Research on the spatiotemporal evolution of China's influence along the Belt and Road from the receiver's perspective

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.07.20240252

Abstract

Abstract:

As an advocate and promoter, it is of great significance to assess and analyze China's influence along B&R for promoting the joint construction of B&R and maintaining regional stability and development. The receiver's perspective focuses on the feedback of the information receiver, which can reflect the scope and degree of influence more objectively and effectively. Based on the receiver's perspective, this study constructed a model of the national influence evaluation system, used GDELT news events and Google Trends data for quantitative measurement, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China's influence along B&R from 2016 to 2022, and explored the evolution mechanism of China's influence by focusing on the transformation process of "national power-national influence".The results show that: ① During the study period, China's overall influence along B&R has shown a slight fluctuation and downward trend, with an average annual decline rate of 5%, and has gone through three stages: overall stability, rapid decline, and local rebound. ② China's influence showed a spatial pattern of distance decay, forming a "core-periphery" structure, while the high-value countries in the local region showed a belt-like and point-like distribution. ③ The spatiotemporal evolution of national influence is driven by both static national power and dynamic interactions between countries. National power is the supporting factor for the formation of national influence, the interaction forms between countries are the intermediary factors for the transformation of national power into national influence, and the interaction skills as well as multidimensional distance between countries are moderating factors. ④ The enhancement of China's influence lags behind the growth of national power. Although there have been certain improvements in soft power, interaction forms, and interaction skills, there is still great potential for improvement.

Key words: national influence, the Belt and Road, receiver's perspective, big data, GDELT

摘要：

解析和评估作为倡导者与推动者的中国在“一带一路”共建地区的影响力，对于推动共建“一带一路”、维护区域稳定与发展具有重要意义。受众视角侧重于信息接收者的反馈，可更为客观、有效地反映影响力的范围与程度。基于受众视角构建国家影响力评估体系模型，采用GDELT新闻事件与谷歌趋势数据进行量化测算，分析2016—2022年间中国在“一带一路”共建地区影响力的时空演变特征，并围绕“国家实力-国家影响力”转化过程探析中国影响力的演变机制。结果表明：①研究期内，中国影响力整体呈小幅波动并逐渐下降趋势，年均下降5%，且经历了整体平稳、迅速下降、局部回升3个阶段；②中国影响力在空间上整体符合距离衰减规律，形成了“核心-边缘”结构，而局部区域高值国家分别呈现出带状与点状分布；③国家影响力的时空演变是静态的国家实力与动态的国家间交互共同作用的结果。国家实力是国家影响力形成的支撑因素，国家间交互形式是国家实力转化为国家影响力的中介因素，交互技巧以及多维距离为调节因素；④中国影响力的提升滞后于国家实力的增长，尽管在软实力、交互形式、交互技巧等方面有所改善，但仍有较大的提升潜力。

关键词: 国家影响力, “一带一路”, 受众视角, 大数据, GDELT

Yu ZHANG, Lin LIU, Zhengyong ZHANG, Yu CAO, Xinyi LIU. Research on the spatiotemporal evolution of China's influence along the Belt and Road from the receiver's perspective[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(7): 1-15.

张玉, 刘琳, 张正勇, 曹宇, 刘欣怡. 受众视角下中国在“一带一路”共建地区影响力的时空演变研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(7): 1-15.

Figures/Tables 10

Tab.1 The countries in the study area

大洲	国家
亚洲	阿联酋、阿富汗、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、孟加拉国、巴林、巴勒斯坦、文莱、塞浦路斯、格鲁吉亚、印度尼西亚、伊拉克、伊朗、吉尔吉斯斯坦、柬埔寨、韩国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、黎巴嫩、斯里兰卡、缅甸、蒙古、马尔代夫、马来西亚、尼泊尔、阿曼、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、新加坡、叙利亚、泰国、塔吉克斯坦、东帝汶、土库曼斯坦、土耳其、乌兹别克斯坦、越南、也门
欧洲	阿尔巴尼亚、奥地利、波黑、保加利亚、白俄罗斯、捷克、爱沙尼亚、希腊、克罗地亚、匈牙利、意大利、立陶宛、卢森堡、拉脱维亚、摩尔多瓦、黑山、北马其顿、马耳他、波兰、葡萄牙、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、俄罗斯、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、乌克兰
大洋洲	库克群岛、斐济、密克罗尼西亚、基里巴斯、纽埃、新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、所罗门群岛、汤加、瓦努阿图、萨摩亚
非洲	安哥拉、布基纳法索、布隆迪、贝宁、博茨瓦纳、刚果民主共和国、中非、刚果、科特迪瓦、喀麦隆、赤道几内亚、佛得角、吉布提、阿尔及利亚、埃及、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、加蓬、加纳、冈比亚、几内亚、几内亚比绍、肯尼亚、科摩罗、利比里亚、莱索托、利比亚、摩洛哥、马达加斯加、马里、毛里塔尼亚、马拉维、莫桑比克、纳米比亚、尼日尔、尼日利亚、卢旺达、塞舌尔、苏丹、塞拉利昂、塞内加尔、索马里、南苏丹、圣多美和普林西比、乍得、多哥、突尼斯、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、南非、赞比亚、津巴布韦
美洲	阿根廷、玻利维亚、智利、厄瓜多尔、圭亚那、秘鲁、苏里南、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、安提瓜和巴布达、巴巴多斯、哥斯达黎加、古巴、多米尼克、多米尼加、萨尔瓦多、格林纳达、牙买加、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、特立尼达和多巴哥

