Abstract:

Foreign aid is an important tool for the US to implement strategic games, and in-depth analysis of the evolution characteristics of US foreign aid is helpful to comprehensively grasping its geostrategic development. Based on USAID's foreign aid database, the spatiotemporal pattern of U.S. aid to South Asian countries in the fiscal year 2001-2022 was studied using methods such as classification statistics and natural breakpoint method as well as its geostrategic connotation. The results indicate that: ①The overall scale of U.S. aid to South Asia shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, and reached its peak in Obama's first term, which is consistent with the positioning of South Asia in the U.S. geopolitical strategy design. ②U.S. aid projects to South Asian countries have a clear structural and phased nature which mainly focuses on economic and technological fields, with a focus on social stability and military security, and supplemented by political and diplomatic fields and other fields; The main aid targets for the first three types of aid projects have expanded from U.S. counter-terrorism allies to important partners or neutral countries during the transition period of the Trump administration, while the main aid targets for the latter two types of aid projects are relatively stable. ③U.S. aid to South Asian countries shows significant spatial heterogeneity, with its counter-terrorism allies as the first tier, its important partners and some strategic pivot countries as the second tier, and individual strategic pivot countries and peripheral countries as the third tier. However, as the war on terrorism ends and Indo-Pacific Strategy advances, the focus of U.S. aid has expanded from counter-terrorism allies to important partners and neutral countries. ④U.S. main strategic intention in implementing differentiated assistance to South Asian countries is to establish and maintain the US-Pakistan alliance against terrorism and ensure victory in the war on terrorism, to promote the US-India strategic partnership and contain the rise of China, to bridge in and infiltrate neutral countries friendly to China and squeeze China's strategic space.

Key words: foreign aid, aid pattern, aid structure, geostrategy, South Asia, United States

摘要：

对外援助是美国实施地缘战略博弈的重要工具，深入分析美国对外援助的演变特征有利于全面把握其地缘战略发展。基于美国国际开发署的对外援助数据库，利用分类统计、自然断裂点等方法对2001—2022财年美国对南亚国家援助的时空格局进行研究，分析其地缘战略内涵。结果表明：①美国对南亚援助规模先增长后下降，于奥巴马第一任期达到高峰，该状况与南亚在美国地缘战略布局中的定位变化一致。②美国对南亚国家援助项目具有明显的结构性和阶段性特征，援助项目主要以经济科技类为主体、社会稳定类和军事安全类为重点、政治外交类和其他类为补充；特朗普政府时期为过渡期，前三类援助项目的主要援助对象由美国反恐盟友扩大到战略伙伴或中立国家，后两类援助项目的主要援助对象变化相对不大。③美国对南亚国家的援助具有显著的空间异质性，美国的反恐盟友为第一梯队，战略伙伴和部分支点国家为第二梯队，个别支点国家和边缘国家为第三梯队，但随着反恐战争接近尾声以及印太战略的推进，美国的重点援助对象开始由反恐盟友扩大到战略伙伴和中立国家。④美国对南亚国家进行差异化援助的主要战略意图是建立并维护美巴反恐同盟，保障反恐战争的胜利；促进美印战略伙伴关系，围堵遏制中国崛起；拉拢渗透中立友华国家，挤压中国战略空间。

关键词: 对外援助, 援助格局, 援助结构, 地缘战略, 南亚, 美国