Evolution of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.06.2021550

Abstract

Abstract:

Energy trade and cooperation is a key field in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road Initiative". Carrying out a study on the evolution of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the "Belt and Road" (hereafter called the BRI countries) will help the BRI countries to strengthen cooperation in petroleum products trade. Taking petroleum products as the research object, this paper used the complex network method to analyze the dynamic evolution of the petroleum products trade network of the BRI countries since the 21st century and revealed the similarities and differences between the petroleum products trade network and the crude oil trade network through comparison. The results show that: (1)The petroleum products trade network is a small world network with core-periphery structure, which presents the characteristics of scale expansion, tightness increase and increasingly complex, and these characteristics are more significant than the crude oil trade network; (2)The spatial imbalance of petroleum products trade is significant, the petroleum trade forms a spatial pattern of radiation from hub nodes such as Singapore, Russia and Saudi Arabia, and convergence to hub nodes such as Singapore, China and Malaysia, and the status of hub nodes is increasingly strengthened; (3)The communities of the products trade network gradually gather. The petroleum products trade network gradually forms three stable communities with Russia, Singapore and the Middle East countries as the cores. China gradually separates from Russia's community and join Singapore's community. Finally, corresponding policy implications are provided based on the research results.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, petroleum products, trade network, complex network, China

摘要：

能源合作是共建“一带一路”的重点领域。开展“一带一路”沿线国家石油产品贸易网络演化研究有助于加强沿线国家在石油产品贸易上的合作。以石油产品为研究对象，运用复杂网络分析21世纪以来“一带一路”沿线国家石油产品贸易网络的动态演化，并揭示其与原油贸易网络的异同。研究发现：（1）石油产品贸易网络是“核心-边缘”式的小世界网络，呈现规模扩大、紧密性提升、结构日趋复杂的特征，且这些特征比原油贸易网络更显著；（2）石油产品贸易空间不均衡性显著，呈现出新加坡、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯等枢纽节点辐射，新加坡、中国、马来西亚等枢纽节点辐合为主的空间形态，枢纽节点地位日益强化；（3）石油产品贸易网络社团逐步聚拢，演化成以俄罗斯、新加坡和中东国家为核心的三大稳定社团，中国逐步“脱俄入新”。最后，根据研究结论提出了相应的政策建议和启示。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 石油产品, 贸易网络, 复杂网络, 中国

Kongchao ZHU, Yuan ZHAO, Siyou XIA, Qifan XIA, Panpan CUI. Evolution of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the "Belt and Road"[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(6): 28-38.

祝孔超, 赵媛, 夏四友, 夏启繁, 崔盼盼. “一带一路”沿线国家石油产品贸易网络演化分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(6): 28-38.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab.1 Indicators and their connotation of the petroleum products trade network

