非洲留学生空间流动网络变化特征研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.07.20230016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2000—2018年非洲留学生流动数据，利用社会网络分析和负二项回归模型，探讨非洲留学生空间流动网络变化特征及其影响机制，其结果认为：①非洲留学生空间流动始终呈现以非洲至欧洲的南北流动为主要路径，以非洲向东西其他大洲扩展为次要路径的“蝶状”空间分布格局。②非洲留学生空间流动网络结构变化呈现显著的规模扩大和相对集聚特征，非洲留学生流动数量显著增加的同时，不同国家间的非洲留学生流动规模存在等级分布式的差距。③非洲留学生空间流动网络始终呈现核心-边缘结构特征，且非洲留学生空间流动网络节点之间的联系日益密切，非洲留学生同时向核心、次核心节点流动的集聚特征愈发显著。④影响因素分析表明：语言邻近性和历史殖民联系对非洲留学生空间流动的选择影响最大，其次为东道国高校教育水平，而集聚效应、贸易联系和地理距离的影响较小，东道国高校学生数、GDP差值和人均GDP差值的影响则最弱。

关键词: 留学生, 人才流动, 空间流动网络, 影响机制, 非洲

Abstract:

Based on the data of international students' flow from 2000 to 2018, social network analysis and negative binomial regression model are used to analyses the change of spatial networks of African students' flow and its influencing mechanism. The results show that: ① The spatial flow of African international students always presents a "butterfly" spatial distribution pattern, with the north-south flow from Africa to Europe as the main path, and the expansion of Africa to other continents as the secondary path. ② The change of spatial flow network structure of African international students shows significant scale expansion and relative agglomeration. While the number of African international student increases significantly, the scale of international African student among different countries has a hierarchical distribution gap. ③ The nodes of spatial flow network of African international students always present a core-edge structure, and the spatial flow network is increasingly closely connected. The clustering characteristics of African international students flowing to core and sub-core nodes are becoming increasingly significant. ④ Analysis of influencing factors shows that language proximity and historical colonial have the greatest influence on the choice of African international students, followed by the level of education in universities. In addition, agglomeration effect, trade connection, and geographical distance have little influence, while the number of college students in host country, GDP difference and per capita GDP difference have the least influence.

Key words: international students, talent mobility, spatial flow network, influencing mechanism, Africa

胡晨晖, 姜海宁. 非洲留学生空间流动网络变化特征研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(7): 46-58.

Chenhui HU, Haining JIANG. Changes of spatial flow networks of African international students[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(7): 46-58.

图/表 7

图1 2000—2018年非洲留学生空间流动格局变化注：该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图（审图号：GS（2016）1665号）制作，底图无修改；图中蓝色部分为研究区域非洲。以下地图同。

Fig.1 Change of spatial flow patterns of African international students from 2000 to 2018

表1 2000—2018年非洲留学生空间流动网络复杂性特征变化

Tab.1 Change of complexity characteristics of spatial flow network of African international students from 2000 to 2018

变量	2000年	2006年	2012年	2018年
节点数	99	109	120	129
边数	1 134	1 403	1 911	2 554
网络密度	0.117	0.119	0.134	0.155
聚类系数	0.025	0.064	0.132	0.172
平均度中心性	11	13	16	20
平均加权度	1 604	2 283	2 783	4 358

图2 2000—2018年非洲留学生空间流动网络节点度中心性位序-规模分布变化

Fig.2 Change of degree centrality rank-size distribution of nodes in spatial flow network of African international students from 2000 to 2018

图3 2000—2018年非洲留学生空间流动网络节点加权度中心性位序-规模分布变化

Fig.3 Change of weighted degree centrality rank-size distribution of nodes in spatial flow network of African international students from 2000 to 2018

图4 2000—2018年非洲留学生空间流动网络结构变化

Fig.4 Change of spatial flow network structure of African international students from 2000 to 2018

表2 模型的解释变量与回归系数的预期符号

Tab.2 Explanatory variables of the model and expected symbol of regression coefficient

变量		变量定义	预期符号
历史影响	历史殖民联系	来源国有无东道国殖民历史	+
历史影响	语言邻近性	来源国与东道国语言是否相近	+
经贸联系	GDP差值	东道国与来源国GDP差值	+
	人均GDP差值	东道国与来源国人均GDP差值	+
	贸易联系	东道国与来源国间双边贸易额	+
教育水平	东道国高校教育水平	东道国世界500强高校数量	+
教育水平	东道国高校学生数	东道国高校在校学生数	+
地理邻近	地理距离	两国最重要城市或城市群加权之间的地理距离	－
地理邻近	集聚效应	2000年非洲留学生对应流量	+

表3 非洲留学生空间流动负二项回归模型分析结果

Tab.3 Results of negative binomial regression model of African international students’ spatial flow

变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
历史殖民联系	0.640 7^**
语言邻近性	0.995 9^***	0.970 8^***	1.102 5^***
GDP差值	2.07E-13^***	1.66E-13^***
人均GDP差值	－1.65E-05^***		－5.91E-06^***	－1.66E-05^***
贸易联系		0.000 5^***	0.000 6^***	0.000 5^***
东道国高校教育水平				0.034 0^***
东道国高校学生数			6.77E-08^***
地理距离		－0.000 1^***	－8.12E-05^***	－9.39E-05^***
集聚效应	0.001 4^***	0.001 6^***	0.001 6^***	0.002 1^***
C	4.524 4^***	4.559 8^***	4.497 6^***	5.075 7^***
样本量	2 507	2 507	2 507	2 507
显著性	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0
a	5.584 5^***	4.326 6^***	4.676 5^***	5.253 6^***
LR stat	8 850.52^***	7 829.02^***	8 179.85^***	8 653.13^***

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