长三角老年家庭空巢水平的空间特征及影响机制

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230531

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着长三角人口老龄化进入深化阶段，老年家庭空巢问题日益严峻，对地区的人口、家庭和社会经济稳定发展带来重大挑战。基于2000—2020年长三角人口普查的老年家庭户数据测算，对老年家庭空巢水平及空间特征进行刻画，并采用结构方程模型（SEM）定量探讨空巢水平的空间特征的影响机制。研究得出：①整体空巢、偶居空巢和独居空巢水平总体上随时间递增，但空间格局上差异显著。整体空巢水平在空间上大致呈现由南高北低向南北高、中间低转换的特点，独居空巢水平形成南高北低到低值团块聚集转换的特点，偶居空巢水平则由中间低两端高向全域均高转变。②偶居空巢随时间发展对空巢影响程度更高，但地区效应迥异，上海市与江苏省一直以偶居空巢为主，浙江以独居空巢为主，安徽则由偶居空巢向独居空巢为主转变。③老年家庭空巢水平影响因素具有内生和外生的双层维度。内生变量中老龄化是关键因素，外生变量中经济通过老龄化传导产生的中介效应最大。因而，长三角亟须健全养老一体化的机制框架，加强多边多样多态养老模式的合作与共享，以实现“健康长三角”的政策目标，缓解老年家庭空巢问题所带来的社会经济危机。

关键词: 老年家庭空巢水平, 空间特征, 结构方程模型, 长三角

Abstract:

As population aging intensifies in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD), the issue of empty-nest elderly households has become increasingly prominent, presenting significant challenges to regional demographic development, family structures, and socioeconomic stability. Based on census data of elderly households in the YRD from 2000 to 2020, we quantified empty-nest prevalence and map its spatial distribution, then applyed structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify the drivers of the spatial distribution of empty-nest. The study concludes that:① All three empty-nest types (overall, solitary, and couple) showed temporal increases but distinct spatial distributions. The spatial distribution of overall empty-nest prevalence has transitioned from a latitudinal gradient (higher in south) to a bimodal distribution (peaks in north and south, trough in center). The solitary empty-nest elderly households show a transition from high levels in the north and south to clusters of low values in the middle. The couple empty-nest elderly households have shifted from a central-low/peripheral-high spatial pattern to uniformly elevated levels across the entire region. ② The couple empty-nest elderly households have had a greater impact on empty nests over time, but the regional effects have varied widely, with Shanghai and Jiangsu always dominated by couple elderly households, Anhui shifted from couple elderly households to solitary elderly households. ③ The factors influencing the level of empty nests in elderly households can be categorized into two dimensions: endogenous and exogenous. Among the endogenous variables, population aging emerges as the pivotal factor, while among the exogenous variables, economic development exerts the strongest mediated effect through aging. Therefore, YRD urgently needs to strengthen the institutional framework for integrating elderly care services, enhancing multilateral, diversified, and multi-modal cooperation and resource sharing. This will facilitate the realization of the "Healthy Yangtze River Delta" policy objective and mitigate the socioeconomic challenges posed by the empty-nest elderly household phenomenon.

Key words: empty-nest level of elderly households, spatial characteristics, structural equation modeling, Yangtze River Delta

应奎, 邝曜华, 丁金宏, 李俊飞. 长三角老年家庭空巢水平的空间特征及影响机制[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(4): 180-192.

Kui YING, Yaohua KUANG, Jinhong DING, Junfei LI. Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing mechanism of empty-nest elderly households in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(4): 180-192.

