Abstract:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict profoundly affects not only global geopolitical relations but also global geo-economic relations. And Russia is of great importance in the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. An in-depth analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution of Russia's trade patterns is a key prerequisite, not only for strengthening the construction of the Belt and Road, but also for providing references for clarifying global trade relations and geopolitical patterns. Based on trade data of Russia from 2001 to 2021, we characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of its trade patterns and major trade flows. The results show that: (1) Since 2001, Russia's foreign trade has gone through rapid development, which can be divided into four stages: rapid growing, adjusting and recovering, adjusting and downward, recovering and upward. (2) Commodity structure of Russia's export trade is relatively homogeneous, dominated by energy and raw materials product, such as energy, minerals and base metals; while the import commodity structure is relatively stable, dominated by technology-intensive and labor-intensive products, such as machinery and electronics, transportation, and chemicals. (3) In terms of trade patterns, the scope of Russia's foreign trade has contracted, which is mainly concentrated in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Western Europe and East Asia. The status of East Asia, especially China, increased significantly while the status of Central and Eastern Europe decreased. The export markets change dramatically but always concentrated in Europe. Whereas the import markets expand towards East Asian region. (4) In terms of trade flows, the categories of Russia's main imports change slightly, but the status of each product and its main flows fluctuate; however, the categories, status and main flows of the main exports change a lot.

Key words: Russia, trade pattern, commodity structure, trade flow, spatio-temporal evolution

摘要：

俄乌冲突不仅影响全球地缘关系，也对全球能源、粮食、制造业等相关产业及其投资贸易格局产生深刻的影响。俄罗斯是中蒙俄经济走廊的核心国家，深入解析俄罗斯贸易格局的时空演变态势，对加强中俄合作、推动“一带一路”建设具有重要意义，对厘清全球贸易关系及地缘格局演变也具有重要参考。本文基于2001—2021年俄罗斯进出口贸易数据，深入刻画其贸易格局演变，并解析其主要贸易流。研究发现：①2001年以来，俄罗斯对外贸易快速发展，总体经历了快速增长期、调整恢复期、调整下行期、恢复上升期4个阶段。②从商品结构来看，俄罗斯出口结构较单一，以能矿产品和贱金属及制品等能源和原材料商品为主；进口结构相对稳定，以机械电子、交通运输、化工等技术密集型和劳动密集型商品为主。③从空间格局看，俄罗斯对外贸易范围有所收缩，主要集中在中欧、东欧、西欧和东亚，由早期的“西高东低”转变为“东西均衡”态势，东亚尤其是中国的地位显著提升，中东欧的地位显著下降；其出口市场波动较大但主要集中在欧洲，东亚是其进口的主要拓展区域，且亚洲已成为其主要进口来源地。④从贸易流看，俄罗斯主要进口商品的类别变动不大，但各商品的地位及其主要流向有所波动；主要出口商品的类别、地位和主要流向变动较大。

关键词: 俄罗斯, 贸易格局, 商品结构, 贸易流, 时空演化