目的国碳减排对中国光伏出口格局的影响机制研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.04.20241110

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

光伏产业是全球能源转型的重要支撑，其贸易格局深受各国碳减排政策影响。本文基于2009—2020年中国光伏出口数据，将目的国碳减排纳入分析框架，利用面板数据计量模型探究其对中国光伏出口格局的影响机制。研究发现：①中国光伏出口主要集中在东部省份，长三角地区为主要出口源地，占全国比重达68%；②目的国碳减排提升市场需求，促进其从中国进口光伏产品；③目的国碳减排对中国光伏出口的正向影响在《巴黎协定》生效后增强，在中美贸易战之后减弱；④目的国碳减排对产业集聚度高、政策支持力度强的省份的光伏产品出口的促进作用更大；⑤光伏产业高度集聚的目的国在推动碳减排过程时，对中国光伏依赖度较低；⑥设立碳交易市场或对中国光伏设置贸易壁垒的国家，其碳减排对进口中国光伏的促进作用更强。因此，在优化光伏产业和贸易政策时，需将目的国碳减排的影响纳入考量。

关键词: 光伏产业, 产业集聚, 政策激励, 贸易保护, 碳交易, 空间格局

Abstract:

As a driver of global energy transition, the photovoltaic (PV) industry's trade pattern is significantly influenced by carbon reduction policies across nations. Based on China's PV export data from 2009 to 2020, this study incorporates the carbon emission reduction of destination countries into the analytical framework and employs a panel data econometric model to explore its impact on China's PV export. The findings reveal that: ① Most China's PV exports deriving from coastal provinces, with the Yangtze River Delta region accounting for 68% of total exports; ② Carbon emission reduction in destination countries stimulate PV market demand, thereby increasing their imports of Chinese PV products; ③ The positive impact of carbon emission reduction on China's PV exports intensified after the Paris Agreement but weakened following the U.S.-China trade war; ④ Carbon emission reduction exert a stronger positive effect on PV exports from provinces with high levels of industrial agglomeration and strong policy support; ⑤ Destination countries with robust PV industrial agglomeration relying less on Chinese PV; ⑥ Countries that have established carbon trading markets or imposed trade barriers on Chinese PV products have increased their imports from China under the pressure of carbon reduction targets. Our research indicates that the impact of destination countries' carbon emission reduction should be incorporated into the optimization of PV industry and trade policies.

Key words: photovoltaic industry, industrial aggregation, policy incentive, trade protection, carbon emissions trading scheme, spatial pattern

管仲, 朱向东, 贺灿飞. 目的国碳减排对中国光伏出口格局的影响机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(4): 48-59.

Zhong GUAN, Xiangdong ZHU, Canfei HE. The impact of destination countries' carbon emission reduction on the spatial pattern of Chinese PV export[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(4): 48-59.

图/表 7

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变量类型	变量	含义	数据维度	数据源
被解释变量	PV_ijt	省份i在t年向国家j光伏出口额	省份-目的国-年份	中国海关贸易数据库
核心解释变量	CEI_jt	国家j在t年碳排放强度	目的国-年份	世界银行
中介变量	Solar_D_jt	国家j在t年光伏电力消费量	目的国-年份	能源研究所
调节变量	RCA_P_it	省份i在t年光伏产业集聚	省份-年份	中国海关贸易数据库
	Solar_P_it	省份i在t年光伏电力消费量	省份-年份	中国电力企业联合会
	RCA_D_jt	国家j在t年光伏出口显著性比较优势	目的国-年份	联合国贸易数据库
	Policy_i	省份i实施光伏政策激励强度	省份	北大法宝法律数据库
	TP_j	国家j是否对中国光伏实施贸易保护	目的国	全球贸易预警组织
	ETS_j	国家j是否建立碳交易市场	目的国	国际碳行动伙伴组织
控制变量	GDP_D_jt	国家j在t年GDP	目的国-年份	世界银行
	IND_D_jt	国家j在t年第二产业比重	目的国-年份	世界银行
	GDP_P_it	省份i在的t年GDP	省份-年份	中国国家统计局
	IND_P_it	省份i在t年第二产业比重	省份-年份	中国国家统计局
	Distance_j	国家j首都距离北京的距离	目的国	CEPII

