中国医药产品对外贸易空间结构演化与影响因素

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.10.20230064

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

医药产品是人类生命健康的重要保障和未来经济发展的重要引擎。在国际产业链重塑和新冠病毒感染等突发事件的交织影响下，医药产品发展和对外贸易合作面临愈加严重的挑战。通过中国医药产品对外贸易数据，利用贸易互补指数和面板回归模型，研究2001—2021年中国医药产品对外贸易结构时空演化与影响因素。结果表明：对外贸易规模“起步低，增长快”，贸易逆差不断增大，抗生素最具有比较优势，激素类最具有比较劣势；在空间格局上，中国进口高度依赖于欧美发达国家和地区，出口向欧美稳步拓展的同时也向发展中国家（地区）不断辐散；在影响机制上，贸易国国内生产总值、创新投入和产出、老龄化与多维邻近性和中国医药产品贸易呈正相关，地区稳定程度与之呈负相关，外商直接投资影响不显著。最后从贸易市场的角度对中国医药产业发展提供相关建议。

关键词: 医药, 对外贸易, 产品结构, 时空演化, 影响因素

Abstract:

The development of pharmaceutical products and foreign trade cooperation are facing more and more serious challenges under the intertwined influence of emergencies such as the reshaping of the international value chain and COVID-19 infection. Based on the foreign trade data of Chinese pharmaceutical products, using the trade complementarity index and panel regression model, this paper studied the space evolution and influencing factors of the trade structure of Chinese pharmaceutical products from 2001 to 2021. The results show that the scale of foreign trade "starts low and grows fast", the trade deficit continues to increase, antibiotics have the most comparative advantages, and hormones have the most comparative disadvantages; In terms of spatial pattern, Chinese imports and exports are highly dependent on developed countries and regions in Europe and north America. Developing countries or regions also play a part in Chinese export. In terms of the impact mechanism, the gross domestic product, innovation input and output, aging and multi-dimensional proximity of trading countries are positively correlated with Chinese pharmaceutical product trade, and the degree of regional stability is negatively correlated with it. The impact of foreign direct investment is not significant. At the end of the article, the author provides relevant suggestions for the development of Chinese pharmaceutical industry from the perspective of trade market.

Key words: pharmaceutical products, foreign trade, product structure, space-time evolution, influencing factor

王煜群, 夏启繁. 中国医药产品对外贸易空间结构演化与影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(10): 71-82.

Yuqun WANG, Qifan XIA. The evolution and influencing factors of Chinese foreign trade structure of pharmaceutical products[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(10): 71-82.

图/表 6

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产品种类	HS商品编码
激素类	300331、300339、300431、300432、300439
抗生素	300310、300320、300410、300420
化学药物	300360、300390、300450、300460、300490
生物碱	300340、300341、300342、300343、300349，300440、300441、300442、300443、300449
疫苗和血液制品	300210、300211、300212、300213、300214、300215、300219、300220

产品种类	HS商品编码
激素类	300331、300339、300431、300432、300439
抗生素	300310、300320、300410、300420
化学药物	300360、300390、300450、300460、300490
生物碱	300340、300341、300342、300343、300349，300440、300441、300442、300443、300449
疫苗和血液制品	300210、300211、300212、300213、300214、300215、300219、300220

年份	激素类		抗生素		化学药物		生物碱		疫苗和血液制品		贸易差额
年份	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	贸易差额
2001	0.08	0.65	0.65	1.45	2.27	6.37	0.05	0.25	0.03	0.47	－6.11
2003	0.09	2.05	0.66	2.15	2.63	7.39	0.06	0.48	0.20	0.86	－9.29
2005	0.13	3.23	0.98	2.93	3.80	10.25	0.05	0.44	0.11	1.11	－12.88
2007	0.29	6.04	1.82	4.15	6.06	18.81	0.11	0.59	0.23	2.62	－23.70
2009	0.44	10.45	3.58	6.22	7.77	32.43	0.18	0.89	0.68	6.60	－43.94
2011	0.64	17.72	5.49	9.13	17.70	54.52	0.18	1.20	1.54	14.87	－71.89
2013	1.11	23.50	6.15	11.30	22.30	74.42	0.14	1.53	2.81	30.69	－108.93
2015	2.94	26.83	7.17	11.32	24.06	92.91	0.15	1.96	3.66	47.13	－142.17
2017	2.94	32.13	7.60	15.29	25.97	124.08	0.16	2.99	5.15	63.25	－195.94
2019	4.76	39.76	10.03	18.00	30.46	153.58	0.19	3.86	6.23	102.42	－265.94
2021	11.48	40.05	12.50	17.10	38.43	178.74	0.36	3.11	270.46	151.64	－57.41

年份	激素类		抗生素		化学药物		生物碱		疫苗和血液制品		贸易差额
年份	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	贸易差额
2001	0.08	0.65	0.65	1.45	2.27	6.37	0.05	0.25	0.03	0.47	－6.11
2003	0.09	2.05	0.66	2.15	2.63	7.39	0.06	0.48	0.20	0.86	－9.29
2005	0.13	3.23	0.98	2.93	3.80	10.25	0.05	0.44	0.11	1.11	－12.88
2007	0.29	6.04	1.82	4.15	6.06	18.81	0.11	0.59	0.23	2.62	－23.70
2009	0.44	10.45	3.58	6.22	7.77	32.43	0.18	0.89	0.68	6.60	－43.94
2011	0.64	17.72	5.49	9.13	17.70	54.52	0.18	1.20	1.54	14.87	－71.89
2013	1.11	23.50	6.15	11.30	22.30	74.42	0.14	1.53	2.81	30.69	－108.93
2015	2.94	26.83	7.17	11.32	24.06	92.91	0.15	1.96	3.66	47.13	－142.17
2017	2.94	32.13	7.60	15.29	25.97	124.08	0.16	2.99	5.15	63.25	－195.94
2019	4.76	39.76	10.03	18.00	30.46	153.58	0.19	3.86	6.23	102.42	－265.94
2021	11.48	40.05	12.50	17.10	38.43	178.74	0.36	3.11	270.46	151.64	－57.41

年份	激素类	抗生素	化学药物	生物碱	疫苗和血液制品
2001	0.31	2.43	1.04	1.00	0.09
2002	0.27	2.21	0.94	1.48	1.05
2003	0.28	2.72	0.98	1.29	0.55
2004	0.24	3.62	0.99	1.28	0.19
2005	0.30	3.51	1.05	0.85	0.16
2006	0.30	3.73	1.01	0.47	0.23
2007	0.43	4.19	0.94	1.23	0.27
2008	0.46	5.19	0.92	1.72	0.22
2009	0.44	5.62	0.90	1.53	0.30
2010	0.39	5.75	0.87	1.33	0.42
2011	0.32	4.27	1.06	0.60	0.29
2012	0.34	4.31	1.10	0.32	0.29
2013	0.37	4.13	1.10	0.49	0.37
2014	0.49	4.67	1.12	0.59	0.37
2015	0.91	4.57	1.05	0.26	0.38
2016	0.67	4.80	1.07	0.36	0.50
2017	0.91	4.99	1.14	0.40	0.37
2018	1.08	5.02	1.16	0.30	0.33
2019	1.25	5.53	1.14	0.43	0.33
2020	0.80	4.01	0.75	0.42	1.16
2021	0.48	1.48	0.25	0.16	1.89