Abstract:

This paper analyzed the trade pattern of China in South Asia based on the trading data between China and South Asia countries from 2000 to 2016. The degree of interdependence between China and South Asian countries was measured via the HM index. The study indicated that:1)from the perspective of trade volume, India has been China's largest trading partner in that area;2)there is significant trade imbalance between China and South Asian countries;3)China's trade pattern in South Asia has been dominated by trading relationship with India, supplemented by that with Pakistan and Bangladesh;4)international disparity in major commodity categories exported to South Asia is shrinking, featuring mainly by capital- or technology-intensive exports;5)while discrepancy in major commodity categories among China's imports from South Asia is impressive and the majority of the imports is labor-intensive products;6)China's dependence on export to South Asian countries is notably lower than that of South Asian countries' to China;7)The dependence of Chinese exports on south Asian countries is growing since 2013,, while the dependence of south Asian countries on China is declining.

Key words: the "Belt and Road" Initiative, trade pattern, HM index, China, South Asia, India

摘要：

选取UN Comtrade 2000年—2016年中国与南亚各国相关贸易数据，从中国与南亚的贸易现状入手，对中国在南亚地区的贸易格局进行了分析，并运用HM指数对中国与南亚国家的贸易相互依赖程度进行测算。研究表明：①中国与南亚地区的贸易总额呈增长态势，印度是中国在南亚最大的贸易伙伴；②中国与南亚各国贸易显著不平衡；③中国在南亚的贸易格局一直以印度为主，以巴基斯坦和孟加拉国为辅；④中国出口南亚的主要商品类别的国家间差异在缩小，以资本或技术密集型产品中的机械及运输设备为主；⑤中国进口南亚的主要商品类别的国家间差异较大，但以劳动密集型产品为主；⑥中国出口对南亚国家的依赖程度明显低于南亚国家出口对中国的依赖程度；⑦“一带一路”倡议提出至今，中国出口对南亚国家的依赖程度整体呈增长态势，而南亚国家出口对中国的依赖程度多呈下降态势。

关键词: “一带一路”, 贸易格局, HM指数, 中国, 南亚, 印度