变量类型	变量	含义	数据维度	数据源
被解释变量	PV_ijt	省份i在t年向国家j光伏出口额	省份-目的国-年份	中国海关贸易数据库
核心解释变量	CEI_jt	国家j在t年碳排放强度	目的国-年份	世界银行
中介变量	Solar_D_jt	国家j在t年光伏电力消费量	目的国-年份	能源研究所
调节变量	RCA_P_it	省份i在t年光伏产业集聚	省份-年份	中国海关贸易数据库
	Solar_P_it	省份i在t年光伏电力消费量	省份-年份	中国电力企业联合会
	RCA_D_jt	国家j在t年光伏出口显著性比较优势	目的国-年份	联合国贸易数据库
	Policy_i	省份i实施光伏政策激励强度	省份	北大法宝法律数据库
	TP_j	国家j是否对中国光伏实施贸易保护	目的国	全球贸易预警组织
	ETS_j	国家j是否建立碳交易市场	目的国	国际碳行动伙伴组织
控制变量	GDP_D_jt	国家j在t年GDP	目的国-年份	世界银行
	IND_D_jt	国家j在t年第二产业比重	目的国-年份	世界银行
	GDP_P_it	省份i在的t年GDP	省份-年份	中国国家统计局
	IND_P_it	省份i在t年第二产业比重	省份-年份	中国国家统计局
	Distance_j	国家j首都距离北京的距离	目的国	CEPII

变量	引力模型	中介效应检验			巴黎协定		中美贸易战
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Dep.Var.	Value	Value	Solar_D	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
CEI	-0.442^***	-0.944^***	-0.391^***	-0.823^***	-1.819^***	-2.554^***	-1.393^***	-0.803
CEI	(0.0724)	(0.235)	(0.0790)	(0.234)	(0.433)	(0.413)	(0.337)	(0.653)
Solar_D				0.311^***
Solar_D				(0.0268)
Distance	-1.458^***
Distance	(0.0823)
IND_P	-0.813^***	-4.457^***	-6.724^***	-2.367^***	8.205^***	-7.743^***	3.571^***	-4.326^***
IND_P	(0.173)	(0.471)	(0.158)	(0.502)	(1.143)	(0.863)	(0.779)	(1.079)
GDP_P	0.773^***	0.660^***	0.403^***	0.534^***	1.262^***	0.714^***	0.971^***	0.247
GDP_P	(0.0190)	(0.040)	(0.0134)	(0.0412)	(0.0939)	(0.0862)	(0.0653)	(0.153)
IND_D	0.525^***	1.597^***	-2.516^***	2.379^***	0.644	5.189^***	0.545	2.941^***
IND_D	(0.175)	(0.436)	(0.147)	(0.439)	(0.788)	(0.819)	(0.574)	(1.063)
GDP_D	0.385^***	-0.246^**	0.141^***	-0.289^***	-0.206	-0.165	0.00235	-0.981
GDP_D	(0.0175)	(0.111)	(0.0374)	(0.111)	(0.232)	(0.294)	(0.172)	(0.740)
常数项	25.20^***	27.64^***	39.99^***	15.22^***	-12.72^*	40.98^***	2.653	25.21^***
常数项	(1.298)	(2.961)	(0.996)	(3.134)	(6.898)	(5.053)	(4.782)	(7.335)
个体固定效应	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
系数差异P值					1.591^***		1.393^***
N	13 286	13 286	13 286	13 286	7 754	5 532	9 974	3 312
adj. R²	0.147	0.440	0.876	0.446	0.497	0.562	0.460	0.634

