Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the geo-relationship between China and the countries along

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.09.2021915

World Regional Studies ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 17-27.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.09.2021915

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Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the geo-relationship between China and the countries along "the Belt & Road"

Xinhuan ZHANG¹(), Xiaolei ZHANG²^,³(), Lu ZHANG⁴, Rongwei WU⁵, Chan ZHOU⁶

^1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
^2.Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
^3.College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^4.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
^5.School of Public Administration, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
^6.Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China

Received:2021-12-08 Revised:2022-02-08 Online:2023-09-15 Published:2023-09-25
Contact: Xiaolei ZHANG

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系时空演变特征

张新焕¹(), 张小雷²^,³(), 张璐⁴, 武荣伟⁵, 周婵⁶

^1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，乌鲁木齐 830011
^2.中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所，北京100029
^3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
^4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京100101
^5.重庆工商大学公共管理学院，重庆 400067
^6.中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院，深圳 518055

通讯作者: 张小雷
作者简介:张新焕（1978—），女，研究员，博士，研究方向为区域可持续发展，E-mail： zhangxh@ms.xjb.ac.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42101210);中科院先导科技专项(XDA2004040202);北京市社会科学基金(21JJC023┫。感谢北京师范大学地理科学学部地理数据与应用分析中心“全球新闻事件数据共享平台”支持)

Abstract

Abstract:

Geo-relationships both constrain and foster the geo-economy, underscoring the importance of favorable geo-relationships for advancing geo-economic cooperation. Previous studies have analyzed the geo-relationships involving "the Belt and Road", but a gap remains in exploring the temporal and spatial evolution of these relationships among the countries involved. This paper employs the GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone), an event database, to investigate the comprehensive characteristics and evolution of the geographic relationships between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road". The primary findings are as follows: ① The geopolitical relationship has transitioned through three stages: "cooperation priority, disagreements occur - cooperation increases, disagreements decrease-cooperation weakens, disagreements further decrease". ② A multi-category analysis reveals that within the geo-relationship between China and "the Belt and Road" countries, "speech augmentation events are concentrated in specific countries, while geopolitical segmentation events frequently occur in many countries". ③ From a multi-scale perspective, the geopolitical segmentation events on the national level exhibit an initial weakening followed by an increase, whereas the geopolitical augmentation events with neighboring countries display a recent downward trend. Analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the geopolitical relationship furnishes valuable insights for achieving a novel form of cooperation and a mutually beneficial relationship between China and "the Belt and Road" countries.

Key words: "the Belt and Road" Initiative, geopolitical relationship, GDELT, spatio-temporal evolution

摘要：

“一带一路”倡议的实施对促进沿线地区经济合作、互利共赢具有重要意义。基于全球事件GDELT数据库，分别从整体、多类别、多尺度等方面刻画了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的地缘关系总体特征及其演变过程。主要结论如下：①整体来看，中国与“一带一路”沿线国家历经了“合作为主、分歧较多”“合作增多、分歧减少”“合作稳定、分歧进一步减少”三个阶段；②中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系事件呈现出“言语促进事件为主且集中，地缘分割事件多国频发”的特点；③国家尺度上的地缘分割事件呈现出先减弱、后增加的趋势，且近年来中国与周边邻国的地缘促进指数呈下降趋势。分析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系的时空演变特征，可为我国与“一带一路”沿线国家实现新型合作共赢国家关系提供参考。

关键词: “一带一路”沿线国家, 地缘关系, GDELT, 时空演变

Xinhuan ZHANG, Xiaolei ZHANG, Lu ZHANG, Rongwei WU, Chan ZHOU. Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the geo-relationship between China and the countries along "the Belt & Road"[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(9): 17-27.

张新焕, 张小雷, 张璐, 武荣伟, 周婵. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系时空演变特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 17-27.

Figures/Tables 8

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板块	国家
东亚	中国、蒙古、韩国
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦
东南亚	文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南
南亚	阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、印度、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡
中东欧	俄罗斯、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、马其顿、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦、希腊
西亚	土耳其、巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、也门、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、伊拉克、伊朗、以色列、约旦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚、埃及、塞浦路斯

板块	国家
东亚	中国、蒙古、韩国
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦
东南亚	文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南
南亚	阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、印度、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡
中东欧	俄罗斯、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、马其顿、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦、希腊
西亚	土耳其、巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、也门、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、伊拉克、伊朗、以色列、约旦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚、埃及、塞浦路斯

事件类型	具体活动及其评分
言语合作	积极的公开声明（0.4，3.4）、呼吁（3.0）、表达合作意向（4.0）、商量（1.0）、开展外交合作（3.5）
实质合作	开展实质合作（6.0）、提供援助（7.0）、妥协（5.0）
言语冲突	消极的公开声明（－3.4，－0.4）、调查（－2.0）、要求（－5.0）、不赞成（－2.0）、拒绝（－4.0）、威胁（－6.0）、抗议（－6.5）
实质冲突	炫耀军事力量（－7.2）、减少关系（－4.0）、胁迫（－7.0）、攻击（－9.0）、对抗（－10.0）、使用非传统的大规模暴力（－10.0）

事件类型	具体活动及其评分
言语合作	积极的公开声明（0.4，3.4）、呼吁（3.0）、表达合作意向（4.0）、商量（1.0）、开展外交合作（3.5）
实质合作	开展实质合作（6.0）、提供援助（7.0）、妥协（5.0）
言语冲突	消极的公开声明（－3.4，－0.4）、调查（－2.0）、要求（－5.0）、不赞成（－2.0）、拒绝（－4.0）、威胁（－6.0）、抗议（－6.5）
实质冲突	炫耀军事力量（－7.2）、减少关系（－4.0）、胁迫（－7.0）、攻击（－9.0）、对抗（－10.0）、使用非传统的大规模暴力（－10.0）

次区域	地缘综合指数	言语促进			实质促进	言语分割		实质分割
次区域	地缘综合指数	事件占比/%	地缘综合指数	事件占比/%	地缘综合指数	事件占比/%	地缘综合指数	事件占比/%	地缘综合指数
中东欧	2.60	15.61	3.70	1.66	6.61	2.32	－3.10	1.06	－7.40
中亚	2.95	3.16	3.45	0.30	6.57	0.15	－3.08	0.18	－7.11
东亚	2.54	11.39	3.39	0.71	6.56	1.09	－2.83	0.66	－7.46
南亚	1.93	8.99	3.46	2.02	6.70	2.15	－2.95	1.35	－7.64
东南亚	1.42	20.01	3.19	3.07	6.66	5.68	－2.88	3.05	－7.46
西亚	2.44	11.06	3.52	1.65	6.68	1.72	－3.12	0.96	－7.43

Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the geo-relationship between China and the countries along "the Belt & Road"

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系时空演变特征

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