Spatio-temporal coupling and influencing factors of man-land relationship in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River Delta

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.02.20230178

Abstract

Abstract:

Promoting the coordinated development of population urbanization and land urbanization is an important measure to realize the new urbanization with people as the core. Based on the panel data of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2020, this paper constructed a coupling and coordination degree model of population urbanization and land urbanization as well as using ArcGIS to measure their coordinated development relationship and spatial-temporal characteristics; By constructing a fixed effect model, this paper found out the influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that: (1) The integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta has a significant impact on the human-land coupling characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration; (2) The degree of coupling and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region is on the rise as a whole, and the gap between different cities is becoming smaller and smaller, and the regional balance is rising; (3) Spatially, the high value is distributed in Shanghai and Nanjing, while the low value is distributed in the regional edge. It is "low in the West and high in the East" in the east-west direction, and "inverted U" in the north-south direction with the main channel of the Yangtze River as the axis; (4) The influence of industrial structure, population carrying pressure, economic development level, fixed asset investment, transfer of state-owned land use right and the degree of opening to the outside world on the coupled coordinated dispatching decreases in turn. Except for the negative impact of the degree of opening to the outside world, other factors have a positive impact. In addition, there are significant differences in influencing factors among regions.

Key words: Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations, man-land relationship, population urbanization, land urbanization, coordinated development

摘要：

促进人地协调发展是实现以人为核心的新型城镇化的重要举措。基于2006—2020年长三角城市群面板数据，构建人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调度模型，并运用ArcGIS软件，测度人地关系时空耦合特征；通过构建固定效应模型，研究长三角城市群人地耦合协调发展的影响因素。结果表明：①长三角一体化战略对长三角城市群人地耦合特征影响显著；②长三角地区人口与土地城镇化耦合协调度整体呈上升趋势，且不同城市间的差距不断缩小，区域均衡性不断提升；③空间分布上，高值分布于上海与南京，低值则分布于区域边缘，东西方向上呈“西低东高”，南北方向上以长江主航道为轴线呈“倒U”形分布；④产业结构、人口承载压力、经济发展水平、固定资产投资、国有土地使用权出让和对外开放程度对耦合协调度的影响程度依次减小，各地区间的影响因素差异较为显著。

关键词: 长三角城市群, 人地关系, 人口城镇化, 土地城镇化, 区域协调发展

Shaojun CHEN, Danyang YU. Spatio-temporal coupling and influencing factors of man-land relationship in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(2): 114-127.

陈绍军, 余丹阳. 长三角城市群城镇化进程中人地关系的时空耦合特征及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 114-127.

