Abstract:

Analyzing the evolution characteristics and key influencing factors of the spatial pattern of the United States at the national scale provides an experiential reference for the improvement of China's territorial spatial planning system in the new era. The results show that: (1) Urban expansion, agricultural production, water ecological protection, and bare land management are the main trends in the evolution of the spatial pattern of the United States from 2001 to 2019. Especially, large-scale and high-growth urban expansion is still a prominent feature of the United States, where the urban area has remained at 8.80% for nearly 20 years. At the same time, agricultural production efficiency in spatial areas has significantly increased. (2) Unlike the final evolution result of the rapid expansion of urban areas, the large-scale mutual transformation between agricultural and ecological spaces is the dominant transformation characteristic within the spatial pattern of the United States. A profound spatial layout adjustment is taking place between "cropland-animal husbandry-forestry". While promoting agricultural expansion and improving production efficiency, land management and ecological environment optimization, it has also led to large-scale loss of green space. (3) Geographical conditions, infrastructure construction, land development policies, natural disasters, and regional basic characteristics are the dominant driving factors of the spatial evolution of the United States in the past 20 years. At the same time, changes in hydroclimate conditions such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity have played a key promoting role. Population, economy, and industry have only had a partial impact on the internal development space of urban areas, and have not had a significant impact on the overall spatial changes of the United States. Based on the above conclusions, the article proposes the following suggestions: pay attention to the dynamic impact of long-term climate change on the spatial layout of agriculture and ecology; focus on the differences in the allocation of parameters for urban spatial expansion among different levels and regions; prevent the degradation of agricultural space in traditional grain-producing areas, and construct policies and suggestions for the elastic connection path between bare land management, major land projects, and the territorial spatial planning system.

Key words: territorial space, spatio-temporal evolution, territorial spatial planning, Chinese-Style Modernization, the United States

摘要：

从国家尺度解析美国国土空间演化特征及关键影响要素，为完善新时期国土空间规划体系提供经验参考，结果表明：（1）城镇扩张、农业生产、水生态保护和裸土地治理是2001—2019年美国国土空间演化的主要态势，尤其是大规模、高增幅的城镇扩张仍然是全美的突出特征；近20年全美仍保持着8.80%的城镇发展空间增幅，同时农业空间生产效率大幅提升。（2）不同于城镇剧烈扩张的演化结果，农业与生态空间的大规模相互转换是美国国土空间内部的主要转换特征。“耕-畜-林”之间的空间布局正在进行深刻的调整，虽然这促进了农业扩张及生产效率提高、裸地治理与生态环境优化，但是也导致了大规模绿色生态空间流失。（3）地理条件、基础设施建设、国土开发政策、自然灾害及区域基本特征是美国国土空间演化的主导驱动因素，降水、气温及湿度等水文气候条件的变化发挥了关键的促进作用。相比之下，人口、经济和产业等因素主要在城镇发展空间内部产生局部影响，并未对美国整体的国土空间变化产生显著影响。基于上述结论，本文提出：重视长时序气候变化对农业空间、生态空间布局的动态影响；关注不同等级、不同地区间城镇空间新增规模参数分配的差异；预防传统粮食主产区农业空间退化，构建裸地治理、重大土地工程与国土空间规划体系的弹性衔接路径。

关键词: 国土空间, 时空演化, 国土空间规划, 中国式现代化, 美国