The evolution and influencing factors of spatial pattern of trade between Chongqing and ASEAN countries under the background of “The Belt and Road Initiative”

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.04.2019178

Abstract

Abstract:

Trade connectivity is an important indicator of trade flow under “The Belt and Road Initiative”. As the openness of inland area in western China, Chongqing has the advantages in trade connectivity. Using Trade intensity index and HM index, this paper analyzes the evolution of trade pattern, dependency level and its influencing factors between Chongqing and ASEAN countries from 2001 to 2017. The results show that: 1）Trade between Chongqing and ASEAN countries has increased rapidly and had the leading position between Chongqing and regions of “the Belt and Road” area; 2）Malaysia and Thailand have been the most important trading partners of Chongqing in ASEAN countries. The role of Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia increase significantly while the role of Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei decrease; 3）In terms of import trade with Chongqing City, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have the main import trade shares. And the role of Thailand and Vietnam have risen. In terms of export trade, Malaysia has been the most important partner while the role of Vietnam has declined; 4）In terms of trade interdependence, the importance level of Chongqing exports toward ASEAN countries has increased, especially the trade between Chongqing and Malaysia and the trade between Chongqing and Singapore, while the dependency level is low; 5）We argue that industrial structure between Chongqing and ASEAN countries , transportation corridor, cultural exchange and trade policies are the most important factors that influence the development of trade pattern between Chongqing and ASEAN countries.

Key words: “The Belt and Road Initiative”, trade intensity index, HM index, Chongqing, ASEAN countries

摘要：

“贸易畅通”是“一带一路”建设的重要内容，重庆作为中国西部地区内陆开放高地，贸易发展优势明显。运用贸易强度指数和HM指数，分析2001—2017年重庆与东盟国家贸易格局和贸易依赖程度，并分析影响重庆与东盟国家贸易格局的影响因素。结果表明：①重庆与东盟国家贸易联系紧密，增长速度快，贸易总额在“一带一路”沿线六大区域中始终保持领先地位；②马来西亚和泰国成为重庆与东盟国家中最重要的贸易伙伴，越南、新加坡、菲律宾和印度尼西亚紧随其后，而与缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝和文莱的贸易总额较少；③在进口方面，形成以马来西亚、泰国和越南为首的多元进口格局，泰国和越南进口伙伴地位上升。在出口方面，形成以马来西亚为首的多元出口新格局，越南出口地位下降；④在市场相互依赖程度方面，重庆出口对东盟国家特别是马来西亚和新加坡贸易市场的重要性程度上升，而对东盟国家市场依赖程度较小；⑤产业结构、贸易通道、文化交流和政策等是影响重庆与东盟国家贸易格局的重要影响因素。

关键词: “一带一路”, 贸易强度指数, HM指数, 重庆, 东盟

Yu DU, Huiming ZONG. The evolution and influencing factors of spatial pattern of trade between Chongqing and ASEAN countries under the background of “The Belt and Road Initiative”[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(4): 697-707.

杜瑜, 宗会明. “一带一路”建设背景下重庆与东盟国家贸易格局演变和影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(4): 697-707.

Figures/Tables 8

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	2001年		2006年		2011年		2017年
国家	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%
泰国	0.89	0.87	1.49	2.07	1.12	1.40	1.02	1.29
新加坡	0.33	0.61	0.76	0.30	0.87	1.73	1.11	2.05
马来西亚	0.47	0.55	0.65	0.73	1.88	1.91	2.46	2.66
印度尼西亚	7.75	3.81	4.84	0.15	1.58	1.53	2.03	1.80
菲律宾	3.50	1.94	3.12	1.58	4.09	0.86	2.10	1.20
文莱	0.26	-	-	-	1.77	-	0.65	-
越南	140.14	36.10	11.55	0.02	2.85	1.66	0.92	1.22
老挝	-	-	-	-	13.21	0.12	1.67	0.06
缅甸	-	-	-	-	34.41	-	5.40	0.59
柬埔寨	4.74	-	-	-	24.76	0.15	11.78	1.16

	2001年		2006年		2011年		2017年
国家	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%	贸易强度指数	HM指数/%
泰国	0.89	0.87	1.49	2.07	1.12	1.40	1.02	1.29
新加坡	0.33	0.61	0.76	0.30	0.87	1.73	1.11	2.05
马来西亚	0.47	0.55	0.65	0.73	1.88	1.91	2.46	2.66
印度尼西亚	7.75	3.81	4.84	0.15	1.58	1.53	2.03	1.80
菲律宾	3.50	1.94	3.12	1.58	4.09	0.86	2.10	1.20
文莱	0.26	-	-	-	1.77	-	0.65	-
越南	140.14	36.10	11.55	0.02	2.85	1.66	0.92	1.22
老挝	-	-	-	-	13.21	0.12	1.67	0.06
缅甸	-	-	-	-	34.41	-	5.40	0.59
柬埔寨	4.74	-	-	-	24.76	0.15	11.78	1.16

国家/地区	第一产业/%	第二产业/%	第三产业/%	主导产业
重庆	2.9	46.3	50.8	电子信息产业、汽车摩托车制造业、运输装备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、石油天然气开采业等
泰国	8.2	36.2	55.6	农业、旅游业、制造业、汽车工业等
新加坡	0.7	25.6	73.7	电子工业、石化工业、精密工程业、生物医药、金融保险业、商业服务业、运输仓储业等
马来西亚	8.8	37.6	53.6	农业、采矿业、制造业、建筑业、服务业等
印度尼西亚	13.6	41	45.4	石油天然气、农林渔业、采矿业、工业制造业等
菲律宾	9.6	30.6	59.8	农业、旅游业、交通、通讯和仓储业
文莱	1.1	58.7	40.2	石油和天然气开采
越南	15.3	33.3	51.4	农林渔业、汽车工业、油气工业、服务业等
老挝	20.8	33.3	45.9	农业、采矿业、旅游业等
缅甸	23.3	36.3	40.4	石油和天然气开采、农业、采矿业、加工制造业等
柬埔寨	25.3	32.8	41.9	农业、制衣业、建筑业、旅游业等

国家/地区	第一产业/%	第二产业/%	第三产业/%	主导产业
重庆	2.9	46.3	50.8	电子信息产业、汽车摩托车制造业、运输装备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、石油天然气开采业等
泰国	8.2	36.2	55.6	农业、旅游业、制造业、汽车工业等
新加坡	0.7	25.6	73.7	电子工业、石化工业、精密工程业、生物医药、金融保险业、商业服务业、运输仓储业等
马来西亚	8.8	37.6	53.6	农业、采矿业、制造业、建筑业、服务业等
印度尼西亚	13.6	41	45.4	石油天然气、农林渔业、采矿业、工业制造业等
菲律宾	9.6	30.6	59.8	农业、旅游业、交通、通讯和仓储业
文莱	1.1	58.7	40.2	石油和天然气开采
越南	15.3	33.3	51.4	农林渔业、汽车工业、油气工业、服务业等
老挝	20.8	33.3	45.9	农业、采矿业、旅游业等
缅甸	23.3	36.3	40.4	石油和天然气开采、农业、采矿业、加工制造业等
柬埔寨	25.3	32.8	41.9	农业、制衣业、建筑业、旅游业等

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