The social embeddedness measurement and comparison of trade between China and Belt and Road countries

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.08.20240556

Abstract

Abstract:

Adopting the classical analytical framework and research methodology of social embeddedness theory, the multilevel and mixed-effects model is constructed in five regions, using the economic geography-related indicators as the layer 1 variables, and the structural, cognitive, political, cultural and relational embeddedness as the layer 2 variables, measuring and comparing the types of social embeddedness between China and different regions along the Belt and Road. The results show that： ① The impact intensity of social factors on trade between China and the Belt and Road countries is higher than that of economic factors. Among them， structural and relational embeddedness will directly promote trade， cognitive embeddedness will directly inhibit trade， political and cultural embeddedness will not have a direct impact on trade. In addition to the direct impact， all five social embeddedness variables have an indirect impact on trade through the economic factors； ② The social embeddedness between China and five regions along the Belt and Road can be categorized into four types: The relationship-determined type(Southeast Asian), the structurally-determined type(Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe), the structurally-dominated type(West Asia and North Africa), and the synergistic type(South Asia). Accordingly, it is suggested that when formulating trade policies for the Belt and Road, the impact of structural and relational embeddedness should be taken into account, and regional policies should be differentiated according to the type of social embeddedness.

Key words: The Belt and Road Initiative, international trade, social embeddedness, multilevel and mixed-effects model

摘要：

采用社会嵌入理论的经典分析框架和研究方法，以经济地理相关指标为层一变量，结构、认知、政治、文化和关系嵌入为层二变量，分五大区域构建多层次混合效应模型，测度与对比中国与“一带一路”共建区域形成的社会嵌入类型。研究结果表明：①相比经济因子，社会因子对中国与“一带一路”共建国家贸易的影响强度更高。其中，结构嵌入和关系嵌入直接促进贸易，认知嵌入直接抑制贸易，政治和文化嵌入则不会对贸易产生直接影响。另外，5个社会嵌入变量均通过经济因子对贸易产生间接影响；②中国与“一带一路”沿线五大区域形成4种社会嵌入类型：东南亚的关系决定型、中亚和中东欧的结构决定型、西亚和北非的结构主导型以及南亚的协同作用型。据此建议，在制定“一带一路”相关贸易政策时，需着重考虑结构和关系嵌入的影响，并根据社会嵌入类型，制定差异化的区域投资和合作政策。

关键词: “一带一路”, 国际贸易, 社会嵌入, 多层次混合效应模型

Li HUANG, Xiaorui SUN. The social embeddedness measurement and comparison of trade between China and Belt and Road countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(8): 17-28.

黄丽, 孙晓睿. 中国与“一带一路”共建国家贸易的社会嵌入测度与对比[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(8): 17-28.

Figures/Tables 11

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区域名称	国家
东南亚	印度尼西亚、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱、新加坡、泰国、越南、缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝、东帝汶
西亚北非	伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、巴勒斯坦、叙利亚、也门、埃及、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚
南亚	尼泊尔、不丹、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、阿富汗
中亚	吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦
中东欧	捷克、匈牙利、波兰、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、波黑、黑山、北马其顿、俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦

区域名称	国家
东南亚	印度尼西亚、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱、新加坡、泰国、越南、缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝、东帝汶
西亚北非	伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、巴勒斯坦、叙利亚、也门、埃及、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚
南亚	尼泊尔、不丹、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、阿富汗
中亚	吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦
中东欧	捷克、匈牙利、波兰、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、波黑、黑山、北马其顿、俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦

变量类型	变量名	代码	数据来源	备注
被解释变量	中国商品出口额	T	联合国商品贸易数据库	取对数
层一经济因子	对象国经济发展水平	GDP	世界银行数据库	取对数
	中国市场规模	GDP_CH	世界银行数据库	取对数
	地理距离	Dist	CEPII 数据库	取对数
	对象国劳动力水平	Labor	世界银行数据库	取对数
	对象国贸易条件	Oul	世界银行数据库	无
层二社会因子	结构嵌入	SE	联合国商品贸易数据库	无
	认识嵌入	COE	联合国商品贸易数据库	无
	政治嵌入	PE	世界银行数据库	无
	文化嵌入	CUE	Hofstede官网	无
	关系嵌入	RE	中国自由贸易区服务网	取对数

变量类型	变量名	代码	数据来源	备注
被解释变量	中国商品出口额	T	联合国商品贸易数据库	取对数
层一经济因子	对象国经济发展水平	GDP	世界银行数据库	取对数
	中国市场规模	GDP_CH	世界银行数据库	取对数
	地理距离	Dist	CEPII 数据库	取对数
	对象国劳动力水平	Labor	世界银行数据库	取对数
	对象国贸易条件	Oul	世界银行数据库	无
层二社会因子	结构嵌入	SE	联合国商品贸易数据库	无
	认识嵌入	COE	联合国商品贸易数据库	无
	政治嵌入	PE	世界银行数据库	无
	文化嵌入	CUE	Hofstede官网	无
	关系嵌入	RE	中国自由贸易区服务网	取对数

参数	东南亚	西亚北非	南亚	中亚	中东欧
ICC	0.424	0.640	0.612	0.561	0.692
标准误	0.114	0.079	0.125	0.166	0.070