Abstract:

Promoting regional trade cooperation in digital products is an important way to build the Digital Silk Road and achieve high-quality development under the Belt and Road Initiative. From the perspective of social networks, this paper investigates the evolution and influencing factors of the digital product trade preference network among the "Belt and Road" countries. The results show that the digital product trade preference network presents a "core-periphery" structure. The East Asian communities, the West Asian and the Eastern European communities play two-way spillover roles in the network, while the African South Asian communities and the Latin American communities play net beneficiary roles in the network. The status of China in the network is constantly improving, the ranking of each centrality index has been greatly improved, and the network position has moved from the edge to the core. TERGM model regression results show that the trade preference network has a reciprocity effect, rank effect and time dependence effect, and the network is affected by both endogenous structure and exogenous factors. Using SAOM to analyze the relative importance of influencing factors, we find that endogenous mechanisms are very important to the evolution of trade preference networks.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, digital products, revealed trade preference index, network communities, mechanism of evolution

摘要：

区域数字产品贸易合作是建设“数字丝绸之路”和实现“一带一路”倡议高质量发展的重要途径。本文从社会网络视角出发，探讨了“一带一路”沿线数字产品贸易偏好网络的内生演化机制。研究表明：“一带一路”沿线数字产品贸易偏好网络呈现“中心-边缘”结构；东亚社群和西亚东欧社群在网络中扮演双向溢出角色，非洲南亚社群和拉丁美洲社群在网络中扮演净受益角色；中国在网络中的地位不断提升，各项中心性指标排名均有大幅提升，网络位置由边缘向核心圈移动。时间随机指数图模型（TERGM）估计结果表明，贸易偏好网络具有互惠效应、等级效应、时间依赖效应，网络受内生结构因素与外生因素共同影响。随机行动者模型（SAOM）结果显示，内生机制对贸易偏好网络的演化十分重要。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 数字产品, 显示性贸易偏好指数, 网络社群, 演化机制