指标	公式	解释	含义
度	$k i i n = ∑ j = 1 N a j i; k i o u t = ∑ j = 1 N a i j$ $k i = k i i n + k i o u t$	指网络中与某节点直接相连的节点个数。式中：k_iⁱⁿ_、k_i^out_、k_i 分别是节点i的入度、出度、度，N是节点总数	反映国家在石油产品贸易网络中重要程度
度中心性指数	$C o u t = ∑ i = 1 N (k m a x o u t - k i o u t) N (N - 1) 2$ $C i n = ∑ i = 1 N (k m a x i n - k i i n) N (N - 1) 2$	使用Freeman^[28]提出的中心性指数测度网络节点的垄断和竞争程度。式中：C^out 和Cⁱⁿ 分别代表出口市场垄断和进口市场竞争程度	测度沿线国家石油产品贸易出口市场的垄断程度和进口市场的竞争程度
强度	$S i i n = ∑ j = 1 N w j i; S i o u t = ∑ j = 1 N w i j$ $S i = S i i n + S i o u t$	指网络中与某节点连接的边权重。式中： S_iⁱⁿ_、S_i^out_、S_i 分别是节点i入强度、出强度、强度	反映国家间石油产品贸易规模的大小
密度	$D = 2 M N (N - 1)$	网络中实际存在的关系总数(M)除以理论上最多可能存在的关系数	反映石油产品贸易网络国家间联系的紧密程度
平均最短路径长度	$L = 1 N (N - 1) ∑ i, j d (i, j)$	指网络中所有节点对之间最短路径经过边数的平均值。式中：d(i, j)是节点i和j之间最短路径经过的边数	反映国家间石油产品贸易联系的紧密程度
平均聚类系数	$C i = 2 e i k i (k i - 1); C ¯ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N C i$	指网络中与同一节点相连的2个节点之间相互连接的平均概率。式中：e_i 是与节点i相邻节点间存在的边数， $C ¯$ 是平均聚类系数	反映国家间石油产品贸易联系的聚集程度
社团检测	$Q = 1 m ∑ i ∑ j w i j - w i w j m δ c i, c j$	采用Blondel等^[29]开发的算法检测网络社团。式中：Q为有向加权网络的模块度， $m = ∑ i ∑ j w i j$ ，代表网络的全部链接权重之和， c_i 和c_j 分别是节点i和j所在社团，当i和j属于同一社团时，δ(c_i,c_j )为1，反之为0	可以识别国家在石油产品贸易网络中联系最紧密的群体以及国家在社团中的地位

Tab.1 Indicators and their connotation of the petroleum products trade network

指标	公式	解释	含义
度	$k i i n = ∑ j = 1 N a j i; k i o u t = ∑ j = 1 N a i j$ $k i = k i i n + k i o u t$	指网络中与某节点直接相连的节点个数。式中：k_iⁱⁿ_、k_i^out_、k_i 分别是节点i的入度、出度、度，N是节点总数	反映国家在石油产品贸易网络中重要程度
度中心性指数	$C o u t = ∑ i = 1 N (k m a x o u t - k i o u t) N (N - 1) 2$ $C i n = ∑ i = 1 N (k m a x i n - k i i n) N (N - 1) 2$	使用Freeman^[28]提出的中心性指数测度网络节点的垄断和竞争程度。式中：C^out 和Cⁱⁿ 分别代表出口市场垄断和进口市场竞争程度	测度沿线国家石油产品贸易出口市场的垄断程度和进口市场的竞争程度
强度	$S i i n = ∑ j = 1 N w j i; S i o u t = ∑ j = 1 N w i j$ $S i = S i i n + S i o u t$	指网络中与某节点连接的边权重。式中： S_iⁱⁿ_、S_i^out_、S_i 分别是节点i入强度、出强度、强度	反映国家间石油产品贸易规模的大小
密度	$D = 2 M N (N - 1)$	网络中实际存在的关系总数(M)除以理论上最多可能存在的关系数	反映石油产品贸易网络国家间联系的紧密程度
平均最短路径长度	$L = 1 N (N - 1) ∑ i, j d (i, j)$	指网络中所有节点对之间最短路径经过边数的平均值。式中：d(i, j)是节点i和j之间最短路径经过的边数	反映国家间石油产品贸易联系的紧密程度
平均聚类系数	$C i = 2 e i k i (k i - 1); C ¯ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N C i$	指网络中与同一节点相连的2个节点之间相互连接的平均概率。式中：e_i 是与节点i相邻节点间存在的边数， $C ¯$ 是平均聚类系数	反映国家间石油产品贸易联系的聚集程度
社团检测	$Q = 1 m ∑ i ∑ j w i j - w i w j m δ c i, c j$	采用Blondel等^[29]开发的算法检测网络社团。式中：Q为有向加权网络的模块度， $m = ∑ i ∑ j w i j$ ，代表网络的全部链接权重之和， c_i 和c_j 分别是节点i和j所在社团，当i和j属于同一社团时，δ(c_i,c_j )为1，反之为0	可以识别国家在石油产品贸易网络中联系最紧密的群体以及国家在社团中的地位

