Abstract:

Based on the trade data released by ITC in 2001, 2007, 2013 and 2018, the global trade network for electronic information manufacturing industry network was constructed, and evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the global trade network for electronic information manufacturing were studied by using social network analysis method.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade volume of electronic information manufacturing industry increased significantly but the gross rate slowed down, and its trade area was highly concentrated and shifted to developing economies.There is no obvious trend of "multi-polarization".The trade relationship among network members is getting closer, the members in the front rank were basically stable but their overall status decline. The members of subgroups have changed, but no obvious factionalism phenomenon. There is an obvious "core + semi-periphery + periphery" structure in the network. Among them, the status of developed economies in the core and semi-periphery regions declined, while some economies in east and southeast Asia rose.Chinese mainland has occupied an important position in the network, but its central position still has much room for improvement, and a stable "circle of friends" has yet to be formed. (2) Gaps in Economic scale, technology, cultural, labor force, and land bordering have a significant positive impact on the global trade network for electronic information manufacturing industry, while geographical distance and the gap in LPI show a significant negative impact. The preference had only a small positive impact in 2018. And the institutional difference had no obvious effect. The results suggest that H-O Theory and the Technology Gap Theory have strong explanatory power to the characteristics of the global trade network for electronic information manufacturing industry, while the Demand Similarity Theory has limited explanatory power to the research results.

Key words: electronic information manufacturing industry, global trade network, influence factors, mechanism, SNA, Chinese mainland

摘要：

基于ITC公布的2001、2007、2013年和2018年贸易数据，构建全球电子信息制造业贸易网络，采用社会网络分析法研究全球电子信息制造业贸易网络的演化特征及影响因素。结果表明：（1）电子信息制造业贸易总量增幅较大但增速放缓，贸易地区高度集中且贸易重心向发展中经济体偏移，但未出现明显“多极化”趋势；网络成员间联系渐趋紧密，中心性位居前列的成员基本稳定但整体地位下降；子群内部成员变动较大，尚未出现明显的派系林立现象；网络存在核心-半边缘-边缘结构，核心区与半边缘区内发达经济体地位下降，东亚与东南亚部分经济体的地位上升；中国大陆在网络中已占据重要位置，但中心性仍有较大提升空间，且尚未形成稳定的“朋友圈”。（2）经济规模差异、技术差异、文化差异、劳动力数量差异、陆地接壤对电子信息制造业贸易网络具有较大程度的正向影响，地理距离与物流绩效差异显示较小程度的显著负向影响，需求差异近年来具有较小程度的显著正向影响，制度差异未产生明显的影响。研究结果显示要素禀赋理论与技术差距理论对全球电子信息制造业贸易网络特征有较好的解释力，需求相似理论的解释力比较有限，全球电子信息制造业贸易兼具产业内与产业间的贸易特性。

关键词: 电子信息制造业, 全球贸易网络, 影响因素, 机理, 社会网络, 中国大陆