Figures/Tables 3

References 40

1	蔡昉,都阳,杨开中,等.新中国城镇化发展70年.北京:人民出版社,2019.
	CAI F, DU Y, YANG K, et al. 70 Years of Urbanization in the People`s Republic of China. Beijing: People's Publishing House, 2019.
2	张占斌.新型城镇化的战略意义和改革难题.国家行政学院学报,2013(1):48-54.
	ZHANG Z. The strategic significance of new urbanization and reform challenges. Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance, 2013(1):48-54.
3	施凡基,徐勇.中国县域人口城镇化与产业高级化的时空耦合及其影响因素研究.长江流域资源与环境,2021,30(12):2811-2821.
	SHI F, XU Y. Spatial-temporal coupling characteristics and its influencing factors between population urbanization and industrial upgrading at country level in China. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2021,30(12):2811-2821.
4	张晓娟,高敏华,孜比布拉·司马义,等.基于耦合协调模型的新疆人口城镇化与土地城镇化关系研究.西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2022,58(2):106-113.
	ZHANG X, GAO M, ZIBIBULA S, et al. Research on the relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in Xinjiang based on the coupling coordination model. Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science),2022,58(2):106-113.
5	牛文远,中国新型城镇化报告.北京:科学出版社,2012.
	NIU W, China's New Urbanization Report. Beijing: Science Press, 2012.
6	KOVCS Z, FARKAS Z J, EGEDY T, et al. Urban sprawl and land conversion in post-socialist cities: The case of metropolitan Budapest . Cities, 2019, 92: 71-81.
7	靳亚亚,赵凯,肖桂春.陕西省耕地保护经济补偿分区研究:基于粮食安全与生态安全双重视角.中国土地科学,2015,29(10):12-19.
	JIN Y, ZHAO K, XIAO G. The economic compensation zoning of the cultivated land protection in Shanxi Province. China Land Science,2015,29(10):12-19.
8	童彦,潘玉君,张梅芬,等.云南人口城市化与土地城市化耦合协调发展研究.世界地理研究,2020,29(1):120-129.
	TONG Y, PAN Y, ZHANG M, et al. Analysis on coupling and coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yunnan Province. World Regional Studies,2020,29(1):120-129.
9	XIE Y. Land expropriation, shock to employment, and employment differentiation: Findings from land-lost farmers in Nanjing, China. Land Use Policy, 2019, 87,104040.
10	吴传钧.论地理学的研究核心——人地关系地域系统.经济地理,1991(3):1-6.
	WU C. On the geographical system of human-enviroment relations: The core of research in geography. Economic Geography,1991(3):1-6.
11	吴传钧.人地关系地域系统的理论研究及调控.云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008(2):1-3.
	WU C. Theoretical study and regulation of the territorial system of human-earth relations. Journal of Yunnan Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition),2008(2):1-3.
12	PUCCI S, PANTOSTI D, DE MARTINI P, et al. Environment-human relationships in historical times: The balance between urban development and natural forces at Leptis Magna(Libya). Quaternary International, 2011,242:171-184.
13	KOCSIS T. Looking through the dataquadrate: Characterizing the human-environment relationship through economic, hedonic, ecological and demographic measures. Journal of Cleaner Production,2012,35:1-15.
14	李小云,杨宇,刘毅.中国人地关系的历史演变过程及影响机制.地理研究,2018,37(8):1495-1514.
	LI X, YANG Y, LIU Y.The evolution process and its mechanism of man-land relationship in China. Geographical Research,2018,37(8):1495-1514.
15	曾国军,徐雨晨,王龙杰,等.从在地化、去地化到再地化:中国城镇化进程中的人地关系转型.地理科学进展,2021,40(1):28-39.
	ZENG G, XU Y, WANG L, et al. From localization to de-localization and re-localization: Transformation of the human-land relationship in China's urbanization process. Progress in Geography,2021,40(1):28-39.
16	文贯中.吾民无地:城市化、土地制度与户籍制度的内在逻辑.北京:东方出版社,2014.
	WEN G. No Land for Our People: The Inner Logic of Urbanization, Land System and Household Registration System.Beijing: Eastern Publishing House,2014.
17	张耀宇,陈利根,陈会广."土地城市化"向"人口城市化"转变——一个分析框架及其政策含义.中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(3):127-135.
	ZHANG Y, CHEN L, CHEN H. The shift of urbanization pattern: From "land expansion" to "popolation urbanization": An analytical framework and its policy implication. China Population, Resources and Environment,2016,26(3):127-135.
18	熊柴,蔡继明.中国土地城镇化相对人口城镇化真的过快么?.河北学刊,2021,41(2):146-156.
	XIONG C, CAI J. Facts and reflections on the relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in China. Hebei Academic Journal,2021,41(2):146-156.
19	BRUECKNER J K.Urban sprawl: Diagnosis and Remedies.International Regional Science Review,2000,23:160-171.
20	刘琼,杜晓航,盛业旭.基于阶段对比的中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系.中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(1):26-34.
	LIU Q, DU X, SHENG Y. Study on the coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in China based on stage comparison. China Population, Resources and Environment,2018,28(1):26-34.
21	王成新,王波涛,王翔宇.基于结构视角的中国人口城市化与土地城市化异速增长研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):135-141.
	WANG C, WANG B, WANG X. Study on population urbanization and land urbanization allometric growth in China based on the structure. China Population, Resources and Environment,2016,26(8):135-141.
22	陈春,于立,张锐杰,等.中国城镇化加速阶段中期土地城镇化与人口城镇化的协调程度.长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(11):1654-1662.
	CHEN, C, YU L, ZHANG R, et al. Research on the coordination of the population urbanization and land urbanization during the mid stage of rapid urbanization period in China. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(11):1654-1662.
23	尹宏玲,徐腾.我国城市人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调特征及差异研究.城市规划学刊,2013(2):10-15.
	YIN H, XU T.The mismatch between population urbanization and land urbanization in China.Urban Planning Forum,2013(2):10-15.
24	周艳,黄贤金,徐国良,等.长三角城市土地扩张与人口增长耦合态势及其驱动机制.地理研究,2016,35(2):313-324.
	ZHOU Y, HUANG X, XU G, et al. The coupling and driving forces between urban land expansion and population growth in Yangtze River Delta. Geographical Research,2016,35(2):313-324.
25	金丹,戴林琳.中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的时空特征与驱动因素.中国土地科学,2021,35(6):74-84.
	JIN D, DAI L. Temporal and spatial characteristics and driving factors of coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization in China.China Land Science,2021,35(6):74-84.
26	王亚华,袁源,王映力,等.人口城市化与土地城市化耦合发展关系及其机制研究——以江苏省为例.地理研究,2017,36(1):149-160.
	WANG Y, YUAN Y, WANG Y, et al. Relationship and mechanism of coupling development between population and land urbanization: A case study of Jiangsu Province. Geographical Research,2017,36(1):149-160.
27	吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例.地理科学,2016,36(2):239-246.
	LYU T, WU C, LI H, et al. The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization: A case study of Nanchang city. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(2):239-246.
28	王雪峰,温彦平.湖南省人口城镇化与土地城镇化空间格局演化及协调性研究.湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2019,42(5):34-43.
	WANG X, WEN Y. Study on the spayial pattern evolution and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in Hunan Province. Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University,2019,42(5):34-43.
29	吴一凡,刘彦随,李裕瑞.中国人口与土地城镇化时空耦合特征及驱动机制.地理学报,2018,73(10):1865-1879.
	WU Y, LIU Y, LI Y. Spatio-temporal coupling of demographic-landscape urbanization and its driving forces in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(10):1865-1879.
30	许芬.中国人口城镇化滞后土地城镇化的根源——基于城乡间要素不平等交换视角的分析.城市问题,2016(7):12-17.
	XU F. Causes for China's population urbanization lagging behind of land urbanization: Based on the perspective pf unequal exchange of factors between urban and rural areas. Urban Problems,2016(7):12-17.
31	杨阳,唐晓岚,贾艳艳,等.长江流域人口-土地-经济城镇化的时空耦合协调性与驱动因子分析.世界地理研究,2021,30(5):978-990.
	YANG Y, TANG X, JIA Y,et al.Spatial-temporal coupling coordination and driving factors of population-land-economy urbanization in the Yangtze River Basin.World Regional Studies,2021,30(5):978-990.
32	武小龙,鲍敏.江苏省"人口—土地"城镇化:共生关联与空间差异分析.南京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2021,23(3):63-70.
	WU X, BAO M. An empirical analysis on the symbiotic relationship and spatial difference of "population-land" urbanization in Jiangsu Province. Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(Social Sciences),2021,23(3):63-70.
33	王富喜.山东半岛城市群人口-土地城镇化质量测度与协调发展研究.地理科学,2020,40(8):1345-1354.
	WANG F. Study on the quality measurement and coordinated development of population-land urbanization in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2020,40(8):1345-1354.
34	王锋,张芳,林翔燕,等.长三角"人口-土地-经济-社会"城镇化的耦合协调性研究.工业技术经济,2018,37(4):45-52.
	WANG F, ZHANG F, LIN X, et al. Study on coupling coordination degree among "population, land, economy and society" urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta Region. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2018,37(4):45-52.
35	科技日报.重磅!又一项国家战略来了,影响2.25亿人,这些省市迎来大机会. [Science and Technology Daily.Blockbuster!Here comes another national strategy, affecting 225 million people, and a big opportunity for these provinces and cities. ]
36	任保平,巩羽浩.黄河流域城镇化与高质量发展的耦合研究.经济问题,2022(3):1-12.
	REN B, GONG Y. Study on the coupling of urbanization and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.On Economic Problems,2022(3):1-12.
37	王晓云,杨秀平,张雪梅.基于DEA-Tobit两步法的城镇化效率评价及其影响因素——从人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的视角.生态经济,2017,33(5):29-34.
	WANG X, YANG X, ZHANG X. Evaluation of urbanization efficiency and its influencing factors based on DEA-Tobit two step method from the perspective of coordinated development between urban population and land. Ecological Economy,2017,33(5):29-34.
38	杨喜,卢新海.空间效应视角下中国城市土地城镇化的驱动因素.中国人口·资源与环境,2021,31(1):156-164.
	YANG X, LU X. Driving factors of urban land urbanization in China from the perspective of spatial effects. China Population, Resources and Environment,2021,31(1):156-164.
39	马国勇,王颖.新型城镇化质量影响因素研究——基于东、西部地区的比较.预测,2021,40(6):61-67.
	MA G, WANG Y. Research on the influencing factors of new urbanization quality——Based on the comparison between the eastern and westean regions. Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management,2021,40(6):61-67.
40	刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理.地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
	LIU Y, YANG R. The spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of county urbanization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(8):1011-1020.