变量	引力模型	中介效应检验			巴黎协定		中美贸易战
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Dep.Var.	Value	Value	Solar_D	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
CEI	-0.442^***	-0.944^***	-0.391^***	-0.823^***	-1.819^***	-2.554^***	-1.393^***	-0.803
CEI	(0.0724)	(0.235)	(0.0790)	(0.234)	(0.433)	(0.413)	(0.337)	(0.653)
Solar_D				0.311^***
Solar_D				(0.0268)
Distance	-1.458^***
Distance	(0.0823)
IND_P	-0.813^***	-4.457^***	-6.724^***	-2.367^***	8.205^***	-7.743^***	3.571^***	-4.326^***
IND_P	(0.173)	(0.471)	(0.158)	(0.502)	(1.143)	(0.863)	(0.779)	(1.079)
GDP_P	0.773^***	0.660^***	0.403^***	0.534^***	1.262^***	0.714^***	0.971^***	0.247
GDP_P	(0.0190)	(0.040)	(0.0134)	(0.0412)	(0.0939)	(0.0862)	(0.0653)	(0.153)
IND_D	0.525^***	1.597^***	-2.516^***	2.379^***	0.644	5.189^***	0.545	2.941^***
IND_D	(0.175)	(0.436)	(0.147)	(0.439)	(0.788)	(0.819)	(0.574)	(1.063)
GDP_D	0.385^***	-0.246^**	0.141^***	-0.289^***	-0.206	-0.165	0.00235	-0.981
GDP_D	(0.0175)	(0.111)	(0.0374)	(0.111)	(0.232)	(0.294)	(0.172)	(0.740)
常数项	25.20^***	27.64^***	39.99^***	15.22^***	-12.72^*	40.98^***	2.653	25.21^***
常数项	(1.298)	(2.961)	(0.996)	(3.134)	(6.898)	(5.053)	(4.782)	(7.335)
个体固定效应	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
系数差异P值					1.591^***		1.393^***
N	13 286	13 286	13 286	13 286	7 754	5 532	9 974	3 312
adj. R²	0.147	0.440	0.876	0.446	0.497	0.562	0.460	0.634

变量	调节效应			省份异质性
	调节效应			政策激励强	政策激励弱
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Dep.Var.	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
CEI	-0.488^*	-0.593^**	-3.004^***	-1.561^***	-0.205
CEI	(0.268)	(0.242)	(0.325)	(0.285)	(0.401)
RCA_P	0.594^***	2.647^***
RCA_P	(0.0374)	(0.356)
CEI×RCA_P		-0.282^***
CEI×RCA_P		(0.0441)
Solar_P	0.217^***		-2.033^***
Solar_P	(0.0290)		(0.169)
CEI×Solar_P			0.284^***
CEI×Solar_P			(0.0206)
IND_P	-1.501^**	-4.281^***	-1.314^*	-12.57^***	-2.400^***
IND_P	(0.686)	(0.468)	(0.688)	(0.809)	(0.681)
GDP_P	0.316^***	0.675^***	0.297^***	0.375^***	0.539^***
GDP_P	(0.0538)	(0.0397)	(0.0540)	(0.0483)	(0.100)
IND_D	2.192^***	1.666^***	2.667^***	0.221	4.217^***
IND_D	(0.483)	(0.432)	(0.485)	(0.532)	(0.736)
GDP_D	-0.413^***	-0.244^**	-0.559^***	-0.570^***	0.152
GDP_D	(0.131)	(0.110)	(0.132)	(0.154)	(0.160)
常数项	10.63^***	23.35^***	29.51^***	70.82^***	4.266
常数项	(3.782)	(2.983)	(4.037)	(4.309)	(4.809)
个体固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
系数差异P值	—	—	—	-1.607^***
N	10 850	13 286	10 850	7 994	5 292
adj. R²	0.477	0.449	0.474	0.470	0.375