Tab.1 The countries in the study area

大洲	国家
亚洲	阿联酋、阿富汗、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、孟加拉国、巴林、巴勒斯坦、文莱、塞浦路斯、格鲁吉亚、印度尼西亚、伊拉克、伊朗、吉尔吉斯斯坦、柬埔寨、韩国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、黎巴嫩、斯里兰卡、缅甸、蒙古、马尔代夫、马来西亚、尼泊尔、阿曼、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、新加坡、叙利亚、泰国、塔吉克斯坦、东帝汶、土库曼斯坦、土耳其、乌兹别克斯坦、越南、也门
欧洲	阿尔巴尼亚、奥地利、波黑、保加利亚、白俄罗斯、捷克、爱沙尼亚、希腊、克罗地亚、匈牙利、意大利、立陶宛、卢森堡、拉脱维亚、摩尔多瓦、黑山、北马其顿、马耳他、波兰、葡萄牙、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、俄罗斯、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、乌克兰
大洋洲	库克群岛、斐济、密克罗尼西亚、基里巴斯、纽埃、新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、所罗门群岛、汤加、瓦努阿图、萨摩亚
非洲	安哥拉、布基纳法索、布隆迪、贝宁、博茨瓦纳、刚果民主共和国、中非、刚果、科特迪瓦、喀麦隆、赤道几内亚、佛得角、吉布提、阿尔及利亚、埃及、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、加蓬、加纳、冈比亚、几内亚、几内亚比绍、肯尼亚、科摩罗、利比里亚、莱索托、利比亚、摩洛哥、马达加斯加、马里、毛里塔尼亚、马拉维、莫桑比克、纳米比亚、尼日尔、尼日利亚、卢旺达、塞舌尔、苏丹、塞拉利昂、塞内加尔、索马里、南苏丹、圣多美和普林西比、乍得、多哥、突尼斯、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、南非、赞比亚、津巴布韦
美洲	阿根廷、玻利维亚、智利、厄瓜多尔、圭亚那、秘鲁、苏里南、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、安提瓜和巴布达、巴巴多斯、哥斯达黎加、古巴、多米尼克、多米尼加、萨尔瓦多、格林纳达、牙买加、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、特立尼达和多巴哥

Tab.2 The evaluation indicators system of national influence

维度	指标	内涵
广度	辐射力	受众国对主体国的关注程度
深度	入度中心度	受众国眼中主体国在国际上被关注程度
	出度中心度	受众国眼中主体国对于国际事务的参与度
	亲和力	受众国对主体国的认同程度
	引导力	受众国与主体国的合作程度
	吸引力	主体国对受众国民众的吸引程度

Tab.3 The measurement methods of the evaluation indicators of national influence

指标	测算方法	公式	权重
辐射力	中国作为角色1或角色2的新闻数量 $R 1$ 占新闻总量 $R a l l$ 的比例	$R = R 1 / R a l l$	0.177
入度中心度	中国作为角色2时角色1的数量 $C 1$ 占角色总量 $C a l l$ 的比例	$C i n = C 1 / C a l l$	0.185
出度中心度	中国作为角色1时角色2的数量 $C 2$ 占角色总量 $C a l l$ 的比例	$C o u t = C 2 / C a l l$	0.185
亲和力	中国作为角色1或角色2的所有新闻报道的AvgTone字段平均值	$T = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n A v g T o n e i$	0.023
引导力	QuadClass字段值为合作的新闻数量 $G 1$ 占新闻总量 $G a l l$ 的比例	$G = G 1 / G a l l$	0.112
吸引力	中国旅游( $A 1$ )、中国留学( $A 2$ )、中文学习( $A 3$ )3个关键词翻译成官方语言后在受众国的谷歌趋势数据之和	$A = ∑ i = 1 n (A 1 i + A 2 i + A 3 i)$	0.317

Tab.3 The measurement methods of the evaluation indicators of national influence

指标	测算方法	公式	权重
辐射力	中国作为角色1或角色2的新闻数量 $R 1$ 占新闻总量 $R a l l$ 的比例	$R = R 1 / R a l l$	0.177
入度中心度	中国作为角色2时角色1的数量 $C 1$ 占角色总量 $C a l l$ 的比例	$C i n = C 1 / C a l l$	0.185
出度中心度	中国作为角色1时角色2的数量 $C 2$ 占角色总量 $C a l l$ 的比例	$C o u t = C 2 / C a l l$	0.185
亲和力	中国作为角色1或角色2的所有新闻报道的AvgTone字段平均值	$T = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n A v g T o n e i$	0.023
引导力	QuadClass字段值为合作的新闻数量 $G 1$ 占新闻总量 $G a l l$ 的比例	$G = G 1 / G a l l$	0.112
吸引力	中国旅游( $A 1$ )、中国留学( $A 2$ )、中文学习( $A 3$ )3个关键词翻译成官方语言后在受众国的谷歌趋势数据之和	$A = ∑ i = 1 n (A 1 i + A 2 i + A 3 i)$	0.317

Fig.1 The evolution of China's influence in the countries along the Belt and Road from 2016 to 2022

Tab.4 The correlation between China's influence and multi-dimensional distance

影响力	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年
地理距离	－0.42	－0.48	－0.46	－0.46	－0.47	－0.47	－0.48
经济距离	－0.60	－0.54	－0.53	－0.58	－0.58	－0.58	－0.56
文化距离	－0.35	－0.43	－0.42	－0.43	－0.43	－0.46	－0.50

Fig.2 The evolution of spatial pattern of China's influence in the countries along the Belt and Road

Fig.3 The changes in the level of China's influence in the countries along the Belt and Road from 2016 to 2022

Fig.4 The schematic diagram of the evolution mechanism of national influence

Fig.5 The comparison of indicators of overall influence of China and other major countries along the Belt and Road

Fig.6 The comparison of China’s influence in different studies

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