估计模型	全域	江苏	浙江	安徽
C	－3.407^***（－7.170）	－3.819^***（－2.790）	－3.525^***（－3.190）	－2.661^***（－4.820）
经济发展水平	0.179^***（8.740）	0.092^**（2.360）	－0.012（－0.290）	0.254^***（8.220）
第二产业比重	0.329^***（5.730）	0.523^***（2.750）	0.394^***（3.750）	0.202^**（2.150）
第三产业比重	0.338^***（6.130）	0.620^***（3.860）	0.763^***（6.380）	0.159^**（2.140）
对外开放程度	－0.033^***（－4.790）	－0.089^***（－5.380）	－0.006（－0.670）	0.011（0.920）
国有土地使用权出让	0.029^***（5.910）	0.039^***（4.960）	－0.008（－1.180）	0.015^*（1.850）
固定资产投资	0.072^***（7.760）	0.050^*（1.970）	0.013（0.690）	0.030^*（2.060）
交通便利程度	－0.018（－0.650）	0.172^**（2.520）	0.087^**（2.350）	0.014（0.330）
人口承载压力	0.216^***（6.110）	0.067（0.830）	0.384^***（3.310）	0.205^***（4.860）
Adj/Within R²	0.710 7	0.844 0	0.767 9	0.805 4

