Abstract:

Since the comprehensive escalation of the Ukraine crisis, the geopolitical dynamics in the Western Balkans have undergone notable shifts. The region has transitioned from being a "bridge" between the U.S., the EU and Russia to a "zone of contestation." U.S. and EU policy shifts in the Western Balkans are closely synchronized, characterized by efforts to maintain so-called regional stability, accelerate the EU accession of regional countries, and pursue a simultaneous strategy of engagement with and division of Serbia, aiming to weaken Russia's regional influence. Russia, in turn, has actively leveraged Serbia as a strategic foothold to counter U.S. and EU sanctions and pressures. The geopolitical competition among the U.S., EU, and Russia in the Western Balkans reveals three new features: the spillover of security issues, the emergence of discourse competition as a focal point, and significant cross-regional linkages. Overall, the intensification of geopolitical rivalry will accelerate the fragmentation of diplomatic attitudes in the region, with most states facing pressure to lean towards the U.S. and EU. This shift introduces new challenges for China's cooperation with these countries. However, differences in how the U.S. and EU position themselves toward China, as well as the positive attitude and economic needs of Western Balkan countries towards China, offer potential opportunities for further cooperation.

Key words: Western Balkans, geopolitics, U.S.-Russia relations, EU-Russia relations, Ukraine crisis

摘要：

2022年乌克兰危机全面升级以来，地处乌克兰侧翼的西巴尔干地区在地缘政治态势上发生了变化，从美国、欧盟以及俄罗斯三方的“联系桥梁”过渡为“博弈区域”。美、欧对西巴尔干政策的变化保持紧密同步，体现为强势维持所谓的地区稳定、加快地区国家加入欧盟的进程以及对塞尔维亚的拉拢与分化并行，并试图削弱俄罗斯在该地区的影响力。俄罗斯积极通过塞尔维亚这一战略支点抗衡美欧的制裁和打压。美欧俄在西巴尔干的地缘博弈中呈现安全博弈议题外溢、话语博弈成为焦点、跨区域联动显著3个新型特征。总体而言，西巴尔干地缘博弈的激化将加速地区国家态度立场的分化，美欧要求“选边站”的压力将迫使多数国家向其靠拢，为中国与该地区国家的合作带来更多挑战。不过，美欧对华定位的差异、西巴尔干国家对华的良好态度和经济需求将为中国与该地区国家的合作提供机遇。

关键词: 西巴尔干, 地缘政治, 美俄关系, 欧俄关系, 乌克兰危机