珠三角区域经济韧性的空间演化及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.08.20220270

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

沿用知识基础理论工具，量化划分行业知识基础类型及其组合形态，从生产、消费、劳动力市场、对外贸易及创新5个维度构建“多维韧性变量代理法”指标体系，探究珠三角经济韧性的空间演化及异质性知识基础对区域经济韧性的影响。结果表明：①行业知识基础被划分为解析型、象征型、解析-综合型、综合-解析-象征型、综合-象征-解析型5种类型。②2005—2019年珠三角中部地区经济韧性明显上升，东、西部地区在波动中下降，经济韧性空间由中、东部“双核心”向中部“单核心”结构演变。③解析型知识基础专业化对经济韧性具有显著正效应，象征型和综合-象征-解析型知识基础专业化具有显著负效应，知识基础均衡化具有显著的正效应。④控制变量中研发投入对经济韧性的影响显著为正，经济规模显著为负。从知识生产这一创新源头理解与识别不同创新特质的城市经济韧性差异，可为基于知识特性的差异化区域韧性增强策略与可持续发展路径选择提供新的框架与思路。

关键词: 经济韧性, 知识基础, 空间演化, 影响因素, 珠江三角洲

Abstract:

This paper used the theoretical tool of knowledge bases, constructed the index system from five dimensions of production, consumption, labor market, foreign trade and innovation to explore the spatial evolution of economic resilience and the impacts of different knowledge bases on regional economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta. The results are as follows: ①Industrial knowledge bases are differentiated into five types: analytical knowledge base, symbolic knowledge base, analytical-synthetic knowledge base, synthetic-analytical-symbolic knowledge base, and synthetic-symbolic-analytical knowledge base. ②From 2005 to 2019, the regional economic resilience level of central cities increased noticeably, while that of the eastern and western cities decreased. As a whole, the spatial structure of economic resilience changes from the "double core" of the central and eastern regions to the "single core" of the central regions. ③The specialization of analytical knowledge base and proportional equalization of knowledge bases significantly improve regional economic resilience, while the specialization of symbolic knowledge base and synthetic-symbolic-analytical knowledge base go against the improvement of economic resilience. ④Research and development resources have significant positive effects on the improvement of economic resilience, while economic scale has negative effect. Through the innovative source of knowledge production, understanding and identifying the differences in economic resilience performance of cities with different innovative characteristics can provide a new framework and ideas for the differentiated strategy of enhancing regional resilience and path selection of sustainable development.

Key words: economic resilience, knowledge bases, spatial evolution, determinant factor, the Pearl River Delta

安琳, 夏丽丽, 张佳锃, 林剑铬. 珠三角区域经济韧性的空间演化及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(8): 132-147.

Lin AN, Lili XIA, Jiazeng ZHANG, Jiange LIN. The spatial evolution and determinants of regional economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta: An analytical perspective based on knowledge bases[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(8): 132-147.

图/表 8

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维度	层次		变量	指标
知识创造动态	知识投入	资金	研发投入强度	研发费用/利润总额
		人力	技术开发人员占比	技术开发员工数/总员工数
		研发机构	设有研发机构的企业数量占比	设有研发机构的企业数/行业总企业数
	知识产出	构成	发明授权占比	发明授权数/专利总数
			实用新型占比	实用新型数/专利总数
			外观设计占比	外观设计数/专利总数
		效率	发明授权产出效率	发明授权数/研发费用*
			实用新型产出效率	实用新型数/研发费用
			外观设计产出效率	外观设计数/研发费用
	知识流动	知识搜索	项均专利申请人数量	专利申请人数/专利总数
	知识流动	知识扩散	被引用专利数量占比	被引用专利数/专利总数
经济绩效	盈利规模		利润总额与企业数量比	利润总额/企业数量
经济绩效	盈利能力		总资产净利率	总资产净利率

维度	层次		变量	指标
知识创造动态	知识投入	资金	研发投入强度	研发费用/利润总额
		人力	技术开发人员占比	技术开发员工数/总员工数
		研发机构	设有研发机构的企业数量占比	设有研发机构的企业数/行业总企业数
	知识产出	构成	发明授权占比	发明授权数/专利总数
			实用新型占比	实用新型数/专利总数
			外观设计占比	外观设计数/专利总数
		效率	发明授权产出效率	发明授权数/研发费用*
			实用新型产出效率	实用新型数/研发费用
			外观设计产出效率	外观设计数/研发费用
	知识流动	知识搜索	项均专利申请人数量	专利申请人数/专利总数
	知识流动	知识扩散	被引用专利数量占比	被引用专利数/专利总数
经济绩效	盈利规模		利润总额与企业数量比	利润总额/企业数量
经济绩效	盈利能力		总资产净利率	总资产净利率

目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标解释	指标属性
经济韧性	生产韧性（0.206）	GDP（0.135）	国民经济水平	正
	生产韧性（0.206）	工业增加值（0.071）	经济活力水平	正
	消费韧性（0.104）	社会消费品零售总额（0.039）	整体消费水平	正
	消费韧性（0.104）	城镇居民人均消费支出（0.065）	人均消费水平	正
	劳动力市场韧性（0.407）	城镇登记失业人数（0.026）	就业变化情况	正
	劳动力市场韧性（0.407）	工业企业数（0.381）	企业存亡情况	正
	对外贸易韧性（0.038）	外商直接投资（0.020）	外商投资情况	正
	对外贸易韧性（0.038）	进出口总额（0.018）	对外贸易情况	正
	创新韧性（0.245）	专利授权量（0.105）	创新产出水平	正
		高新技术企业数（0.042）	创新企业数量	正
		新产品销售收入（0.098）	创新收入水平	正

目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标解释	指标属性
经济韧性	生产韧性（0.206）	GDP（0.135）	国民经济水平	正
	生产韧性（0.206）	工业增加值（0.071）	经济活力水平	正
	消费韧性（0.104）	社会消费品零售总额（0.039）	整体消费水平	正
	消费韧性（0.104）	城镇居民人均消费支出（0.065）	人均消费水平	正
	劳动力市场韧性（0.407）	城镇登记失业人数（0.026）	就业变化情况	正
	劳动力市场韧性（0.407）	工业企业数（0.381）	企业存亡情况	正
	对外贸易韧性（0.038）	外商直接投资（0.020）	外商投资情况	正
	对外贸易韧性（0.038）	进出口总额（0.018）	对外贸易情况	正
	创新韧性（0.245）	专利授权量（0.105）	创新产出水平	正
		高新技术企业数（0.042）	创新企业数量	正
		新产品销售收入（0.098）	创新收入水平	正

变量类型	变量名称	符号	观测数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
因变量	经济韧性	lnResi	135	－1.077	0.176	－1.728	－0.430
解释变量	解析型区位商	lnAna	135	－0.116	0.756	－1.817	1.438
	综合-象征-解析型区位商	lnSyn_sym_ana	135	－0.107	0.603	－2.226	0.823
	综合-解析-象征型区位商	lnSyn_ana_sym	135	－0.086	0.427	－1.359	0.567
	解析-综合型区位商	lnAna_syn	135	－0.343	0.707	－1.838	0.767
	象征型区位商	lnSym	135	－0.088	0.505	－1.127	0.910
	知识基础类型熵值	lnKbentr	135	－0.301	0.278	－1.175	0.131
控制变量	研发投入强度	lnRD	135	0.436	0.683	－1.561	1.595
	基础设施水平	lnInfra	135	2.703	0.375	1.599	3.999
	经济规模	lnGDP	135	17.340	0.981	15.320	19.410