The growth of military power and evolution of military presence of the U.S. in the South China Sea and surrounding areas

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.04.20222005

Abstract

Abstract:

The ocean has always been a major battleground for world powers, and the South China Sea is no exception due to its outstanding geostrategic value. Using a military power assessment model, this paper portrays the growth of U.S. military power in the South China Sea and clarifies the evolutionary features of U.S. military presence in the South China Sea and surrounding areas. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2019, U.S. military power in the South China Sea shows a phased incremental increase that can be divided into two phases. The first phase, the fluctuating rise during the Obama administration's launch of the Asia-Pacific strategy in 2010-2016; and the second phase, the rapid rise during the Trump administration's launch of the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017-2019. (2) The U.S. military presence in the South China Sea and surrounding areas has increased significantly, including: continuously improving the deployment of military bases centered around the South China Sea military base group and the South China Sea forward military base group; strengthening the shift from bilateral joint military exercises to multilateral joint military exercises; emphasizing the maritime combat test of "freedom of navigation" operations; and continuously strengthening the construction of a three-dimensional network system for military reconnaissance and intelligence collection.

Key words: South China Sea, military power, military presence, United States

摘要：

海洋历来是世界大国角逐的主要战场，南海因其突出的地缘战略价值也不例外。本研究借助军事权力评估模型，刻画美国在南海军事权力的增长态势，明晰美国在南海及周边地区军事存在的演变特征。结果表明：①2010—2019年，美国在南海的军事权力呈现出阶段性递增态势，可划分为2010—2016年奥巴马政府推出亚太战略时期的波动上升，以及2017—2019年特朗普政府推出印太战略时期的迅速提升两个阶段；②美国在南海及周边地区的军事存在显著增强，包括不断完善以环南海军事基地群和南海前沿军事基地群为核心的军事基地部署，加强引导双边联合军演向多边联合军演转变，着重强调“航行自由”行动的海上实战性检验以及持续强化军事侦察和情报收集的立体化网络体系构建。

关键词: 南海, 军事权力, 军事存在, 美国

Wanpeng CAO. The growth of military power and evolution of military presence of the U.S. in the South China Sea and surrounding areas[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 726-736.

曹宛鹏. 美国在南海及周边地区的军事权力增长及军事存在演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(4): 726-736.

