Trade efficiency and potential between China and Belarus under the Belt and Road Initiative: Based on Social Network Analysis and the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.07.20240219

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the trade relationship, efficiency, and potential between China and Belarus is of great significance for fostering a robust trade partnership between the two countries. Based on global trade data from 2000 to 2022, this paper employs social network analysis to examine the structural characteristics of the "Belt and Road" trade network, revealing the dynamic evolution of China and Belarus's positions within the network. The study also utilizes a stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the trade efficiency and potential between China and Belarus. The findings indicate that from 2000 to 2022, the position of China and Belarus in the "Belt and Road" trade network has shifted, with the trade connection between the two countries gradually strengthening, though room for improvement remains. China's core position in the trade network has steadily increased, while Belarus's influence has declined. The trade efficiency between China and Belarus is influenced by various factors: the GDP and population of other countries and shared borders promote trade efficiency, while the population and distance between the two countries decrease it. The trade inefficiency model suggests that the level of goods trade, natural resources, internet development, infrastructure, and government efficiency contribute to boosting China-Belarus trade, whereas tariffs and World Trade Organization membership may hinder trade development. During the sample period, China and Belarus's export efficiency, bilateral trade efficiency, and potential have all increased, but import efficiency has declined annually.

Key words: Belarus, the Belt and Road Initiative, social network analysis, stochastic frontier gravity model, trade efficiency, potential

摘要：

探究中国与白俄罗斯的贸易关系、效率与潜力，对营造两国间的良好关系意义非凡。基于2000—2022年世界贸易数据，本文采用社会网络分析法考察“一带一路”贸易网络的结构特征，揭示中白两国在网络中的地位动态演化，并采用随机前沿引力模型测算中白两国的贸易效率及潜力空间。研究发现，2000—2022年，中白两国在“一带一路”贸易网络中的板块位置发生变化，两国的贸易联系逐步加强，但仍存在提升空间。中国在贸易网络中的核心地位逐渐提升，而白俄罗斯的影响力有所下降。中白之间的贸易效率受到多种因素的影响，其中，其他国家的GDP和人口、是否接壤等因素与贸易效率呈正相关关系，而两国自身的人口和距离则与贸易效率呈负相关关系。贸易非效率模型结果指出，商品贸易程度、自然资源、互联网发展、基础设施和政府效率与贸易效率呈正相关关系，而关税和是否加入世贸组织则与贸易效率呈负相关关系。样本期间中白两国的出口效率、双边贸易效率和潜力均在增加，但进口效率逐年下降。

关键词: 白俄罗斯, “一带一路”倡议, 社会网络分析, 随机前沿引力模型, 贸易效率, 潜力

Yuan WANG, Jusheng LIU, Zhiping QIU, Xin LI. Trade efficiency and potential between China and Belarus under the Belt and Road Initiative: Based on Social Network Analysis and the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(7): 29-42.

王苑, 刘举胜, 邱志萍, 李新. “一带一路”背景下中国与白俄罗斯贸易效率及潜力研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(7): 29-42.

Figures/Tables 12

References 40

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变量	变量说明	基本假定	数据来源	属性
GDP_it /GDP_jt	t时期出口/进口国的国内生产总值	值越大，表明该国的经济规模体量大，贸易规模较大	WorldBank数据库	+
POP_it /POP_jt	t时期出口/进口国的人口	人口越多，表明该国的商品贸易需求越多，贸易规模就越大	WorldBank数据库	+
DIS_ij	i国和j国的地理空间距离：两国首都的直线距离	值越大，表明运输成本越高，阻碍贸易发展	GEOBYTES网站	－
CON_ij	i国和j国是否接壤	若接壤，其值=1；否则值为0	GEOBYTES网站	+/－
贸易非效率模型
TRA_ijt	商品贸易程度：商品贸易值占GDP的比重	值越高表明商品贸易越发达，促进贸易发展	WorldBank数据库	－
TAF_jt	关税水平：指对所有贸易商品计算的所有产品有效实施税率的未加权平均值	值越高，企业成本增加，阻碍外贸发展	TRAINS数据库、WTO数据库（IDB）、合并关税表（CTS）数据库	+
INT_jt	互联网发展水平：使用互联网的人口占比	值越高，将促进跨境电子商务等贸易的发展	（ITU）ICT指标数据库	－
IF_jt	贸易和运输相关基础设施：专业人士对这些设施的评分	值越高意味着国家间交通基础设施的完善，促进贸易发展	世界银行与其他学术机构合作开展的物流绩效指数调查	－
GSE_jt	政府效率：企业、居民等受访者对政府效率的评分	政府可推动两国间的贸易洽谈，优化两国企业的审批流程等，促进贸易发展	WGI数据库	－
GAT_jt /WTO_jt	关贸总协定/WTO	若加入GATT/WTO则为1，促使成员国降低关税、取消配额限制等，促进贸易增长；否则为0，阻碍贸易	WTO官网	+/－