估计模型	全域	江苏	浙江	安徽
C	－3.407^***（－7.170）	－3.819^***（－2.790）	－3.525^***（－3.190）	－2.661^***（－4.820）
经济发展水平	0.179^***（8.740）	0.092^**（2.360）	－0.012（－0.290）	0.254^***（8.220）
第二产业比重	0.329^***（5.730）	0.523^***（2.750）	0.394^***（3.750）	0.202^**（2.150）
第三产业比重	0.338^***（6.130）	0.620^***（3.860）	0.763^***（6.380）	0.159^**（2.140）
对外开放程度	－0.033^***（－4.790）	－0.089^***（－5.380）	－0.006（－0.670）	0.011（0.920）
国有土地使用权出让	0.029^***（5.910）	0.039^***（4.960）	－0.008（－1.180）	0.015^*（1.850）
固定资产投资	0.072^***（7.760）	0.050^*（1.970）	0.013（0.690）	0.030^*（2.060）
交通便利程度	－0.018（－0.650）	0.172^**（2.520）	0.087^**（2.350）	0.014（0.330）
人口承载压力	0.216^***（6.110）	0.067（0.830）	0.384^***（3.310）	0.205^***（4.860）
Adj/Within R²	0.710 7	0.844 0	0.767 9	0.805 4

[1]	Haozhe ZHANG, Qingyuan YANG. Characteristics of "population-land-industry" coordinated development of resource-based shrinking cities in China [J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(1): 163-177.
[2]	Jing CHEN, Li HUANG. Spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors on public environmental awareness in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration [J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(8): 139-151.
[3]	Yafeng ZOU, Qi WANG, Qian ZHANG, Xiaolu DENG, Zhanghua XU. Research on the coordinated development status of new urbanization and ecological civilization in western provincial cities [J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(12): 89-103.
[4]	Mengcheng LI, Chengxin WANG, Mingyue XUE, Weishan QIN. Research on the evaluation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of island tourism development and ecological environment in China [J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(5): 1048-1060.
[5]	Yaoyan JIA, Jing HU, Dajun LIU, Lei ZHU, Yajuan LI. Spatial-temporal pattern of the coordinated development of ecology-culture-tourism of China's provinces [J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(3): 620-631.
[6]	Ya LUO, Jianhong YANG, Qiuwen ZHOU, Xu ZHOU, Jiusheng ZHONG, Xinyue HU, Qiyun GAO. Characteristic of positive and negative terrains and its effect on population distribution in the mountainous area, Guizhou Plateau [J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(1): 204-212.
[7]	Yan TONG, Yujun PAN, Meifen ZHANG, Luyan XU. Analysis on coupling and coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yunnan Province [J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(1): 120-129.
[8]	. Coupling Coordination Research of Tourism Industry and New Urbanization —— Takes Yunnan as The Example [J]. WRS, 2016, (02): 103-114.