长三角流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.11.20220375

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2017年流动人口动态监测数据，综合运用探索性空间数据分析、地理加权回归模型及系统聚类分析方法，探索长三角一体化地区流动人口居留意愿的空间分布格局，重点剖析居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征。研究发现：（1）长三角地区流动人口居留意愿总体水平不高，具有居留意愿的流动人口比例仅约37.91%，上海和合肥都市圈为居留意愿的两大高地；（2）受教育水平、流入地二产产值占比、流入地房价增长率、房价收入比对居留意愿整体产生显著提升作用，跨省流动、房租收入比、雇员身份对居留意愿整体表现为显著抑制作用，各指标的影响程度均具有明显的空间异质性；（3）长三角可划分为流动人口居留意愿的四大影响区，分别为皖中皖北经济及流动特征主导区、苏中苏北住房因素主导区、上海及苏南多因素复杂作用区和浙江及皖南人力资本因素主导区。最后，针对长三角不同地区流动人口居留意愿影响因素的异质性特征，从管理制度、公共服务、就业与住房保障等方面提出差异化的流动人口服务与管理建议。

关键词: 流动人口居留意愿, 空间分异, 地理加权回归, 长三角地区

Abstract:

The Yangtze River Delta is the region with the most active population flow in my country. Floating population's settlement intention determines the process of citizenization and the quality of new urbanization. Based on the data from the 2017 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this study used the exploratory spatial data analysis, geographically weighted regression model, and systematic cluster analysis to examine the spatial pattern of the floating population's settlement intention and the spatial variation of the factors influencing such intention in ??the Yangtze River Delta. The following results were obtained: (1) The overall settlement intention of the floating population in the Yangtze River Delta is not high, And the proportion of floating population with settlement intention is about 37.91%; Shanghai and Hefei metropolitan areas are the two highlands suitable for settlement intention. (2) The educational level, proportion of the output value of secondary industry in the inflow area, housing price growth rate, and price-to-income ratio in the inflow area have a significant positive effect on the settlement intention of floating population; cross-provincial mobility, rent-to-income ratio, and employee status exert an inhibitory impact on such an intention. The influence degree of each index have obvious spatial heterogeneity. (3) The Yangtze River Delta is divided into four major influencing zones: floating population's settlement intention in the central and northern parts of Anhui are significantly affected by economic factors and flow characteristics; the central and northern parts of Jiangsu are dominated by ??housing factors; in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu, this intention is mainly influenced by multiple factors; finally, Zhejiang and southern Anhui are dominated by the factors of human capital. Finally, according to the heterogeneous characteristics of the factors affecting the floating population's settlement intention in different regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the paper puts forward differentiated suggestions on floating population services and management from the aspects of management system, public services, employment and housing security.

Key words: floating population's settlement intention, spatial differentiation, GWR, the Yangtze River Delta

蔡世珍, 徐旳, 刘春卉. 长三角流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(11): 106-119.

Shizhen CAI, Di XU, Chunhui LIU. Research on spatial difference of factors influencing floating population's settlement intention in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(11): 106-119.

图/表 11

参考文献 37

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变量类型		变量名称	变量描述及赋值
流动人口内部因素	个人特征	年龄	流动人口平均年龄/岁
	个人特征	受教育程度	高学历（大专及以上学历）流动人口占比/%
	家庭特征	婚姻状况	在婚流动人口占比/%
	家庭特征	本地家庭规模	流动人口在流入地的家庭同住人口数/人
	流动特征	流动范围	跨省流动人口占比/%
	经济特征	房价收入比	当年房价每平方米的均价与流动人口家庭月收入的比值
	经济特征	房租收入比	流动人口家庭在流入城市的月居住支出与家庭月收入的比值
	社会特征	就业身份	就业身份为雇员的流动人口占比/%
	社会特征	户口性质	非农业户口的流动人口占比/%
流入城市外部因素	经济特征	经济水平	流入地年GDP增长率/%
	经济特征	产业结构	第二产业产值占GDP的比重/%
	社会特征	就业环境	在岗职工平均失业率/%
		房价增长率	2013—2017年房价增长率/%
		城市环境	PM2.5年平均浓度/（微克/立方米）
		教育水平	每万人均小学教师数/（人/万人）
		医疗水平	每万人均医院床位数/（张/万人）

