Abstract:

In the new era of high-quality development, exploring whether the logistics low-carbon resilience system demonstrates green momentum stands as a key indicator for the logistics industry to advance toward sustainable development. From a resilience perspective, this study constructed a five-dimensional evaluation index system for China's logistics low-carbon resilience. It measured China's logistics low-carbon resilience values from 2010 to 2022 using the entropy weight method, explored spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics via kernel density estimation, Moran's I, and spatial Markov chains, measured spatial association intensity through a modified gravity model, and analyzed network structure characteristics and driving mechanisms using social network analysis.The results show that: ① China's logistics low-carbon resilience level continuously increases over time, with regional differences becoming increasingly significant year by year. ② China's logistics low-carbon resilience presents a pattern of high-resilience agglomeration areas centered on the eastern coast, radiating and driving surrounding regions. Both overall and local provinces generally exhibit agglomeration in logistics low-carbon resilience, though this agglomeration has weakened in recent years. ③The network structure shows good connectivity, with density values fluctuating downward, efficiency remaining at a high level, and hierarchy generally fluctuating upward. Among them, Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu serve as "central actors" in the network, and the attributes of each plate evolved noticeably during the observation period. ④Regarding driving mechanisms, differences in economic level, geographical proximity, consumption level, opening-up, and technological innovation promote the network structure, while differences in environmental quality exert a slight inhibitory effect. Core provinces should play the leading role of "growth poles," and provinces with spillover effects need to strengthen endogenous resilience momentum to achieve closer network structure development.

Key words: logistics low-carbon resilience, spatiotemporal differentiation, modified gravity model, social network, driving mechanism

摘要：

在高质量发展的新时期，物流低碳韧性系统能否彰显绿色动能，是物流业迈向可持续发展道路的重要标志。本文从韧性视角出发，构建了5个维度的中国物流低碳韧性评价指标体系，使用熵权法测度2010—2022年中国物流低碳韧性值，采用核密度估计、莫兰指数、空间Markov链探究其时空分异特征，进而借助修正引力模型测度空间关联强度，并运用社会网络分析探究其网络结构特征及驱动机制。结果如下：①中国物流低碳韧性水平随时间推移不断提高，且地域差异也逐年显著扩大。②我国物流低碳韧性呈现以东部沿海为核心的高韧性聚集区辐射带动周边的态势，整体和局部各省物流低碳韧性普遍存在集聚现象，但近几年集聚现象减弱。③网络结构的连通度较好，密度值呈波动下降趋势，效率维持在较高水平，等级度总体呈波动上升趋势。其中，北京、广东、浙江、上海、江苏是网络结构中的“中心行动者”，且观测期间各板块属性经历了明显的演变。④网络结构驱动机制方面，经济水平差异、地理邻近差异、消费水平差异、对外开放差异、技术创新差异具有推动作用，环境质量差异则有轻微抑制作用。核心省域应发挥“增长极”的带动作用，具有“溢出”效应的省域需壮大韧性内生动力，实现网络结构紧密化发展。

关键词: 物流低碳韧性, 时空分异, 修正引力模型, 社会网络, 驱动机制