Abstract:

Based on the perspective of the chip industry chain, by using the trade data of upper, middle and downstream products of the chip industry from 2000 to 2022, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of the global chip trade network and network node characteristics through complex social network analysis, and introduces the competition intensity index and interdependence index to explore the competition and cooperation relationship in the chip trade. The results show that: ① The upstream semiconductor silicon market has significant volatility and a high concentration of participants, the midstream integrated circuit market has steady growth, and the downstream electronic products are driven by scientific and technological innovation and market demand, showing vigorous vitality; ② From the perspective of the overall network characteristics of the chip, the downstream electronic computing and components have the largest scale and strongest connectivity, followed by the midstream integrated circuit, forming a solid support; Although the upstream semiconductor trade network is growing rapidly, the network connectivity is insufficient, which affects the efficiency of information flow and resource allocation, and needs to be optimized. ③ In terms of network node characteristics, it presents a dual situation of the stable central position of the traditional power and the rapid rise of the emerging power. While traditional powers maintain the centrality advantage, emerging economies such as China have significantly improved their export centrality, becoming an important intermediary for global resource flows. The network structure tends to be balanced, the core country group expands, and the rise of emerging forces such as the Netherlands and China promotes the diversified development of industrial competition pattern. ④ In terms of competition and cooperation relations, the global chip trade competition, especially between China and the United States and China and South Korea, tends to be white-hot, forming a "competition circle" with multiple competitive cores and closely intertwined, and the competition pattern has evolved from single-core to multi-core. At the same time, the degree of interdependence has increased significantly, the trade network has become closer, and the trade relations between China and other countries have changed from single dependence to diversified cooperation. The coexistence of "high competitiveness and high dependence" between China and the United States highlights the urgency and importance of seeking cooperation in the face of competition and properly handling trade frictions.

Key words: chip, trade networks, competition and cooperation relationship, social network analysis

摘要：

本研究基于产业链视角，运用2000—2022年芯片产业上、中、下游产品贸易数据，通过社会网络分析法剖析全球芯片贸易整体网络演化特征和网络节点特征，并引入竞争强度指数和相互依存指数探究芯片产业贸易中的竞合关系。研究发现：①芯片产业链不同环节的贸易呈现异速增长，上游半导体硅片市场波动性显著且参与者集中度高，中游集成电路市场稳健增长，而下游产品则受科技创新与市场需求双重驱动，展现出蓬勃活力；②从芯片整体网络特征来看，下游电子计算机及部件贸易网络规模最大、连通性最强，中游集成电路紧随其后，形成坚实支撑；上游半导体硅片贸易网络虽增长迅速，但其网络连通性不足，影响信息流通与资源配置效率，亟待优化；③从网络节点特征上看，呈现出传统强国稳固中心地位与新兴力量快速崛起的双重态势。传统强国保持中心性优势，而中国等新兴经济体则出口中心性显著提升，成为全球资源流动的重要中介。网络结构趋向均衡，核心国家（地区）群体扩容，荷兰、中国等新兴力量的崛起促进了产业竞争格局的多元化发展；④在竞合关系上，全球范围内尤其是中美、中韩之间的芯片贸易竞争趋于白热化，形成多个竞争核心及紧密交织的“竞争圈”，推动全球芯片贸易竞争格局从单核向多核演变。同时，相互依存度显著提升，贸易网络更加紧密，中国与其他国家（地区）的贸易关系从对单一国家或地区的依赖向多元合作转变。中美之间“高竞争性”与“高依存性”并存，凸显了在竞争中寻求合作与妥善处理贸易摩擦的紧迫性与重要性 。

关键词: 芯片, 贸易网络, 竞合关系, 社会网络分析