The study on the international competitiveness of Saudi Arabia's crude oil export since the 21st century

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.06.20240129

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the four indicators of international market share, market penetration, revealed comparative advantage index and export contribution rate, a comprehensive evaluation index system for the international competitiveness of Saudi Arabia's crude oil export is constructed from 2000 to 2021 by applying the entropy method, and then the changes of the primary factor are analyzed by applying the factor contribution model. The results show that:①Over the past two decades, the comprehensive competitiveness of Saudi Arabia's crude oil export has shown fluctuating changes with small amplitude and large frequency, with diminishing stability.②The international competitiveness is mainly affected by the international crude oil supply and demand situation. Before 2014, international supply and demand for crude oil due to geopolitical factors were the key factors dominating changes in Saudi's competitiveness, but Saudi Arabia had a strong control and dominant role in the global energy market. After 2015, with the intensification of competition in the global energy market and the energy transition, Saudi Arabia's energy power continued to weaken, and the competitiveness of crude oil export also decreased significantly.③ In the long term, there is a downward trend in all four indicators; in the short term, the values for international market share and market penetration are expected to increase. ④Each of the primary factor has had a negative impact on overall competitiveness at different times. The revealed comparative advantage and the export contribution rate show a downward trend, which have made a large contribution, limiting the growth of competitiveness. And the two indicators of market share have the potential to be a source of growth for overall competitiveness. Finally, suggestions are put forward for the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China.

Key words: international competitiveness, crude oil export, evaluation index system, entropy method, factor contribution method, Saudi Arabia

摘要：

基于国际市场占有率、市场渗透率、显示性比较优势指数、出口贡献率4个指标，构建沙特阿拉伯原油出口国际竞争力综合评价指标体系，运用熵值法分析沙特2000—2021年原油出口国际竞争力的变化特征，并运用因子贡献度模型解释其影响因子的首位度变化。结果表明：①20年来，沙特原油出口综合竞争力呈现幅度小、频率大的波动变化，且稳定性逐渐减弱。②竞争力主要受国际原油供需状况的影响。2014年前，地缘政治因素引起的国际原油供需变化是主导沙特竞争力变化的关键因素，但沙特仍对全球能源市场具有极强的控制与主导作用；2015年后，随着全球能源市场竞争的加剧和能源转型的推进，沙特的能源权力持续减弱，原油出口竞争力也显著下降。③从长远来看，4项指标均存在下降趋势；短期内，国际市场占有率和市场渗透率有望提升。④不同时期各首要因子均对综合竞争力产生了负面影响，贡献度较大的显示性比较优势和出口贡献率的下滑限制了竞争力的增长，而市场份额的两项指标有可能成为综合竞争力的增长点。最后，针对沙特与中国的合作提出建议。

关键词: 原油出口, 国际竞争力, 评价指标体系, 熵值法, 因子贡献度法, 沙特阿拉伯

Jiamin QIU, Yuan ZHAO, Xinyi MENG. The study on the international competitiveness of Saudi Arabia's crude oil export since the 21^st century[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(6): 16-28.

邱佳敏, 赵媛, 孟欣怡. 21世纪以来沙特阿拉伯原油出口的国际竞争力研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(6): 16-28.

Figures/Tables 6

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目标层	准则层	代码	指标层	指标说明
国际竞争力	市场占有率	M1	国际市场占有率/%	一国家某种产品的出口总额占全球该类产品出口总额的比例。反映该国家该产品出口的国际竞争力或竞争地位及其变化
	市场占有率	M2	市场渗透率/%	一国出口某商品到目标市场国的出口贸易总额与目标市场国该类商品的进口总额占比。表示该国该商品在目标市场国的竞争能力
	出口所占比例	P1	显示性比较优势	某产业在一国出口中的占比与全球贸易中该产业在全球贸易总额占比的比值。衡量该国该产品的出口水平与世界该类产品的平均出口水平相比较的相对优势和竞争力水平
	出口所占比例	P2	出口贡献率/%	一国某产品的出口贸易额占该国出口贸易额的比例。反映该产品的出口对该国总出口的贡献能力

目标层	准则层	代码	指标层	指标说明
国际竞争力	市场占有率	M1	国际市场占有率/%	一国家某种产品的出口总额占全球该类产品出口总额的比例。反映该国家该产品出口的国际竞争力或竞争地位及其变化
	市场占有率	M2	市场渗透率/%	一国出口某商品到目标市场国的出口贸易总额与目标市场国该类商品的进口总额占比。表示该国该商品在目标市场国的竞争能力
	出口所占比例	P1	显示性比较优势	某产业在一国出口中的占比与全球贸易中该产业在全球贸易总额占比的比值。衡量该国该产品的出口水平与世界该类产品的平均出口水平相比较的相对优势和竞争力水平
	出口所占比例	P2	出口贡献率/%	一国某产品的出口贸易额占该国出口贸易额的比例。反映该产品的出口对该国总出口的贡献能力

年份	国际市场占有率	市场渗透率	显示性比较优势指数	出口贡献率
2000年	16.12%	22.85%	11.87	68.06%
2005年	16.84%	24.64%	9.65	68.10%
2010年	16.14%	24.00%	8.79	68.20%
2015年	17.26%	25.48%	11.25	54.69%
2021年	15.10%	25.24%	11.90	53.91%

年份	国际市场占有率	市场渗透率	显示性比较优势指数	出口贡献率
2000年	16.12%	22.85%	11.87	68.06%
2005年	16.84%	24.64%	9.65	68.10%
2010年	16.14%	24.00%	8.79	68.20%
2015年	17.26%	25.48%	11.25	54.69%
2021年	15.10%	25.24%	11.90	53.91%

国家	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2021年
中国	8.16%	17.49%	18.66%	15.07%	17.07%
美国	15.01%	13.43%	11.34%	14.78%	5.86%
印度	24.66%	21.90%	17.94%	19.74%	16.02%
韩国	31.75%	31.03%	33.60%	30.27%	31.40%
日本	25.33%	30.56%	30.86%	35.49%	39.88%