Impact and its mechanism of the carbon emission trading pilot policy on carbon emission intensity:Evidence from Quasi-natural experiment

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.01.20222447

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the constraint of the "dual carbon" goal, carbon emission reduction is an important strategic task for China to optimize the path of sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2003 to 2019,this paper conducted quasi-natural experiments on carbon trading pilot policy. Synthetic control method and difference-indifference model were used to evaluate the impact and mechanism of carbon trading pilot policy on carbon emission intensity, and the spatial spillover effect of policy space was further investigated. The results are as follows:① Carbon trading pilot policy can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity in each pilot region. ②The effect of carbon trading market mechanism on carbon emission reduction is limited, and government intervention is needed as a strong guarantee. At the same time, carbon emission intensity can also be significantly reduced by developing green finance and encouraging technological innovation.③The spatial and temporal distribution of carbon emission intensity has a significant positive correlation; In addition, on the basis of restraining the local carbon emission intensity, the pilot carbon trading policy also restrains the neighboring regions through spatial spillover effect.

Key words: carbon trading pilot policy, carbon emission intensity, synthetic control method, Difference-in-difference Model

摘要：

在“双碳”目标约束下，碳减排工作是中国实现可持续发展路径优化的重要战略任务。本文基于2003—2019年中国30个省的省级面板数据，对碳交易试点政策开展准自然实验，综合采用合成控制法和双重差分法来评估碳交易试点政策对碳排放强度的影响及作用机制，并进一步考察了政策空间溢出效应。研究发现：①碳交易试点政策能够显著降低各试点地区碳排放强度。②碳交易市场机制的碳减排效果有限，需要政府干预作为强有力的保障，两者通过共同作用实现碳减排；同时，通过发展绿色金融和激励技术创新也能显著降低碳排放强度。③碳排放强度在时空分布上呈现显著的空间正相关性；此外，碳交易试点政策在抑制本地区碳排放强度的基础上，通过空间溢出效应对邻近地区也具有约束力度。

关键词: 碳交易试点政策, 碳排放强度, 合成控制法, 双重差分模型

Qinna ZHAO, Hang LI. Impact and its mechanism of the carbon emission trading pilot policy on carbon emission intensity:Evidence from Quasi-natural experiment[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(1): 94-111.

赵沁娜, 李航. 碳交易试点政策对碳排放强度的影响效应与作用机制[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(1): 94-111.

Figures/Tables 14

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解释变量	被解释变量：CI
解释变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
DID	－1.344^***（0.236）	－1.322^***(0.236)	－0.465^**(0.204)	－0.536^**(0.222)
AGDP			1.369^**(0.604)	3.190^***(0.825)
UR			－2.883(2.100)	－6.615^**(2.748)
PD			3.648^***(0.849)	5.084^***(0.943)
DO			－7.047^**(3.284)	－7.291^**(3.357)
CS			－1.615^***(0.308)	－1.087^***(0.347)
ID			－8.180^***(0.190)	－0.548^*(0.282)
ES			3.724^***(0.742)	4.208^***(0.753)
MG			0.106（0.417）	－0.509^*（0.291）
Cons	4.557^***（0.619）	4.556^***(0.056)	－25.430^***(5.743)	－48.141^***(9.158)
Province	否	是	是	是
Year	否	否	否	是
R²	0.061	0.061	0.601	0.624

解释变量	被解释变量：CI
解释变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
DID	－1.344^***（0.236）	－1.322^***(0.236)	－0.465^**(0.204)	－0.536^**(0.222)
AGDP			1.369^**(0.604)	3.190^***(0.825)
UR			－2.883(2.100)	－6.615^**(2.748)
PD			3.648^***(0.849)	5.084^***(0.943)
DO			－7.047^**(3.284)	－7.291^**(3.357)
CS			－1.615^***(0.308)	－1.087^***(0.347)
ID			－8.180^***(0.190)	－0.548^*(0.282)
ES			3.724^***(0.742)	4.208^***(0.753)
MG			0.106（0.417）	－0.509^*（0.291）
Cons	4.557^***（0.619）	4.556^***(0.056)	－25.430^***(5.743)	－48.141^***(9.158)
Province	否	是	是	是
Year	否	否	否	是
R²	0.061	0.061	0.601	0.624

解释变量	被解释变量：DID	被解释变量：CI	被解释变量：CI
解释变量	第一阶段	第二阶段	加入工具变量
DID		－1.360^**（0.562）	－0.543^**（0.222）
AVC	－0.298^**（0.142）		－0.687（0.655）
Controls	是	是	是
Province	是	是	是
Year	是	是	是
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM		4.221
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F		32.385
Cragg-Donald Wald F		24.765
Hansen J		0
N	510	510	510
R²	0.075	0.533	0.625

解释变量	被解释变量：DID	被解释变量：CI	被解释变量：CI
解释变量	第一阶段	第二阶段	加入工具变量
DID		－1.360^**（0.562）	－0.543^**（0.222）
AVC	－0.298^**（0.142）		－0.687（0.655）
Controls	是	是	是
Province	是	是	是
Year	是	是	是
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM		4.221
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F		32.385
Cragg-Donald Wald F		24.765
Hansen J		0
N	510	510	510
R²	0.075	0.533	0.625

解释变量	被解释变量：CI			被解释变量：能源强度
解释变量	反事实检验	排除其他政策干扰	倾向得分匹配	替换被解释变量
DID	－0.164(0.381)	－0.720^***(0.225)	－0.186^*(0.097)	－0.191^***(0.053)
Controls	是	是	是	是
Cons	－64.272^***(9.862)	－69.071^***(8.931)	－16.480^*(8.875)	－20.052^***(1.881)
Province	是	是	是	是
Year	是	是	是	是
N	510	510	184	510
R²	0.627	0.665	0.879	0.829