Tab.2 Statistics on the characteristics of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the “B & R”

统计特征	统计指标	年份
统计特征	统计指标	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2018
网络规模	节点数	60	61	63	63	63	64	64	63	64	62
	边数	672	768	829	987	999	1125	1229	1172	1271	1292
	密度	0.190	0.209	0.212	0.253	0.256	0.286	0.305	0.300	0.315	0.334
小世界性	平均聚类系数	0.457	0.473	0.474	0.507	0.511	0.553	0.584	0.598	0.598	0.614
小世界性	平均路径长度	1.975	1.884	1.913	1.834	1.811	1.737	1.730	1.738	1.727	1.652
中心性	平均度	11.2	12.6	13.2	15.7	15.9	18.1	19.2	18.6	19.9	20.4
中心性	平均强度	167.0	205.8	253.6	284.9	300.0	330.0	347.8	375.7	404.4	469.5

Fig.1 Cumulative degree distribution (a) and out-degree centrality and in-degree centrality （b） of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the “B & R”

Fig.2 Spatial pattern of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the “Belt & Road”

Fig.3 The cumulative out-strength （a） and in-strength （b） distributions of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the “Belt & Road”

Tab.3 The top 10 countries in terms of node’s out-strength and in-strength （105 t）

排名	2001年				排名	2007年
排名	国家	出强度	国家	入强度	排名	国家	出强度	国家	入强度
1	新加坡	323.2	新加坡	237.1	1	新加坡	429.8	新加坡	359.5
2	中国	139.0	沙特阿拉伯	138.7	2	中国	240.4	俄罗斯	269.2
3	印度尼西亚	125.6	俄罗斯	111.1	3	印度尼西亚	168.4	马来西亚	174.9
4	泰国	55.3	马来西亚	88.1	4	印度	102.7	科威特	166.0
5	马来西亚	46.5	科威特	61.4	5	马来西亚	97.8	沙特阿拉伯	124.1
6	越南	45.2	中国	46.1	6	土耳其	86.6	阿联酋	104.5
7	黎巴嫩	32.8	阿联酋	45.7	7	巴基斯坦	86.1	印度	88.3
8	捷克	17.4	伊朗	39.8	8	孟加拉国	60.2	印度尼西亚	64.0
9	土耳其	17.3	泰国	38.6	9	越南	53.9	中国	62.3
10	乌克兰	15.5	斯洛伐克	21.5	10	乌克兰	48.1	泰国	52.3
排名	2013年				排名	2018年
排名	国家	出强度	国家	入强度	排名	国家	出强度	国家	入强度
1	新加坡	564.8	新加坡	471.9	1	新加坡	754.0	新加坡	580.7
2	中国	292.7	马来西亚	314.6	2	中国	391.3	俄罗斯	427.8
3	印度尼西亚	249.7	俄罗斯	291.8	3	马来西亚	297.6	马来西亚	340.3
4	马来西亚	196.9	阿联酋	176.6	4	印度尼西亚	233.1	中国	269.2
5	巴基斯坦	119.8	印度	159.9	5	阿联酋	173.1	阿联酋	268.6
6	土耳其	99.6	科威特	118.0	6	土耳其	156.0	印度	224.1
7	阿曼	64.0	沙特阿拉伯	94.8	7	巴基斯坦	108.4	沙特阿拉伯	189.5
8	乌克兰	63.4	中国	94.2	8	乌克兰	75.8	科威特	95.0
9	越南	55.6	泰国	79.1	9	缅甸	74.0	伊拉克	78.4
10	孟加拉国	55.6	印度尼西亚	58.5	10	埃及	65.0	泰国	78.2

Fig. 4 Community structure of the petroleum products trade network of countries along the “Belt and Road”

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