References 39

1	杜德斌, 马亚华. "一带一路": 中华民族复兴的地缘大战略. 地理研究, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.
	DU D, MA Y. One Belt and One Road: The grand geo-strategy of China's rise. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.
2	杜德斌,范斐,马亚华.南海主权争端的战略态势及中国的应对方略. 世界地理研究, 2012, 21(2): 1-17.
	DU D, FAN F, MA Y. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea and China' s strategies.World Regional Studies, 2012, 21(2): 1-17.
3	PASZAK P. The Malacca Strait, the South China Sea and the Sino-American competition in the Indo-Pacific. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2021, 8(2): 174-194.
4	TEIXEIRA V A G. The Hegemony's contest in the South China Sea. SAGE Open, 2021, 11(3): 1-15.
5	KAPLAN R D. The South China Sea is the future of conflict. (2011-08-15) [2022-05-23]. .
6	杜德斌, 段德忠, 夏启繁, 等. 世界地理结构与美国的全球战略及军力设计. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 667-684.
	DU D, DUAN D, XIA Q, et al. World geographic structure and U.S. global strategy and military force design. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 667-684.
7	OTT M. The South China Sea in strategic terms. Wilson Center. (2019-5-14) [2020-3-15]. .
8	HU B. Sino-US competition in the South China Sea: Power, rules and legitimacy. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2021(26): 485-504.
9	SCOBELL A. The South China Sea and US-China rivalry. Political Science Quarterly, 2018, 133 (2): 199-225.
10	任子晨.奥巴马政府时期美国亚太军事部署的调整.国际研究参考,2016(8):7-11.
	REN Z.Adjustment of American military deployment in the Asia Pacific region during the Obama administration.International Study Reference,2016(8): 7-11.
11	VUKOVIC S. Halting and reversing escalation in the South China Sea: A bargaining framework. Global Policy, 2020, 11(5): 598-610.
12	SIMON S W. The US Rebalance in Southeast Asia. Asian Survey, 2015, 55(3): 572-595.
13	胡志丁, 刘玉立, 李灿松, 等. 权力、地缘环境与地缘位势评价——以中日钓鱼岛之争为例. 热带地理, 2014, 34(1): 50-57.
	HU Z, LIU Y, LI C, et al. Power, Geo-setting and evaluation method of geo-potential: A case study of the dispute over China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands. Tropical Geography, 2014, 34(1): 50-57.
14	金灿荣, 刘宣佑, 黄达. "美国亚太再平衡战略"对中美关系的影响. 东北亚论坛, 2013, 109(5): 3-12.
	JIN C, LIU X, HUANG D. Impact of the "U.S. Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy" on Sino-U.S. relations. Northeast Asia Forum, 2013, 109(5): 3-12.
15	CLINTON H. America's Pacific Century. Foreign Policy, 2011: 1-11.
16	宋清润.从"亚太再平衡"战略看美菲军事同盟关系.国际研究参考,2015(1):1-9.
	SONG Q.On the US Philippines military alliance from the perspective of "Asia Pacific rebalancing" strategy.International Data Information,2015(1):1-9.
17	张学昆.东南亚国家对美国"亚太再平衡"战略的认知差异分析.国际论坛,2015,17(3):25-30.
	ZHANG X. Divergent perceptions of Southeast Asian countries towards the US rebalance strategy. International Forum, 2015,17(3):25-30.
18	吴心伯. 论中美战略竞争. 世界经济与政治, 2020 (5): 97-131.
	WU X. On Sino-U.S. strategic competition. World Economics and Politics, 2020 (5): 97-131.
19	The White House. National security strategy of the United States of America. (2017-12) [2022-02-24]. .
20	U.S. Department of Defense. Indo-Pacific strategy report: Preparedness, partnerships, and promoting a networked region. (2019-06-01) [2022-02-24]. .
21	Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. A free and open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a shared vision. (2019-11-03) [2022-04-22]. .
22	杨悦.大国竞争与特朗普政府对东南亚政策.美国研究,2020,34(6):89-109.
	YANG Y. Major power competition and the Trump Administrations policy toward Southeast Asia.The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2020,34(6): 89-109.
23	凌胜利.中美亚太安全竞争:缘起,内涵与影响.当代世界与社会主义,2020(4):165-172.
	LING S. Sino-U.S. Asia Pacific Security Competition: origin, connotation, and influence. Contemporary World and Socialism, 2020(4): 165-172.
24	陈永.南海战略态势感知计划:强化外围基地、加强前沿威慑—美军近期南海军事行动的分析和展望. (2019-06-12) [2020-12-25]. .
	CHEN Y. South China Sea strategic situational probing initiative: Strengthening peripheral bases and enhancing forward deterrence--analysis and outlook of recent U.S. Military Operations in the South China Sea. (2019-06-12) [2020-12-25]. .
25	Department of Defense.Base structure report: FY 2018 baseline. (2017-09-30) [2019-10-08]. .
26	郗笃刚, 刘建忠, 周桥. "亚太再平衡"战略实施以来美国在南海周边军事布局及其对南海问题的影响. 亚太安全与海洋研究, 2017 (6): 56-69.
	XI D, LIU J, ZHOU Q. The military layout of the USA around the South China Sea since the implementation of the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy and its profound impact on the South China Sea issue. Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs, 2017 (6): 56-69.
27	宋清润. "亚太再平衡"战略背景下的美泰军事同盟. 国别和区域研究, 2017 (4): 94-107.
	SONG Q. US-Thai military alliance against the background of Asia-Pacific Rebalancing. Journal of International and Regional Studies, 2017 (4): 94-107.
28	庄林, 仲雪韵. 近期美国海军南海地区活动态势分析. 国防科技, 2020, 41(4): 35-41.
	ZHUANG L, ZHONG X. Trend of the recent U.S. naval operations in the South China Sea. National Defense Technology, 2020, 41(4): 35-41.
29	胡欣.美国东南亚战略调整与联合军演功能分析.南洋问题研究,2019(4):1-12.
	HU X.The adjustment of U.S. Southeast Asia strategy and a functional analysis of the Joint Military Exercises.Southeast Asian Affairs,2019(4): 1-12.
30	周文静.南海地区联合军演的法律规制研究.上海:华东政法大学,2018.
	ZHOU W.The study on the legal regulation of joint military exercises in the South China Sea.Shanghai: East China University of Political Science and Law, 2018.
31	周翠虹, 李玉荣. 南海周边国家海军军事演习特点分析. 现代军事, 2015(3):46-49.
	ZHOU C, LI Y. Analysis of the characteristics of naval military exercises of countries around the South China Sea. Conmilit, 2015(3):46-49.
32	马银福. "金色眼镜蛇"演习的变化及其影响. 战略决策研究, 2019(6): 61-77.
	MA Y. The change and influence of the Cobra Gold Exercise. Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making, 2019(6): 61-77.
33	南海战略态势感知计划. 2019 年美军在南海及周边地区的军事演习. (2019-12-11) [2020-12-25]. .
	South China Sea Strategic Situational Probing Initiative. 2019 U.S. Military exercises in the South China Sea and surrounding areas. (2019-12-11) [2020-12-25]. .
34	邢瑞利.美国对南海"航行自由"问题的安全化建构及中国应对.太平洋学报,2019,27(4):25-39.
	XING R.The U.S. Securitization of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and China's countermeasures.Pacific Journal,2019,27(4): 25-39.
35	南海战略态势感知计划. 2019 年美军南海军事活动不完全报告. (2020-03-28) [2020-12-25]. .
	South China Sea Strategic Situational Probing Initiative. Incomplete report on U.S. military activities in the South China Sea 2019. (2020-03-28) [2020-12-25]. .
36	南海战略态势感知计划. 2020 年美军南海军事活动不完全报告. (2021-03-12) [2021-03-25]. .
	South China Sea Strategic Situational Probing Initiative. Incomplete report on U.S. military activities in the South China Sea 2020. (2021-03-12) [2021-03-25]. .
37	人民网. 专家:美国频繁抵近侦察监视中国南海三大建设. (2015-07-03) [2022-05-01]. .
	People's Daily Online. Experts: The United States frequent close reconnaissance surveillance of China's South China Sea three major construction. (2015-07-03) [2022-05-01]. .
38	南海战略态势感知计划. 2018年美军南海军事活动不完全报告. (2019-06-01) [2020-12-25]. .
	South China Sea Strategic Situational Probing Initiative. Incomplete report on U.S. military activities in the South China Sea 2018. (2019-06-01) [2020-12-25]. .
39	中国南海研究院.«美国在亚太地区的军力报告2020»摘要版. (2020-10-21) [2022-05-25]. .
	National Institute for South China Sea Studies. Summary edition of U.S. military power in the Asia-Pacific region report 2020. (2020-10-21) [2022-05-25]. .