图/表 7

图1 老年家庭空巢水平分析框架

Fig.1 Framework for the analysis of empty-nest level in elderly households

图2 2000、2010和2020年老年家庭空巢水平空间格局

Fig.2 Spatial pattern of empty-nests level in elderly households in 2000， 2010 and 2020

图3 2000、2010和2020年独居老年家庭空巢水平空间格局

Fig.3 Spatial pattern of solitary empty-nest elderly household in 2000， 2010 and 2020

图4 2000、2010和2020年偶居老年家庭空巢水平空间格局

Fig.4 Spatial pattern of couple empty-nest levels in elderly households in 2000， 2010 and 2020

图5 2000、2010和2020年老年家庭空巢主要类型的空间格局

Fig.5 Spatial pattern of the main types of empty nest elderly households in 2000， 2010 and 2020

图6 长三角老年家庭空巢水平的影响机制和传导路径

Fig.6 Transmission path and the influencing mechanism of empty nests in elderly households in the Yangtze River Delta

表1 老年家庭空巢水平影响因素的直接效应、间接效应、总体效应和中介效应

Tab.1 Direct, indirect, total and mediating effects of factors influencing the level of empty nests in elderly households

指标	效应	出生率	死亡率	迁移强度	老龄化	空巢化
出生率	总体	—	—	—	—	0.218^**
死亡率	总体	—	—	—	—	-0.059
迁移强度	总体	—	—	—	—	-0.002
老龄化	总体	—	—	—	—	0.481^***
经济	直接	—	0.270^*	0.327^**	0.598^***	—
	间接	—	—	—	—	0.271^***
	总体	—	0.270^*	0.327^**	0.598^***	0.271^***
	中介	—	-0.016	-0.001	0.288^***	0.288^***
教育	直接	0.177^**	—	—	-0.182^***	—
	间接	—	—	—	—	-0.049^*
	总体	0.177^**	—	—	-0.182^***	-0.049^*
	中介	0.039^**	—	—	-0.088^***	-0.049^*
医疗	直接	-0.141	—	-0.248^***	0.321^***	—
	间接	—	—	—	—	0.124^**
	总体	-0.141	—	-0.248^***	0.321^***	0.124^**
	中介	-0.031	—	—	0.154^***	0.154^***
城镇化	直接	-0.572^***	-0.408^**	0.632^***	—	0.467^***
	间接	—	—	—	—	-0.102
	总体	-0.572^***	-0.408^**	0.632^***	—	0.363
	中介	-0.125^***	0.001	0.024	—	-0.125^***

