Abstract:

From a geo-economic perspective, with the help of the theory of marginal effects in economics and mathematical analysis methods to construct an econometric model, this paper explored the evolutionary characteristics and trends of the moderate spatial scale of countries globally. The results show that: ① From 1990 to 2020, economic globalization expands overall global economic efficiency and increases the costs of spatial expansion. The evolutionary trends of countries' moderate spatial scale are relatively consistent, while the optimal moderate spatial scale of countries tends to decrease. ② In the case of the Group of Twenty (G20), the evolution of the moderate spatial scale of countries shows three trends, namely, a sharp decline followed by a slow decrease, a sharp increase followed by a slow increase, and a decline followed by an increase, diverging into two evolutionary phases, namely, the phase of the bipolar world order and the multi-polar world order. ③ The importance of the spatial scales of countries has declined, and industrial division of labor has become an important driver for achieving national economic development. The overall global economic order will remain stable in the long term, and economic disparities between countries will gradually diminish.

Key words: geo-economics, moderate spatial scale, marginal expansion effect, spatio-temporal evolution, global

摘要：

从地缘经济视角出发，借助经济学边际效应理论和数学分析方法构建计量模型，探讨全球国家适度空间规模演化特征与趋势。结果表明：①1990年至2020年，经济全球化扩大了全球整体经济效益，并增加了空间规模扩张成本，国家适度空间规模演化趋势相对一致，最佳国家适度空间规模趋于减小；②以二十国集团为例，国家适度空间规模演化呈现骤降缓减、骤升缓增、先降后升3种趋势，并分异为两极格局和多极化发展两个演化阶段；③国家空间规模对经济发展的重要性有所下降，产业分工成为实现国家经济发展的重要动力。全球经济秩序整体长期维持稳定，国家间经济差距将逐渐减小。

关键词: 地缘经济, 适度空间规模, 边际扩张效应, 时空演化, 全球