[1]	Menglin WANG, Ying CHEN, Tingting ZHANG. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of intrastate COFDI in the United States: A case study of Texas [J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(1): 54-66.
[2]	Qingjun JIA. The evolution of the U.S. geo-cognition on the South China Sea before the 1950s [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(5): 895-904.
[3]	Xin ZHAO. Spatio-temporal characteristics of fishery resources utilization in the South China Sea and its governance [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 762-772.
[4]	Shulan YE. Evolution of geostrategic logic of the South China Sea and construction of a community of shared future in the South China Sea [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 687-699.
[5]	Liehui WANG, Sheng ZHANG, Rui CHEN. Network vulnerability of ports around the South China Sea and the impact on Chinese maritime transport [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 700-712.
[6]	Weidong GUO, Debin DU, Xiya LI, Qifan XIA, Wanpeng CAO. Spatial characteristics of arms trade pattern of the South China Sea Region and its geopolitical implications [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 713-725.
[7]	Jingya XU, Zhouying SONG. The geo-economic relations between Hainan Free Trade Port and Pan-South China Sea countries and its impact factors [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 737-747.
[8]	Qifan XIA. The spatio-temporal characteristics of China's energy investment layout and risk in RCEP countries [J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(4): 814-826.
[9]	Lianghui HE, Desheng XUE. Evolution of geo-economic and trade relations among the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea [J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(3): 469-479.
[10]	DU Debin, DUAN Dezhong, XIA Qifan. A comparative study of Sino-US science and technology competitiveness [J]. WRS, 2019, 28(4): 1-11.
[11]	DUAN Dezhong, DU Debin, ZHANG Yang. Comparative research of industrial technology innovation capability between China and the United States [J]. WRS, 2019, 28(4): 24-34.
[12]	. Analysis on status characteristicsand regional differences of American marine economy [J]. WRS, 2017, 26(3): 39-45.
[13]	. The Spatial-temporal Evolution of COFDI in the United States Since 2000 [J]. WRS, 2016, (02): 40-49.
[14]	. Analysis of Location Selection and Influence of China`s Private Enterprises Direct Investment in the United States [J]. WRS, 2016, (01): 67-74.