变量	变量说明	基本假定	数据来源	属性
GDP_it /GDP_jt	t时期出口/进口国的国内生产总值	值越大，表明该国的经济规模体量大，贸易规模较大	WorldBank数据库	+
POP_it /POP_jt	t时期出口/进口国的人口	人口越多，表明该国的商品贸易需求越多，贸易规模就越大	WorldBank数据库	+
DIS_ij	i国和j国的地理空间距离：两国首都的直线距离	值越大，表明运输成本越高，阻碍贸易发展	GEOBYTES网站	－
CON_ij	i国和j国是否接壤	若接壤，其值=1；否则值为0	GEOBYTES网站	+/－
贸易非效率模型
TRA_ijt	商品贸易程度：商品贸易值占GDP的比重	值越高表明商品贸易越发达，促进贸易发展	WorldBank数据库	－
TAF_jt	关税水平：指对所有贸易商品计算的所有产品有效实施税率的未加权平均值	值越高，企业成本增加，阻碍外贸发展	TRAINS数据库、WTO数据库（IDB）、合并关税表（CTS）数据库	+
INT_jt	互联网发展水平：使用互联网的人口占比	值越高，将促进跨境电子商务等贸易的发展	（ITU）ICT指标数据库	－
IF_jt	贸易和运输相关基础设施：专业人士对这些设施的评分	值越高意味着国家间交通基础设施的完善，促进贸易发展	世界银行与其他学术机构合作开展的物流绩效指数调查	－
GSE_jt	政府效率：企业、居民等受访者对政府效率的评分	政府可推动两国间的贸易洽谈，优化两国企业的审批流程等，促进贸易发展	WGI数据库	－
GAT_jt /WTO_jt	关贸总协定/WTO	若加入GATT/WTO则为1，促使成员国降低关税、取消配额限制等，促进贸易增长；否则为0，阻碍贸易	WTO官网	+/－

2000年	子群2	子群3	子群4	2022年	子群2	子群3	子群4
子群1	0.000	0.000	0.000	子群1	0.000	0.000	0.000
子群2	0.192	0.044	0.107	子群2	0.432	0.097	0.138
子群3	0.044	0.041	0.498	子群3	0.097	0.016	0.050
子群4	0.107	0.498	0.800	子群4	0.138	0.050	0.163

2000年	子群2	子群3	子群4	2022年	子群2	子群3	子群4
子群1	0.000	0.000	0.000	子群1	0.000	0.000	0.000
子群2	0.192	0.044	0.107	子群2	0.432	0.097	0.138
子群3	0.044	0.041	0.498	子群3	0.097	0.016	0.050
子群4	0.107	0.498	0.800	子群4	0.138	0.050	0.163

2000年			2022年			变化量
排名	国家	中心性	排名	国家	中心性	变化量
第1	俄罗斯	0.569	第1	中国	0.800	0.246
第2	中国	0.554	第2	土耳其	0.508	0.108
第3	新加坡	0.446	第3	印度	0.400	0.000
第4	泰国	0.415	第4	俄罗斯	0.385	－0.184
第5	土耳其	0.400	第5	波兰	0.369	0.092
第6	印度	0.400	第6	新加坡	0.262	－0.184
第34	白俄罗斯	0.077	第36	白俄罗斯	0.046	－0.031