Establishment of RCEP FTA and its trade pattern evolution among member countries

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.04.2021785

Abstract

Abstract:

RCEP Free Trade Area (FTA) is currently the largest FTA in the world. It is an important platform and carrier for China to promote the development of the multilateral trading system and lead inclusive globalization. Actively integrating and leading the construction of RCEP FTA is of great significance to promote the optimization of China's foreign trade pattern and to form a new development pattern of mutual promotion between domestic and international circulation. In order to provide support for China to lead the development of RCEP FTA, this paper reviews the establishment process of RCEP FTA and analyzes the evolution trend of trade pattern among RCEP member countries. The research shows that: ①The establishment of RCEP FTA can be divided into conception stage, negotiation stage and construction stage. In this process, ASEAN has played a core leading role, but China's role is gradually increasing. ②From 2001 to 2019, RCEP intra-regional trade has experienced three periods, as rapid growth, steady development and rising volatility, while its position in the world trade pattern continued to rise. ③Since 2001, the spatial structure of RCEP trade network has gradually changed from a single core structure with Japan as the core to a dual core structure with China and Japan as the core, and then to a single core structure with China as the cores. ④The evolution of trade relations among RCEP member countries shows diversified characteristics, which can be divided into six categories considering the trade scale and trade concentration. Among them, China, Vietnam, and Australia belong to the fast-growth type, with their trade status in RCEP FTA increased significantly; while the trade status of Brunei, Japan, and Singapore decreased significantly.

Key words: RCEP FTA, establishment process, trade pattern, trade relations, evolution characteristics

摘要：

RCEP自贸区是目前全球体量最大的自由贸易区，是中国推动多边贸易体制发展、引领包容性全球化的重要平台和载体。推动RCEP自贸区建设对中国对外贸易格局优化、形成国内国际双循环的新发展格局具有重要意义。本文梳理RCEP自贸区建立过程，解析RCEP成员国间贸易格局演变态势，以期为中国引领RCEP自贸区发展提供支撑。研究认为：①RCEP自贸区的建立可划分为构思、谈判和建设三个阶段，东盟发挥了核心引领作用，但中国的作用逐步增强；②2001—2019年，RCEP成员国间的贸易联系快速提升，总体经历了快速增长、平稳发展、波动上升三个时期，RCEP在世界贸易格局中的地位不断上升；③2001年以来，RCEP贸易网络由以日本为核心的单核结构逐渐转变为以中国、日本为核心的双核结构，再转变为以中国为核心的单核结构；④RCEP成员国间的贸易关系演化呈多样化特征，综合贸易规模和贸易集中度，可将各国演化模式划分为6类。其中，中国、越南、澳大利亚等国均属于快速增长型，在RCEP自贸区中的贸易地位明显上升；文莱、日本、新加坡等国家的贸易地位则下降比较明显。

关键词: RCEP自贸区, 建立过程, 贸易格局, 贸易关系, 演化特征

Lei TAO, Zhouying SONG. Establishment of RCEP FTA and its trade pattern evolution among member countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 800-813.

陶蕾, 宋周莺. RCEP自贸区的建立及其成员国间贸易格局演化[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(4): 800-813.

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