中国与阿拉伯国家贸易格局演变及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.10.20240780

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

贸易合作是百年未有之大变局下中阿战略伙伴关系持续深化的“压舱石”。文章基于UN Comtrade数据库，运用HHI指数、拓扑熵和地理探测器，分析了2007—2022年中国与阿拉伯国家贸易格局的演变及其影响因素。研究发现：①中阿贸易展现出持续深化与强韧性的特点，历经波动后呈现复苏增长态势。②贸易空间布局呈现“北高南低、东高西低”的特点，且东西向失衡明显。此外，阿联酋与沙特作为领头羊引领中阿贸易增长，阿曼、科威特等新兴力量逐渐崛起，显示出贸易伙伴选择的集中化与多元化并存态势。③中国对阿出口结构向中高端转型，进口仍以能源为主，但能源合作正经历结构性变革，预示双方贸易质量与合作深度的双重提升。④中国对海合会出口商品类别波动，进口则保持稳定且来源多样化，彰显了贸易流的灵活适应性。⑤经济环境、资源禀赋、基础设施条件和技术创新水平是影响中阿贸易的关键因素，且双因子的交互作用解释力优于单因子。然而，随着贸易深化，双因子交互解释力逐渐减弱，反映了中阿贸易环境在不断适应和稳定中发展，双方的合作基础日益坚实。

关键词: 中国, 阿拉伯国家, 海合会国家, 贸易格局, 商品流

Abstract:

Trade cooperation serves as the "ballast stone" for the continuous deepening of the China-Arab strategic partnership amidst the profound changes unseen in a century. Based on the UN Comtrade database, this article employs the HHI index, topological entropy, and the Geodetector to analyze the evolution of trade patterns and influencing factors between China and Arab countries from 2007 to 2022. The findings are as follows: ① China-Arab trade exhibits characteristics of sustained deepening and resilience, showing a trend of recovery and growth after fluctuations. ② The spatial distribution of trade features "higher in the north than in the south, and higher in the east than in the west," with a notable imbalance between east and west. Furthermore, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia lead the growth in China-Arab trade, while emerging forces such as Oman and Kuwait gradually rise, indicating a coexistence of concentration and diversification in trade partner selection. ③ China's export structure to Arab countries is transitioning towards mid-to-high-end products, while imports are still dominated by energy, albeit energy cooperation is undergoing structural changes, signaling a dual enhancement in the quality of bilateral trade and the depth of cooperation. ④ China's exports to the GCC show category fluctuations, while imports remain stable with diversified sources, highlighting the flexible adaptability of trade flows. ⑤ Economic environment, resource endowments, infrastructure conditions, and technological innovation levels are key factors influencing China-Arab trade, and the explanatory power of dual-factor interactions is superior to that of single factors. However, as trade deepens, the explanatory power of the interaction between the two factors gradually weakens, reflecting the continuous adaptation and stabilization of the China-Arab trade environment and the increasingly solid foundation of bilateral cooperation.

Key words: China, Arab countries, GCC, trade pattern, commodity flows

杨韶艳, 温柔. 中国与阿拉伯国家贸易格局演变及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(10): 60-75.

Shaoyan YANG, Rou WEN. Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of trade patterns between China and Arab Countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(10): 60-75.

图/表 11

表1 交互作用类型

Tab.1 Types of interaction

类型	交互作用
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M i n (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	非线性减弱
$M i n (q (X 1), q (X 2)) < q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M a x (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	单因子非线性减弱
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > M a x (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	双因子增强
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) = q (X 1) + q (X 2)$	独立
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > q (X 1) + q (X 2)$	非线性增强

表1 交互作用类型

Tab.1 Types of interaction

类型	交互作用
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M i n (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	非线性减弱
$M i n (q (X 1), q (X 2)) < q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M a x (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	单因子非线性减弱
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > M a x (q (X 1), q (X 2))$	双因子增强
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) = q (X 1) + q (X 2)$	独立
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > q (X 1) + q (X 2)$	非线性增强

图1 2007—2022年中国与阿拉伯国家贸易发展态势

Fig.1 Development of China's trade with Arab countries， 2007-2022

表2 2007、2011、2015、2019和2022年中国与阿拉伯国家的贸易额 (亿美元)

Tab.2 Trade volumn between China and Arab countries in 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022