参考文献 27

1	陶涛, 金光照, 郭亚隆. 中国老年家庭空巢化态势与空巢老年群体基本特征. 人口研究, 2023, 47(1): 58-71.
	TAO T, JIN G, GUO Y. Empty-nest elderly households in China: Trends and patterns. Population Research, 2023, 47(1): 58-71.
2	石燕. 以家庭周期理论为基础的"空巢家庭". 西北人口, 2008(5): 124-128.
	SHI Y. Define "empty nest family". Northwest Population Journal, 2008(5): 124-128.
3	陈卫, 段媛媛. 中国老年人的空巢时间有多长?. 人口研究, 2017, 41(5): 3-15.
	CHEN W, DUAN Y. Empty-nest life expectancy of the Chinese elderly: A multi-state life table analysis . Population Research, 2017, 41(5): 3-15.
4	张翼. 中国家庭的小型化、核心化与老年空巢化. 中国特色社会主义研究, 2012(6): 87-94.
	ZHANG Y. Miniaturization, nuclearization and empty nesting in old age of Chinese families. Studies on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, 2012(6): 87-94.
5	XIE L, ZHANG J, PENG F, et al. Prevalence and related influencing factors of depressive symptoms for empty-nest elderly living in the rural area of Yongzhou, China. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 2010, 50(1): 24-29.
6	朱晓, 范文婷. 中国老年人收入贫困状况及其影响因素研究——基于2014年中国老年社会追踪调查. 北京社会科学, 2017(1): 90-99.
	ZHU X, FAN W. Income poverty of Chinese elderly and influencing factors:Based on 2014 CLASS. Social Sciences of Beijing, 2017(1): 90-99.
7	TANG D, LIN Z, CHEN F. Moving beyond living arrangements: the role of family and friendship ties in promoting mental health for urban and rural older adults in China. Aging & Mental Health, 2020, 24(9): 1523-1532.
8	TAKAGI D, KONDO K, KONDO N, et al. Social disorganization/social fragmentation and risk of depression among older people in Japan: Multilevel investigation of indices of social distance. Social Science & Medicine, 2013, 83: 81-89.
9	郑雄飞, 吴振其. 孝而难养与守望相助:农村空巢老人互助养老问题研究. 内蒙古社会科学, 2022, 43(2): 147-154.
	ZHENG X, WU Z. Filial but cannot and care each other: A study on the problems of Mutual-support for the empty nest elderly in rural areas . Inner Mongolia Social Science, 2022, 43(2): 147-154.
10	王伟进. 互助养老的模式类型与现实困境. 行政管理改革, 2015(10): 63-68.
	WANG W. Types of models and realistic dilemmas of mutual elderly care. Administration Reform, 2015(10): 63-68.
11	胡湛, 彭希哲. 中国当代家庭户变动的趋势分析——基于人口普查数据的考察. 社会学研究, 2014, 29(3): 145-166.
	HU Z, PENG X. Household changes in contemporary China: An analysis based on census data . Sociological Studies, 2014, 29(3): 145-166.
12	张翼. 中国老年人口的家庭居住、健康与照料安排——第六次人口普查数据分析. 江苏社会科学, 2013(1): 57-65.
	ZHANG Y. Household residence, health and care arrangements of China's elderly population-Analysis of the Sixth population census data. Jiangsu Social Science, 2013(1): 57-65.
13	张明媚. 健康状况、空巢原因与农村空巢老人健康服务需求——基于CFPS 2018数据的实证分析. 辽宁工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 25(2): 31-35.
	ZHANG M. Health status, reasons for Empty Nest and health service demand of rural empty nest elderly - An empirical analysis based on CFPS 2018 data. Journal of Liaoning University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2023, 25(2): 31-35.
14	宁艳, 王高翔, 殷召雪, 等. 中国空巢老人机构养老意愿及其倾向、使能和需求影响因素分析. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(10): 1237-1240.
	NING Y, WANG G, YIN Z, et al. Predisposing, enabling and demand factors of preference for institution-based care among Chinese elderly empty-nesters. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(10): 1237-1240.
15	宋健. 中国家庭新形态 "离巢"青年与"空巢"父母. 人民论坛, 2019(28): 66-68.
	SONG J. New forms of Chinese Families: Leaving the nest youth and empty nest parents. People's Tribune, 2019(28): 66-68.
16	肖汉仕. 我国家庭空巢现象的成因及发展趋势. 人口研究, 1995(5): 13-16.
	XIAO H. The cause and development trend of empty nest phenomenon in Chinese families. Population Research, 1995(5): 13-16.
17	CHOU K, HO A, CHI I. Living alone and depression in Chinese older adults. Aging & Mental Health, 2006, 10(6): 583-591.
18	陈雯, 孙伟, 刘崇刚, 等. 长三角区域一体化与高质量发展. 经济地理, 2021, 41(10): 127-134.
	CHEN W, SUN W, Liu C, et al. Regional integration and high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta Region. Economic Geography, 2021, 41(10): 127-134.
19	古恒宇, 劳昕, 温锋华, 等. 2000—2020年中国省际人口迁移格局的演化特征及影响因素. 地理学报, 2022, 77(12): 3041-3054.
	GU H, LAO X, WEN F, et al. Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China between 2000 and 2020 . Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(12): 3041-3054.
20	解韬, 李昀东, 张晶. 长三角、珠三角地区人口老龄化时空变迁比较研究. 人口与发展, 2021, 27(4): 111-120.
	XIE T, LI Y, ZHANG J. A comparative study on spatiotemporal changes of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta . Population and Development, 2021, 27(4): 111-120.
21	吴媛媛, 宋玉祥, 于婷婷. 东北地区人口老龄化空间格局演变及影响因素研究. 长春:东北师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 53(3): 139-146.
	WU Y, SONG Y, YU T. Spatial pattern evolution and influence factors of population aging in Northeast China . Changchun: Journal of Northeast Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 53(3): 139-146.
22	张伟丽, 晏晶晶, 聂桂博. 中国城市人口流动格局演变及影响因素分析. 中国人口科学, 2021(2): 76-87.
	ZHANG W, YAN J, NIE G. Evolution of the pattern of China's urban population flows and its proximate determinants. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2021(2): 76-87.
23	吴帆, 陈玲. 当代中国年轻人低生育意愿背后的文化机制及其政策意涵. 公共行政评论, 2022, 15(5): 49-65.
	WU F, CHEN L. Cultural mechanisms and policy implications behind young people's low fertility intention in contemporary China. Journal of Public Administration, 2022, 15(5): 49-65.
24	梅林, 郭艳花, 陈妍. 吉林省人口老龄化时空分异特征及成因. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(3): 352-362.
	MEI L, GUO Y, CHEN Y. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin Province . Progress in Geography, 2018, 37(3): 352-362.
25	敖荣军, 常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
	AO R, CHANG L. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the structural equation model . Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
26	张文佳, 柴彦威. 基于家庭的城市居民出行需求理论与验证模型. 地理学报, 2008, 63(12): 1246-1256.
	ZHANG W, CHAI Y. Theories and confirmed model of urban resident's travel demand: Considering intra-household interaction. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(12): 1246-1256.
27	杨涵墨. 中国人口老龄化新趋势及老年人口新特征. 人口研究, 2022, 46(5): 104-116.
	YANG H. Dynamic trend of China's population ageing and new characteristics of the elderly . Population Research, 2022, 46(5): 104-116.

