Abstract:

With the continuous escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, many European countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, only Serbia has become the "European island" in the wave of anti-Russia. As a candidate country that has been seeking formal accession to the EU, its position of supporting Russia is worth further investigation. At the same time, there is tension between the explanation provided by the mainstream rational choice theory and the reality of the event. The group emotion theory provides a more appropriate analytical framework. Specifically, the political basic sentiment in Serbia shapes the basic direction of its preference for the Ukrainian crisis. The political immediate sentiment mobilized by the Vucic government further deepens the pro-Russian complex of its domestic people. And the contrast between Russia and the European and American emotional evaluation methods of Serbia leads to Serbia's official preference for the Ukrainian crisis supporting the EU verbally, but actually leaning more towards Russia.

Key words: intergroup emotion, Serbia, Ukrainian crisis, foreign policy preferences, Russia

摘要：

随着乌克兰危机的不断升级，欧洲诸国纷纷对俄罗斯进行制裁，只有塞尔维亚成了反俄浪潮中的“欧洲孤岛”。作为一直寻求正式加入欧盟的候选国，其支持俄罗斯的立场值得深究。同时，主流的理性选择理论提供的解释与该事件现实之间存在张力，群体情感理论则提供了一种更加贴切的分析框架。具体来说，塞尔维亚国内的政治基调情感形塑着其在乌克兰危机中立场偏好的基本方向，武契奇政府调动的政治即时情感进一步加深其国内民众的亲俄情结，以及俄罗斯和欧美对塞尔维亚的情感评价手段形成鲜明的对比，导致塞尔维亚官方在乌克兰危机中的立场偏好口头上支持欧盟，实际行动上更加倾向于俄罗斯。

关键词: 群体情感, 塞尔维亚, 乌克兰危机, 对外政策偏好, 俄罗斯