.392 2	0.415 3	0.524 4	0.536 0	0.592 2	0.610 4
创新与转型能力	0.223 7	0.151 6	0.158 9	0.206 2	0.242 5	0.324 3	0.448 1	0.560 1	0.463 2

驱动因素	具体指标	绝对关联度	相对关联度	综合关联度
自然条件与资源禀赋	平均海拔/m	0.602 6	0.685 3	0.687 2
自然条件与资源禀赋	人均耕地灌溉面积/hm²	0.568 4	0.675 9	0.608 6
基础设施水平	人均公路里程/km	0.594 3	0.861 0	0.756 2
经济发展水平	人均GDP/万元	0.885 7	0.937 5	0.910 4
社会状况	动力数量占人口比例/%	0.901 1	0.804 2	0.832 1
社会状况	人口密度/（人/km²）	0.886 3	0.821 4	0.805 3