[1]	陈绍军, 余丹阳. 长三角城市群城镇化进程中人地关系的时空耦合特征及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 114-127.
[2]	甄延临, 张衔春, 周子航, 王诗逸. 长三角空间一体化的多元发展路径与驱动机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 128-140.
[3]	金飞, 徐长乐. 数字经济对区域一体化的影响及其机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(7): 128-138.
[4]	王婷, 李禕, 周浩楠. 长三角地区跨界共建园：时空特征、城市偏好与影响机制[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 102-115.
[5]	康江江, 宁越敏. 长三角地区主导产业专业化集聚演变与影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 116-127.
[6]	甄延临, 郭文超, 周子航. 新区域主义背景下的城市营销、品牌流动与跨界治理[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 150-162.
[7]	陈鑫, 周加贝, 廖远涛, 王少剑. 长三角地区碳排放-城市高质量发展水平耦合协调演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 103-115.
[8]	李培庆, 赵新正, 姜永青, 郁星, 张得康. 长三角多尺度城市网络联系特征及其对城市高质量发展的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 147-160.
[9]	王盈, 应婉云, 罗小龙. 欧盟跨界区域发展的历程、制度特征与启示[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 56-69.
[10]	李文, 李德升, 胡浩, 胡森林. 长三角地区养老产业发展水平格局及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 123-135.
[11]	殷为华, 陈雨婷. 长三角文化创意产业竞争力及空间格局演化研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(12): 107-118.
[12]	蔡世珍, 徐旳, 刘春卉. 长三角流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(11): 106-119.
[13]	焦柳丹, 王驴文, 张羽, 吴雅. 基于多木桶模型的长三角城市群韧性水平评估研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(1): 96-106.
[14]	陶杰, 曹卫东, 吴娟. 长三角民营上市企业时空发展特征与驱动因素效应分异研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 120-132.
[15]	陈静, 黄丽. 长三角城市群公众环境意识影响因素的空间异质性研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(8): 139-151.