国家	2007年	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年	国家	2007年	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年
沙特	254.00	643.17	516.34	780.72	1 160.36	利比亚	24.18	27.84	28.44	72.68	53.07
阿联酋	201.17	351.19	485.34	487.5	992.69	也门	27.43	42.4	23.28	36.86	34.31
伊拉克	14.91	142.68	205.84	333.89	533.74	苏丹	—	—	31.23	30.33	29.11
阿曼	72.71	158.75	171.64	226.71	404.45	黎巴嫩	7.27	14.84	23.03	17.06	25.8
科威特	36.37	113.04	112.7	172.84	314.8	突尼斯	5.22	13.32	14.21	15.73	21.35
卡塔尔	12.11	58.93	68.9	111.23	265.47	毛里塔尼亚	7.08	19.03	15.19	19.54	21.28
埃及	47.08	88.02	128.76	132.01	181.9	巴林	4.88	12.06	11.23	16.79	20.23
阿尔及利亚	39.03	64.33	83.51	80.83	74.2	索马里	0.28	0.97	3.23	7.5	10.54
摩洛哥	26.07	35.18	34.19	46.68	66.51	叙利亚	19	24.46	10.26	13.15	4.27
约旦	11.95	27.69	37.12	41.12	64.51

图2 2007—2022年中国与海合会国家的贸易结构

Fig.2 Structure of China's trade with GCC countries， 2007-2022

图3 2007—2022年中国与阿拉伯国家的贸易集中度

Fig.3 Concentration of China's trade with Arab countries， 2007-2022

图4 2007—2022年中国对阿拉伯国家进出口商品结构

Fig.4 Commodity structure of China's imports and exports to Arab countries， 2007-2022

表3 阿拉伯国家光伏净发电量 (太瓦时)

Tab.3 Net photovoltaic power generation in Arab countries

国家	2017年	2019年	2021年	国家	2017年	2019年	2021年
阿尔及利亚	0.57	0.68	0.81	巴勒斯坦	0.05	0.12	0.20
巴林	0.01	0.01	0.01	卡塔尔	0.01	0.01	0.01
埃及	0.60	4.43	4.80	沙特	0.07	0.32	0.95
伊拉克	0.06	0.38	0.08	索马里	0.01	0.01	0.03
约旦	0.91	2.06	3.50	苏丹	0.02	0.02	0.03
科威特	0.01	0.02	0.02	突尼斯	0.13	0.25	0.41
黎巴嫩	0.06	0.11	0.12	阿联酋	0.74	3.79	6.69
利比亚	0.01	0.01	0.01	也门	0.19	0.48	0.60
毛里塔尼亚	0.06	0.14	0.14	阿拉伯国家	3.96	14.44	20.68
摩洛哥	0.45	1.58	1.82	世界	445.05	701.03	1 036.24
阿曼	0.02	0.02	0.16

图5 2007—2022年中国对海合会国家重点出口/进口商品贸易流向注：桑基图左侧代码为商品的HS二位码，线条的宽度表征额度的大小。

Fig.5 Trade flow of China's key export/import commodities to GCC countries， 2007-2022

表4 变量选取及数据来源说明

Tab.4 Selection of variables and description of data sources

影响因素	代码	指标说明	指标数据选取	数据来源
政治驱动	X₁	政治稳定性	政治稳定性指数	WGI 数据库
经济驱动	X₂	经济规模	GDP总值	世界银行
	X₃	开放程度	阿拉伯国家吸收对外直接投资
	X₄	市场规模	人均GDP
	X₅	市场规模	人口规模
资源驱动	X₆	自然资源	国土面积
基础设施驱动	X₇	班轮效率	班轮运输指数
基础设施驱动	X₈	港口效率	货柜码头吞吐量
创新驱动	X₉	创新水平	全球创新指数	世界知识产权组织

表5 中国与阿拉伯国家进出口贸易影响因子探测结果

Tab.5 Detection results of influencing factors on import and export trade between China and Arab Countries

类型	指标	2007年		2011年		2015年		2019年		2022年
类型	指标	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序
政治驱动	X₁	0.54	9	0.25	9	0.40	8	0.40	9	0.27	9
经济驱动	X₂	0.97^***	5	0.98^***	4	0.94^***	3	0.99 ^***	1	0.96^***	3
	X₃	0.98^***	4	0.97^***	5	0.99^***	1	0.96^***	5	0.96^***	2
	X₄	0.74^*	8	0.99^***	2	0.93^***	4	0.99^***	2	0.53^*	7
	X₅	0.75^**	7	0.90^***	6	0.39	9	0.64	8	0.59	5
资源驱动	X₆	0.99^***	1	0.87^***	7	0.53	7	0.85^***	7	0.65	4
基础设施驱动	X₇	0.99^***	3	0.71	8	0.94^***	2	0.99^***	3	0.44 ^***	8
基础设施驱动	X₈	0.99^***	2	0.98^***	3	0.92^***	5	0.98^***	4	0.97^*	1
技术创新驱动	X₉	0.83^**	6	0.99^***	1	0.74^*	6	0.86^***	6	0.59^***	6

图6 中国与阿拉伯国家进出口贸易影响因子交互探测结果

Fig.6 Results of interaction detection of impact factors of trade between China and Arab Countries

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