变量类型		变量名称	变量描述及赋值
流动人口内部因素	个人特征	年龄	流动人口平均年龄/岁
	个人特征	受教育程度	高学历（大专及以上学历）流动人口占比/%
	家庭特征	婚姻状况	在婚流动人口占比/%
	家庭特征	本地家庭规模	流动人口在流入地的家庭同住人口数/人
	流动特征	流动范围	跨省流动人口占比/%
	经济特征	房价收入比	当年房价每平方米的均价与流动人口家庭月收入的比值
	经济特征	房租收入比	流动人口家庭在流入城市的月居住支出与家庭月收入的比值
	社会特征	就业身份	就业身份为雇员的流动人口占比/%
	社会特征	户口性质	非农业户口的流动人口占比/%
流入城市外部因素	经济特征	经济水平	流入地年GDP增长率/%
	经济特征	产业结构	第二产业产值占GDP的比重/%
	社会特征	就业环境	在岗职工平均失业率/%
		房价增长率	2013—2017年房价增长率/%
		城市环境	PM2.5年平均浓度/（微克/立方米）
		教育水平	每万人均小学教师数/（人/万人）
		医疗水平	每万人均医院床位数/（张/万人）

变量	系数	标准误差	T统计量	稳健概率	VIF	影响效应
高学历流动人口占比	0.397	0.110	3.604	0.024^**	1.782	+
跨省流动人口占比	-0.590	0.136	-4.328	0.000^***	2.734	-
房租收入比	-0.492	0.127	1.882	0.047^**	2.382	-
房价收入比	0.240	0.137	-3.606	0.011^**	2.739	+
雇员流动人口占比	-0.392	0.127	-3.085	0.004^***	2.369	-
二产产值占比	0.178	0.099	1.803	0.040^**	1.437	+
房价平均增长率	0.407	0.120	3.378	0.000^***	2.132	+
常数项	0.000	0.081	0.000	1.000	—
R²	0.776
校正R²	0.728
AICc	77.896
Koenker(BP)统计量	16.814^**

变量	系数	标准误差	T统计量	稳健概率	VIF	影响效应
高学历流动人口占比	0.397	0.110	3.604	0.024^**	1.782	+
跨省流动人口占比	-0.590	0.136	-4.328	0.000^***	2.734	-
房租收入比	-0.492	0.127	1.882	0.047^**	2.382	-
房价收入比	0.240	0.137	-3.606	0.011^**	2.739	+
雇员流动人口占比	-0.392	0.127	-3.085	0.004^***	2.369	-
二产产值占比	0.178	0.099	1.803	0.040^**	1.437	+
房价平均增长率	0.407	0.120	3.378	0.000^***	2.132	+
常数项	0.000	0.081	0.000	1.000	—
R²	0.776
校正R²	0.728
AICc	77.896
Koenker(BP)统计量	16.814^**

变量	最小值	下四分位数	中位数	上四分位数	最大值	平均值	标准差
高学历流动人口占比	0.119	0.224	0.371	0.475	0.586	0.351	0.141
跨省流动人口占比	-0.603	-0.560	-0.397	-0.235	0.002	-0.378	0.184
房租收入比	-0.577	-0.532	-0.142	-0.043	0.012	-0.256	0.232
房价收入比	-0.209	0.030	0.149	0.217	0.284	0.117	0.121
雇员流动人口占比	-0.599	-0.491	-0.456	-0.374	-0.317	-0.443	0.073
二产产值占比	0.116	0.150	0.174	0.207	0.235	0.177	0.034
房价平均增长率	0.313	0.360	0.393	0.414	0.611	0.404	0.060
常数项	-0.111	-0.054	0.029	0.112	0.154	0.031	0.080
R²	0.905
校正R²	0.832
AICc	74.635